Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Florian Pappenberger  Patrick Matgen  Keith J. Beven  Jean-Baptiste Henry  Laurent Pfister  Paul Fraipont de 《Advances in water resources》2006

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.  相似文献   

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK     

Marcos E. C. Bernardes  Mark A. Davidson  Keith R. Dyer  Ken J. George 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(3-4):186-197

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.  相似文献   

Reducing standard errors by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into a measurement scheme for soil carbon credits     

Siân Mooney  Ken Gerow  John Antle  Susan Capalbo  Keith Paustian 《Climatic change》2007,80(1-2):55-72

Several studies have suggested that geostatistical techniques could be employed to reduce overall transactions costs associated with contracting for soil C credits by increasing the efficacy of sampling protocols used to measure C-credits. In this paper, we show how information about the range of spatial autocorrelation can be used in a measurement scheme to reduce the size of the confidence intervals that bound estimates of the mean number of C-credits generated per hectare. A tighter confidence interval around the mean number of C-credits sequestered could increase producer payments for each hectare enrolled in a contract to supply C-credits. An empirical application to dry land cropping systems in three regions of Montana shows that information about the spatial autocorrelation exhibited by soil C could be extremely valuable for reducing transactions costs associated with contracts for C-credits but the benefits are not uniform across all regions or cropping systems. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation greatly reduced the standard errors and narrowed the confidence intervals associated with sample estimates of the mean number of C-credits produced per hectare. For the payment mechanism considered in this paper, tighter confidence intervals around the mean number of C-credits created per hectare enrolled could increase producer payments by more than 100 percent under a C-contract.  相似文献   

Analysis of I in groundwater samples: Direct and quantitative results below the drinking water standard     

Christopher F. Brown  Keith N. GeiszlerMichael J. Lindberg 《Applied Geochemistry》2007

This paper highlights an analytical method based on mass measurement that can be used to directly quantify ¹²⁹I in groundwater samples at concentrations below the maximum contaminant level (MCL) without the need for sample pre-concentration or extraction. Samples were analyzed on a Perkin Elmer ELAN DRC II ICP-MS after minimal dilution using O₂ as the reaction gas. Analysis of continuing calibration verification standards indicated that the dynamic reaction cell (DRC) mode could be used for quantitative analysis of ¹²⁹I in samples below the MCL (0.0057 ng/mL or 1 pCi/L). The low analytical detection limit of ¹²⁹I analysis in the DRC mode coupled with minimal sample dilution (1.02x) resulted in a final estimated quantification limit of 0.0051 ng/mL. Subsequent analysis of three groundwater samples containing ¹²⁹I resulted in fully quantitative results in the DRC mode, and spike recovery analyses performed on all three samples confirmed that the groundwater matrix did not adversely impact the analysis of ¹²⁹I in the DRC mode. This analytical approach has been proven to be a cost-effective, high-throughput technique for the direct, quantitative analysis of ¹²⁹I in groundwater samples at environmentally relevant concentrations that reach below the current MCL.  相似文献   

Variations in the crustal structure beneath western Turkey   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Paul Saunders  Keith Priestley  & Tuncay Taymaz 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,134(2):373-389

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The kinematics of the ionized gas in the Circinus galaxy     

Marc Elmouttie  Bärbel Koribalski  Scott Gordon  Keith Taylor  Sally Houghton  Tracy Lavezzi  Raymond Haynes  & Keith Jones 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(1):49-68

The TAURUS-2 Fabry–Perot interferometer, mounted on the 3.9-m Anglo-Australian Telescope, has been used to observe the Circinus galaxy. We have mapped the intensity and velocity distribution of the ionized hydrogen in the galaxy using the Balmer series Hα spectral line.
The semiresolved core (observed with a seeing disc of 30 pc) appears amorphous in shape, which is commonly observed in Seyfert 2 galaxies. Its peak coincides with the core position measured in the radio continuum, suggesting that ionized gas surrounds a non-thermal source.
A circumnuclear ring or spiral of radius 220 pc and a rotational velocity of 350 km s⁻¹ (assuming circular motions) surrounds the core. The inclination angle of this feature, i =40°±10°, is less than that of the previously observed radio continuum disc. The velocity channel maps obtained for the Hα ring show that the kinematics resemble those of a rotating ring and the intensity displays a complex structure indicative of several, unresolved, H II regions. We believe the ring to represent a circumnuclear starburst.
Our Hα data also show the presence of the previously detected [O III ] ionization cone to the north-west of the core, measuring more than 400 pc in length. We suggest that the ionization cone lies in a different plane from that of the starburst ring and is directed away from us. Several kinematic components of the core are derived and we calculate an outflow velocity in excess of 150–200 km s⁻¹ for gas above the core of Circinus. We also present evidence for inflowing ionized gas at the centre of Circinus.
The correlation of the Hα and radio continuum features is discussed, as well as the possible presence of a starburst-driven superwind in the Circinus galaxy.  相似文献   

