Statistical properties of optical refractive index fluctuations in the marine boundary layer     

R. A. Antonia  A. J. Chambers  C. A. Friehe 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1978,15(2):243-253

The optical refractive index fluctuation has been determined from measurements of turbulent temperature and humidity fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer over the ocean. Probability density, spectral density and even- and odd-order structure functions of the refractive index fluctuation are presented. The spectral density exhibits a significant -5/3 inertial subrange as a result of the existence of a -5/3 subrange in the spectra of temperature and humidity fluctuations and in the temperature-humidity co-spectrum. The behaviour in the inertial subrange of fourth- and sixth-order structure functions of the refractive index is in reasonable agreement with that predicted by the analysis of Antonia and Van Atta (1975, 1978). The third-order structure functions of the refractive index exhibit an approximately linear dependence on separation in the inertial subrange, in agreement with a ramp model for the large coherent structure of the motion.  相似文献   

Accuracy of moments of velocity and scalar fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer     

K. R. Sreenivasan  A. J. Chambers  R. A. Antonia 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1978,14(3):341-359

A detailed accuracy analysis is presented for moments, up to order four, of both velocity (horizontal u and vertical w) and scalar (temperature and humidity q) fluctuations, as well as of the products uw, w and wq, in the atmospheric surface layer. The high-order moments and integral time scales required for this analysis are evaluated from data obtained at a height of about 5 m above the ocean surface under stability conditions corresponding to Z/L \- –0.05. Measured moments and probability density functions of some of the individual fluctuations show departures from Gaussianity, but these are sufficiently small to enable good estimates to be obtained using Gaussian instead of measured moments. For the products, the assumption of joint Gaussianity for individual fluctuations provides a reasonable, though somewhat conservative, estimate for the integration times required. The concept of Reynolds number similarity implies that differences in integration time requirements for flows at different Reynolds numbers arise exclusively from differences in integral time scales. A first approximation to the integral time scales relevant to atmospheric flows is presented.  相似文献   

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Chun Kit Ho  Ed Hawkins  Len Shaffrey  Fiona M. Underwood 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):917-935

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

Bromide as a conservative tracer for soil-water studies     

B. S. Levy  R. M. Chambers 《水文研究》1987,1(4):385-389

The assumption that potassium bromide is a conservative tracer for soil-water studies was tested in a series of batch sorption experiments. Sorption experiments were conducted on soil samples collected from the O, E, and A horizons of the Albemarle soil series near Charlottesville, VA. The experiments were conducted under conditions of differing bromide concentration and filter treatments. Bromide concentrations in soil-solution mixtures were measured through time using an Orion bromide-specific electrode. An analysis of variance of results showed no significant sorption of bromide through time under any concentration level or filter treatment (α = 0·01). No sorption of bromide between different soil horizons could be determined. This work clearly indicates that bromide is conservative under the conditions examined.  相似文献   

Iron and Pyritization in Wetland Soils of the Florida Coastal Everglades     

Paul Julian  Randy Chambers  Timothy Russell 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(3):822-831

We explored environmental factors influencing soil pyrite formation within different wetland regions of Everglades National Park. Within the Shark River Slough (SRS) region, soils had higher organic matter (62.65 ± 1.88 %) and lower bulk density (0.19 ± 0.01 g cm^?3) than soils within Taylor Slough (TS; 14.35 ± 0.82 % and 0.45 ± 0.01 g cm^?3, respectively), Panhandle (Ph; 15.82 ± 1.37 % and 0.34 ± 0.009 g cm^?3, respectively), and Florida Bay (FB; 5.63 ± 0.19 % and 0.73 ± 0.02 g cm^?3, respectively) regions. Total reactive sulfide and extractable iron (Fe) generally were greatest in soils from the SRS region, and the degree of pyritization (DOP) was higher in soils from both SRS (0.62 ± 0.02) and FB (0.52 ± 0.03) regions relative to TS and Ph regions (0.30 ± 0.02 and 0.31 ± 0.02, respectively). Each region, however, had different potential limits to pyrite formation, with SRS being Fe and sulfide limited and FB being Fe and organic matter limited. Due to the calcium-rich soils of TS and Ph regions, DOP was relatively suppressed. Annual water flow volume was positively correlated with soil DOP. Soil DOP also varied in relation to distance from water management features and soil percent organic matter. We demonstrate the potential use of soil DOP as a proxy for soil oxidation state, thereby facilitating comparisons of wetland soils under different flooding regimes, e.g., spatially or between wet years versus dry years. Despite its low total abundance, Fe plays an important role in sulfur dynamics and other biogeochemical cycles that characterize wetland soils of the Florida coastal Everglades.  相似文献   

Seasonal effects on geophysical–geotechnical relationships and their implications for electrical resistivity tomography monitoring of slopes     

R. M. Hen-Jones  P. N. Hughes  R. A. Stirling  S. Glendinning  J. E. Chambers  D. A. Gunn  Y. J. Cui 《Acta Geotechnica》2017,12(5):1159-1173

