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11.
Trevor C. Hall Andrea M. Sealy Tannecia S. Stephenson Shoji Kusunoki Michael A. Taylor A. Anthony Chen Akio Kitoh 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(1-2):271-287
Present-day (1979–2003) and future (2075–2099) simulations of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature are examined using data from the Meteorological Research Institute super-high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Analyses are performed over the 20-km model grid for (1) a main Caribbean basin, (2) sub-regional zones, and (3) specific Caribbean islands. Though the model’s topography underestimates heights over the eastern Caribbean, it captures well the present-day spatial and temporal variations of seasonal and annual climates. Temperature underestimations range from 0.1 °C to 2 °C with respect to the Japanese Reanalysis and the Climatic Research Unit datasets. The model also captures fairly well sub-regional scale variations in the rainfall climatology. End-of-century projections under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A1B scenario indicate declines in rainfall amounts by 10–20 % for most of the Caribbean during the early (May–July) and late (August–October) rainy seasons relative to the 1979–2003 baselines. The early dry season (November–January) is also projected to get wetter in the far north and south Caribbean by approximately 10 %. The model also projects a warming of 2–3 °C over the Caribbean region. Analysis of future climate extremes indicate a 5–10 % decrease in the simple daily precipitation intensity but no significant change in the number of consecutive dry days for Cuba, Jamaica, southern Bahamas, and Haiti. There is also indication that the number of hot days and nights will significantly increase over the main Caribbean basin. 相似文献
12.
Md. Mizanur Rahman M. Rafiuddin Md. Mahbub Alam Shoji Kusunoki Akio Kitoh F. Giorgi 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):793-807
Summer monsoon rainfall was simulated by a global 20 km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), focusing on the changes in the summer monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. Calibration and validation of AGCM were performed over Bangladesh for generating summer monsoon rainfall scenarios. The model-produced summer monsoon rainfall was calibrated with a ground-based observational data in Bangladesh during the period 1979–2003. The TRMM 3B43 V6 data are also used for understanding the model performance. The AGCM output obtained through validation process made it confident to be used for near future and future summer monsoon rainfall projection in Bangladesh. In the present-day (1979–2003) climate simulations, the high-resolution AGCM produces the summer monsoon rainfall better as a spatial distribution over SAARC region in comparison with TRMM but magnitude may be different. Summer monsoon rainfall projection for Bangladesh was experimentally obtained for near future and future during the period 2015–2034 and 2075–2099, respectively. This work reveals that summer monsoon rainfall simulated by a high-resolution AGCM is not directly applicable to application purpose. However, acceptable performance was obtained in estimating summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh after calibration and validation. This study predicts that in near future, summer monsoon rainfall on an average may decrease about ?0.5 % during the period 2015–2034 and future summer monsoon rainfall may increase about 0.4 % during the period 2075–2099. 相似文献
13.
K. Rajendran A. Kitoh J. Srinivasan R. Mizuta R. Krishnan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(4):555-571
In this study, the authors have investigated the likely future changes in the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats (WG) orographic region of India in response to global warming, using time-slice simulations of an ultra high-resolution global climate model and climate datasets of recent past. The model with approximately 20-km mesh horizontal resolution resolves orographic features on finer spatial scales leading to a quasi-realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of the present-day summer monsoon rainfall over India and trends in monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India. As a result, a higher degree of confidence appears to emerge in many aspects of the 20-km model simulation, and therefore, we can have better confidence in the validity of the model prediction of future changes in the climate over WG mountains. Our analysis suggests that the summer mean rainfall and the vertical velocities over the orographic regions of Western Ghats have significantly weakened during the recent past and the model simulates these features realistically in the present-day climate simulation. Under future climate scenario, by the end of the twenty-first century, the model projects reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghats south of 16°N that is found to be associated with drastic reduction in the southwesterly winds and moisture transport into the region, weakening of the summer mean meridional circulation and diminished vertical velocities. We show that this is due to larger upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface and lower levels, which decreases the lapse rate causing an increase in vertical moist static stability (which in turn inhibits vertical ascent) in response to global warming. Increased stability that weakens vertical velocities leads to reduction in large-scale precipitation which is found to be the major contributor to summer mean rainfall over WG orographic region. This is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall days over WG which is a typical manifestation of the decrease in large-scale precipitation over this region. Thus, the drastic reduction of vertical ascent and weakening of circulation due to ??upper tropospheric warming effect?? predominates over the ??moisture build-up effect?? in reducing the rainfall over this narrow orographic region. This analysis illustrates that monsoon rainfall over mountainous regions is strongly controlled by processes and parameterized physics which need to be resolved with adequately high resolution for accurate assessment of local and regional-scale climate change. 相似文献
14.
New and previous versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models are used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Fifteen ensemble experiments are performed under the International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. Most of the ensemble future (2075–2099) experiments do not project significant future changes in the basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) in TC frequency over the Arabian Sea and a decrease (by 31 %) in the Bay of Bengal. Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked seasonal variation in the NIO: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the post-monsoon season. Several large-scale thermodynamic and dynamical parameters are analysed to elucidate the physical mechanism responsible for the future changes in TC activity; this analysis reveals a seasonal dependence of the relative contribution of these parameters to the projected future changes in TC genesis frequency. 相似文献
15.
