Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation     

Akio Kitoh 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):261-272

There is a close relationship between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (drought conditions over India accompany warm ENSO events and vice versa). However, recent observations suggest a weakening of this ENSO-monsoon relationship that may be linked to global warming. We report here an analysis of the ENSO-monsoon relationship within the framework of a 1000-year control simulation of the MRI-coupled general circulation model (GCM), MRI-CGCM2.2. An overall correlation between the June-July-August (JJA) Nino3.4 sea surface temperature and the JJA Indian monsoon rainfall is –0.39, with reasonable circulation characteristics associated with the modeled ENSO. The simulated ENSO-monsoon relationship reveals long-term variations, from –0.71 to +0.07, in moving 31-year windows. This modulation in the ENSO-monsoon relationship is associated with decadal variability of the climate system.  相似文献   

Evaluation of coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene using palaeovegetation data from the northern hemisphere extratropics     

J. Wohlfahrt  S. P. Harrison  P. Braconnot  C. D. Hewitt  A. Kitoh  U. Mikolajewicz  B. L. Otto-Bliesner  S. L. Weber 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(7-8):871-890

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.  相似文献   

Changes in climate classification and extreme climate indices from a high-resolution future projection in Korea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kyung-Sook Yun  Ki-Young Heo  Jung-Eun Chu  Kyung-Ja Ha  Eun-Jeong Lee  Yumi Choi  Akio Kitoh 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2012,48(3):213-226

We investigate the future changes in the climate zone and six extreme temperature indices in Korea, using the 20-km high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM3.1S). The Trewartha and K?ppen climate classification schemes are applied, and four summer-based extreme temperature indices (i.e., summer days, tropical nights, growing degree days, and cooling degree days (CDD) and two winter-based indices (frost days and heating degree days (HDD) are analyzed. To represent significantly the change in threshold indices, the monthly mean bias is corrected in model. The model result reasonably captures the temporal and spatial distribution of the present-day extreme temperatures associated with topography. It was found that in the future climate, the area of the subtropical climate zone in Korea expands northward and increases by 21% under the Trewartha classification scheme and by 35% under the K?ppen classification scheme. The spatial change in extreme climate indices is significantly modulated by geographical characteristics in relation to land-ocean thermal inertia and topographical effects. The change is manifested more in coastal regions than in inland regions, except for that in summer days and HDD. Regions with higher indices in the present climate tend to reveal a larger increase in the future climate. The summer-based indices display an increasing trend, while the winter-based indices show a decreasing trend. The most significant increase is in tropical nights (+452%), whereas the most significant decrease is in HDD (?25%). As an important indicator of energy-saving applications, the changes in HDD and CDD are compared in terms of the frequency and intensity. The future changes in CDD reveal a higher frequency but a lower temperature than those in HDD. The more frequent changes in CDD may be due to a higher and less dispersed occurrence probability of extreme temperatures during the warm season. The greater increase in extreme temperature events during the summer season remains an important implication of projecting future changes in extreme climate events.  相似文献   

STOIC: a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions   总被引：13，自引：4，他引：13  

M. Davey  M. Huddleston  K. Sperber  P. Braconnot  F. Bryan  D. Chen  R. Colman  C. Cooper  U. Cubasch  P. Delecluse  D. DeWitt  L. Fairhead  G. Flato  C. Gordon  T. Hogan  M. Ji  M. Kimoto  A. Kitoh  T. Knutson  M. Latif  H. Le Treut  T. Li  S. Manabe  C. Mechoso  G. Meehl  S. Power  E. Roeckner  L. Terray  A. Vintzileos  R. Voss  B. Wang  W. Washington  I. Yoshikawa  J. Yu  S. Yukimoto  S. Zebiak 《Climate Dynamics》2002,18(5):403-420

  相似文献   

AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

D. E. Waliser  K. Jin  I.-S. Kang  W. F. Stern  S. D. Schubert  M. L. C. Wu  K.-M. Lau  M.-I. Lee  V. Krishnamurthy  A. Kitoh  G. A. Meehl  V. Y. Galin  V. Satyan  S. K. Mandke  G. Wu  Y. Liu  C.-K. Park 《Climate Dynamics》2003,21(5-6):423-446

The intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by a number of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are analyzed and assessed against observations. The model data comes from the Monsoon GCM Intercomparison project initiated by the CLIVAR/Asian–Australian Monsoon Panel. Ten GCM groups, i.e., the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA), Institute of Numerical Mathematics (DNM), Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Seoul National University (SNU), and the State University of New York (SUNY), participated in the intraseasonal component of the project. Each performed a set of 10 ensemble simulations for 1 September 1996–31 August 1998 using the same observed weekly SST values but with different initial conditions. The focus is on the spatial and seasonal variations associated with intraseasonal variability (ISV) of rainfall, the structure of each model's principal mode of spatial-temporal variation of rainfall [i.e. their depiction of the Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO)], the teleconnection patterns associated with each model's ISO, and the implications of the models' ISV on seasonal monsoon predictability. The results show that several of the models exhibit ISV levels at or above that found in observations with spatial patterns of ISV that resemble the observed pattern. This includes a number of rather detailed features, including the relative distribution of variability between ocean and land regions. In terms of the area-averaged variance, it is found that the fidelity of a model to represent NH summer versus winter ISV appears to be strongly linked. In addition, most models' ISO patterns do exhibit some form of northeastward propagation. However, the model ISO patterns are typically less coherent, lack sufficient eastward propagation, and have smaller zonal and meridional spatial scales than the observed patterns, and are often limited to one side or the other of the maritime continent. The most pervasive and problematic feature of the models' depiction of ISV and/or their ISO patterns is the overall lack of variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean. In some cases, this characteristic appears to result from some models forming double convergence zones about the equator rather than one region of strong convergence on the equator. This shortcoming results in a poor representation of the local rainfall pattern and also significantly influences the models' representations of the global-scale teleconnection patterns associated with the ISO. Finally, analysis of the model ensemble shows a positive relationship between the strength of a model's ISV of rainfall and its intra-ensemble variability of seasonal monsoon rainfall. The implications of this latter relation are discussed in the context of seasonal monsoon predictability.  相似文献   

Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?     

R. Krishnan  T. P. Sabin  D. C. Ayantika  A. Kitoh  M. Sugi  H. Murakami  A. G. Turner  J. M. Slingo  K. Rajendran 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):187-211

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.  相似文献   

ENSIP: the El Niño simulation intercomparison project     

M. Latif  K. Sperber  J. Arblaster  P. Braconnot  D. Chen  A. Colman  U. Cubasch  C. Cooper  P. Delecluse  D. Dewitt  L. Fairhead  G. Flato  T. Hogan  M. Ji  M. Kimoto  A. Kitoh  T. Knutson  H. Le Treut  T. Li  S. Manabe  O. Marti  C. Mechoso  G. Meehl  S. Power  E. Roeckner  J. Sirven  L. Terray  A. Vintzileos  R. Voß  B. Wang  W. Washington  I. Yoshikawa  J. Yu  S. Zebiak 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):255-276

An ensemble of twenty four coupled ocean-atmosphere models has been compared with respect to their performance in the tropical Pacific. The coupled models span a large portion of the parameter space and differ in many respects. The intercomparison includes TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere)-type models consisting of high-resolution tropical ocean models and coarse-resolution global atmosphere models, coarse-resolution global coupled models, and a few global coupled models with high resolution in the equatorial region in their ocean components. The performance of the annual mean state, the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability are investigated. The primary quantity analysed is sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the evolution of interannual heat content variations in the tropical Pacific and the relationship between the interannual SST variations in the equatorial Pacific to fluctuations in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon are investigated. The results can be summarised as follows: almost all models (even those employing flux corrections) still have problems in simulating the SST climatology, although some improvements are found relative to earlier intercomparison studies. Only a few of the coupled models simulate the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in terms of gross equatorial SST anomalies realistically. In particular, many models overestimate the variability in the western equatorial Pacific and underestimate the SST variability in the east. The evolution of interannual heat content variations is similar to that observed in almost all models. Finally, the majority of the models show a strong connection between ENSO and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon.  相似文献   

Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

V. Masson-Delmotte  M. Kageyama  P. Braconnot  S. Charbit  G. Krinner  C. Ritz  E. Guilyardi  J. Jouzel  A. Abe-Ouchi  M. Crucifix  R. M. Gladstone  C. D. Hewitt  A. Kitoh  A. N. LeGrande  O. Marti  U. Merkel  T. Motoi  R. Ohgaito  B. Otto-Bliesner  W. R. Peltier  I. Ross  P. J. Valdes  G. Vettoretti  S. L. Weber  F. Wolk  Y. YU 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(5):513-529

Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced by changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7°C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Antarctic temperature change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar temperatures are strongly related to changes in simulated global temperatures for both future and LGM climates, confirming that ice-core-based reconstructions provide quantitative insights on global climate changes. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979–1988     

F. D’Andrea  S. Tibaldi  M. Blackburn  G. Boer  M. Déqué  M. R. Dix  B. Dugas  L. Ferranti  T. Iwasaki  A. Kitoh  V. Pope  D. Randall  E. Roeckner  D. Strauss  W. Stern  H. Van den Dool  D. Williamson 《Climate Dynamics》1998,14(6):385-407

 As a part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), the behaviour of 15 general circulation models has been analysed in order to diagnose and compare the ability of the different models in simulating Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric blocking. In accordance with the established AMIP procedure, the 10-year model integrations were performed using prescribed, time-evolving monthly mean observed SSTs spanning the period January 1979–December 1988. Atmospheric observational data (ECMWF analyses) over the same period have been also used to verify the models results. The models involved in this comparison represent a wide spectrum of model complexity, with different horizontal and vertical resolution, numerical techniques and physical parametrizations, and exhibit large differences in blocking behaviour. Nevertheless, a few common features can be found, such as the general tendency to underestimate both blocking frequency and the average duration of blocks. The problem of the possible relationship between model blocking and model systematic errors has also been assessed, although without resorting to ad-hoc numerical experimentation it is impossible to relate with certainty particular model deficiencies in representing blocking to precise parts of the model formulation. Received: 16 July 1997/Accepted: 20 October 1997  相似文献