The 1996 outburst of GRO J1655–40: the challenge of interpreting the multiwavelength spectra     

R. I. Hynes  C. A. Haswell  C. R. Shrader  W. Chen  Keith Horne  E. T. Harlaftis  K. O'Brien  C. Hellier  & R. P. Fender 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,300(1):64-82

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AN ALL-TEFLON BAILER AND AN AIR-DRIVEN PUMP FOR EVACUATING SMALL-DIAMETER GROUND-WATER WELLS     

Daniel F. Buss  Keith E. Bandt 《Ground water》1981,19(4):429-431

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Minerals produced during cooling and hydrothermal alteration of ash flow tuff from Yellowstone drill hole Y-5     

Terry E.C. Keith  L.J.P. Muffler 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1978,3(3-4)

A rhyolitic ash-flow tuff in a hydrothermally active area within the Yellowstone caldera was drilled in 1967, and cores were studied to determine the nature and distribution of primary and secondary mineral phases. The rocks have undergone a complex history of crystallization and hydrothermal alteration since their emplacement 600,000 years ago. During cooling from magmatic temperatures, the glassy groundmass underwent either devitrification to alkali feldspar + α-cristobalite ± tridymite or granophyric crystallization to alkali feldspar + quartz. Associated with the zones of granophyric crystallization are prismatic quartz crystals in cavities similar to those termed miarolitic in plutonic rocks. Vapor-phase alkali feldspar, tridymite, magnetite, and sporadic α-cristobalite were deposited in cavities and in void spaces of pumice fragments. Subsequently, some of the vapor-phase alkali feldspar crystals were replaced by microcrystalline quartz, and the vapor-phase minerals were frosted by a coating of saccharoidal quartz.Hydrothermal minerals occur primarily as linings and fillings of cavities and fractures and as altered mafic phenocrysts. Chalcedony is the dominant mineral related to the present hydrothermal regime and occurs as microcrystalline material mixed with various amounts of hematite and goethite. The chalcedony displays intricate layering and was apparently deposited as opal from silica-rich water. Hematite and goethite also replace both mafic phenocrysts and vapor-phase magnetite. Other conspicuous hydrothermal minerals include montmorillonite, pyrite, mordenite, calcite, and fluorite. Clinoptilolite, erionite, illite, kaolinite, and manganese oxides are sporadic. The hydrothermal minerals show little correlation with temperature, but bladed calcite is restricted to a zone of boiling in the tuff and clearly was deposited when CO₂ was lost during boiling.Fractures and breccias filled with chalcedony are common throughout Y-5 and may have been produced by rapid disruption of rock caused by sudden decrease of fluid pressure in fractures, most likely a result of fracturing during resurgent doming in this part of the Yellowstone caldera. The chalcedony probably was deposited as opal or β-cristobalite from a pre-existing silica floc that moved rapidly into the fractures and breccias immediately after the sudden pressure drop.  相似文献   

Long base line tilt and strain measurement     

Paul Davis  Keith Evans  John Hosfall  Geoffrey King 《Tectonophysics》1979,52(1-4)

Two types of noise afflict strain and tilt measurement. They may be categorized as “active” noise, which is due to atmospheric pressure variations, temperature variations, water-table variations and so forth; and “passive” or signal-generated noise which is a consequence of the interaction of the strain field of interest with inhomogeneities of material properties local to the measurement site.The reason why both types of noise are normally reduced by the use of long base line instruments is explained and a simple, practical long base line tiltmeter is described.  相似文献