The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
K. R. Sperber H. Annamalai I.-S. Kang A. Kitoh A. Moise A. Turner B. Wang T. Zhou 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2711-2744
The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late twentieth Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space–time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data. 相似文献
16.
East Asian summer monsoon simulation by a 20-km mesh AGCM 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
East Asian summer monsoon climate simulated by a global 20-km mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by
the global sea surface temperature during the period 1979–1998 is investigated. In comparison with a lower resolution (180-km
mesh) model experiment, it is revealed that the 20-km mesh AGCM shows the superiority in simulating orographic rainfall not
only its location but also its amount. The Baiu frontal structure is also better simulated in the higher resolution model,
which leads to stronger Baiu rainfall. The 20-km model also shows more intense extremes in precipitation. Interannual variability
of June–August mean precipitation and seasonal march of the monsoon rain band are also investigated.
This paper is a contribution to the AMIP-CMIP Diagnostic Sub-project on General Circulation Model Simulation of the East Asian
Climate, coordinated by W.-C. Wang. 相似文献
17.
Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject 总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16
18.
Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs 总被引：24，自引：2，他引：24
19.
A multi-model analysis of the role of the ocean on the African and Indian monsoon during the mid-Holocene 总被引：1，自引：6，他引：1
Y. Zhao P. Braconnot O. Marti S.P. Harrison C. Hewitt A. Kitoh Z. Liu U. Mikolajewicz B. Otto-Bliesner S.L. Weber 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(7-8):777-800
We investigate the role of the ocean feedback on the climate in response to insolation forcing during the mid-Holocene (6,000 year
BP) using results from seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. We examine how the dipole in late summer
sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic increases the length of the African monsoon, how this dipole
structure is created and maintained, and how the late summer SST warming in the northwest Indian Ocean affects the monsoon
retreat in this sector. Similar mechanisms are found in all of the models, including a strong wind evaporation feedback and
changes in the mixed layer depth that enhance the insolation forcing, as well as increased Ekman transport in the Atlantic
that sharpens the Atlantic dipole pattern. We also consider changes in interannual variability over West Africa and the Indian
Ocean. The teleconnection between variations in SST and Sahelian precipitation favor a larger impact of the Atlantic dipole
mode in this region. In the Indian Ocean, the strengthening of the Indian dipole structure in autumn has a damping effect
on the Indian dipole mode at the interannual time scale. 相似文献
20.
East Asian winter monsoon: results from eight AMIP models 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Y. Zhang K. R. Sperber J. S. Boyle M. Dix L. Ferranti A. Kitoh K. M. Lau K. Miyakoda D. Randall L. Takacs R. Wetherald 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(11):797-820
This study evaluates simulations of the East Asian winter monsoon in eight GCMs that participated in the Atmospheric Model
Intercomparison Project (AMIP). In addition to validating the mean state of the winter monsoon, the cold surge and its transient
properties, which includes the frequency, intensity, preferred propagation tracks, and the evolution patterns of the surges,
are examined. GCM simulated temporal distribution of the Siberian high and cold surges is also discussed. Finally, the forcing
of the cold surges on the tropical surface wind and convection, along with their interannual variation is analyzed. The mean
state of the winter monsoon is generally portrayed well in most of the models. These include the climatological position of
the Siberian high, the 200 hPa divergent center, and the large-scale wind patterns at the surface and the 200 hPa. Models
display a wide range of skill in simulating the cold surge and its transient properties. In some of the models, the simulated
cold surge trajectory, intensity, frequency, propagation patterns and source regions are in general agreement with those from
the observed. While in others, the models cannot adequately capture these observed characteristics. The temporal distribution
of the Siberian high and cold surges were realistically reproduced in most GCMs. Most models were able to simulate the effect
of the cold surges on the tropical surface wind, although a few models unrealistically generated subtropical southerly wind
in the mid-winter. The relationship between cold surges and the tropical convection was not satisfactorily simulated in most
models. The common discrepancies in the winter monsoon simulation can be attributed to many factors. In some models, the reason
is directly related to the improper location of the large-scale convective center near the western Pacific. The satisfactory
simulations of the monsoon circulation and the cold surges are partly due to the topographical characteristics of the East
Asian continent, i.e., the Tibetan Plateau to the west and the oceans to the east. The correct simulation of the interannual
variation of the surface wind near the South China Sea (SCS) and the maritime continent is a demanding task for most of the
models. This will require adequate simulations of many aspects, including tropical convection, the Siberian cold dome, the
extratropical-tropical linkage, and the air-sea interaction. The discrepancies noted here furnish a guide for the continuing
improvement of the winter monsoon simulations. Improved simulations will lead to an adequate delineation of the surface wind
and convection near the maritime continent, which is essential for portraying the winter monsoon forcing in a coupled model.
Received: 10 March 1997/Accepted: 4 June 1997 相似文献