Current assessments of slope stability rely on point sensors, the results of which are often difficult to interpret, have relatively high costs and do not provide large-area coverage. A new system is under development, based on integrated geophysical–geotechnical sensors to monitor groundwater conditions via electrical resistivity tomography. So that this system can provide end users with reliable information, it is essential that the relationships between resistivity, shear strength, suction and water content are fully resolved, particularly where soils undergo significant cycles of drying and wetting, with associated soil fabric changes. This paper presents a study to establish these relationships for a remoulded clay taken from a test site in Northumberland, UK. A rigorous testing programme has been undertaken, integrating the results of multi-scalar laboratory and field experiments, comparing two-point and four-point resistivity testing methods. Shear strength and water content were investigated using standard methods, whilst a soil water retention curve was derived using a WP4 dewpoint potentiometer. To simulate seasonal effects, drying and wetting cycles were imposed on prepared soil specimens. Results indicated an inverse power relationship between resistivity and water content with limited hysteresis between drying and wetting cycles. Soil resistivity at lower water contents was, however, observed to increase with ongoing seasonal cycling. Linear hysteretic relationships were established between undrained shear strength and water content, principally affected by two mechanisms: soil fabric deterioration and soil suction loss between drying and wetting events. These trends were supported by images obtained from scanning electron microscopy.  相似文献   

Effects of watershed land use on sources and nutritional value of particulate organic matter in temperate headwater streams   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Yue Han Lu  Elizabeth A. Canuel  James E. Bauer  R. M. Chambers 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2014,76(3):419-436

Suspended particulate organic matter (POM) in headwater streams is an important source of food and energy to stream food webs. In order to determine the effects of watershed land use on the sources and characteristics of POM, we compared the lipid composition of POM (fatty acid, aliphatic alcohol and sterol) from streams influenced by different types of watershed land use. Eight first-order streams discharging to the York River Estuary (Virginia, USA) were sampled during baseflow conditions bi-monthly from February to November 2009, including streams draining forest-dominated, pasture-dominated, cropland-dominated, and urban land-dominated watersheds. Allochthonous vs. autochthonous lipids showed that POM in most of these streams was dominated by allochthonous sources (59.5 ± 14.2 vs. 39.6 ± 14.5 % for aliphatic alcohols and 52.9 ± 11.5 vs. 34.1 ± 10.3 % for sterols). The relative abundance of allochthonous vs. autochthonous lipid inputs to POM varied as a function of land use type. POM in streams draining forest-dominated watersheds contained a higher proportion of allochthonous lipids and a lower proportion of autochthonous lipids than the streams influenced by human land use. The contribution of bacterial fatty acids differed significantly among sampling times (P = 0.003), but not among land use types (P = 0.547). Stepwise linear regression model selected nitrate and temperature as the best predictors of variation in bacterial inputs to POM. Proxies used to assess the nutritional value of POM potentially available to stream consumers included C:N ratios, and the concentrations of total long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, eicosapentaenoic acid, arachidonic acid, and cholesterol. None of these nutritional proxies differed among sampling months (P ≥ 0.171), but the proxies showed that the nutritional value of POM in forest streams was lower than in urban streams. Collectively, these findings suggest that human land use in upstream watersheds alters the source composition and nutritional value of stream POM, which not only impacts food quality for stream biota, but also potentially changes the characteristics of OM reaching downstream ecosystems.  相似文献   

Relationships between molecular bacterial diversity and chemistry of groundwater in the Wairarapa Valley,New Zealand     

KA Sirisena  CJ Daughney  M Moreau  KG Ryan  GK Chambers 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(4):524-539

Groundwater plays an important role in New Zealand water supplies and hence monitoring activities are conducted regularly. Most monitoring programmes aim to evaluate groundwater chemistry and almost completely overlook the microbial component in this ecosystem. In our present study, the bacterial community structure of groundwater in the Wairarapa Valley was examined using the terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP), and relationships between bacterial community structure and groundwater chemistry, aquifer confinement and groundwater usage were explored. In addition, the results from this study were compared with a previous T-RFLP survey of the same area in an attempt to detect changes in bacterial community structure over time. The data obtained suggested that bacterial community structure was related to groundwater chemistry, especially to redox conditions. Species composition showed minimal variation over time if groundwater chemistry remained unchanged. These findings reflect the potential of using bacterial communities as biological indicators to evaluate the health of groundwater ecosystems. We suggest that it is important to include this type of broad bacterial diversity assessment criteria into regular groundwater monitoring activities.  相似文献   

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGWD): an unseen yet potentially important coastal phenomenon in Canada     

A. G. Bobba  P. A. Chambers  F. J. Wrona 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(3):991-1012

Both terrestrial and fresh or marine forces drive underground fluid flows in the coastal zone. Hydraulic gradients on land result in groundwater seepage near shore and may contribute to flows from confined aquifers further out on the shelf. The terrestrial and oceanic forces overlap spatially, so measured fluid advection through coastal sediments may be a result of composite forcing. “Subsurface/submarine groundwater discharge” (SGWD) can be defined as any and all flow of water on continental margins from the seabed to the coast, regardless of fluid composition or driving force. SGWD is typically characterized by low specific flow rates, making detection and quantification difficult. However, because such flows occur over very large areas, the total flux is significant. Discharging fluids, whether derived from land or composed of re-circulated seawater, will react with sediment components. These reactions may substantially increase the concentrations of nutrients, carbon, and metals in the fluids. These fluids are thus a source of biogeochemically important constituents to the coast. Terrestrially derived fluids represent a pathway for the flux of new material to the coast. This may result in diffuse pollution in areas where the discharge of contaminated groundwater occurs. This review presents an historical context of SGWD studies, defines the process in a form that is consistent with our current understanding of the driving forces as well as our assessment techniques, and reviews the estimated global fluxes and biogeochemical implications. This review concludes that, to fully characterize marine geochemical budgets, one must give due consideration to SGWD. New methodologies, technologies, and modeling approaches are required to discriminate among the various forces that drive SGWD, pollutants to evaluate these fluxes more precisely to Canadian coast.  相似文献