A stochastic differential equation model for assessing drought and flood risks   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Koichi Unami  Felix Kofi Abagale  Macarius Yangyuoru  Abul Hasan M. Badiul Alam  Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(5):725-733

Droughts and floods are two opposite but related hydrological events. They both lie at the extremes of rainfall intensity when the period of that intensity is measured over long intervals. This paper presents a new concept based on stochastic calculus to assess the risk of both droughts and floods. An extended definition of rainfall intensity is applied to point rainfall to simultaneously deal with high intensity storms and dry spells. The mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, which is a stochastic differential equation model, simulates the behavior of point rainfall evolving not over time, but instead with cumulative rainfall depth. Coefficients of the polynomial functions that approximate the model parameters are identified from observed raingauge data using the least squares method. The probability that neither drought nor flood occurs until the cumulative rainfall depth reaches a given value requires solving a Dirichlet problem for the backward Kolmogorov equation associated with the stochastic differential equation. A numerical model is developed to compute that probability, using the finite element method with an effective upwind discretization scheme. Applicability of the model is demonstrated at three raingauge sites located in Ghana, where rainfed subsistence farming is the dominant practice in a variety of tropical climates.  相似文献   

Geochemical characteristics of Carboniferous greenstones in the Inner Zone of Southwest Japan   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Sakae Sano  Yasutaka Hayasaka and  Koichi Tazaki 《Island Arc》2000,9(1):81-96

Abstract Greenstones, representing remnants of paleo-oceanic crust, occur in Permian and Jurassic accretionary complexes of the Inner Zone in the Southwestern Japan arc. The formation age of most of the greenstones is early Carboniferous, based on fossil ages for overlying limestones and Sm-Nd isotope ages of the greenstones themselves. The geochemistry of such greenstones is similar to those of present-day oceanic islands. Greenstones of the Permian accretionary complex (Akiyoshi belt) are alkalic and tholeiitic in composition. Some alkali basalts show peculiar features from an EM-1 mantle source, such as the Gough Island and Tristan da Chunha basalts in the South Atlantic. Greenstones of the Jurassic accretionary complex (Tamba belt) are also alkali and tholeiitic basalts with both basalt types in the northern part of the Tamba belt coming from strongly depleted characters similar to a mid-ocean ridge basalt source mantle. The variable geochemistry of the oceanic basalts is explained by hypothesis on existence of a Carboniferous mantle plume below the spreading ridge which divides the Farallon and Izanagi plates. The Akiyoshi belt seamounts and/or oceanic islands of the Farallon plate and Tamba belt seamounts and/or oceanic islands of the Izanagi plate formed simultaneously by the upwelling of the thermal plume. Some part of the Akiyoshi belt basalts originated locally from an EM-1 mantle source, while basalts from the northern parts of the Tamba belt have a normal-type mid-ocean ridge basalt (N-MORB) source component. Existence of an N-MORB signature is consistent with the presence of a spreading center in a Carboniferous 'Pacific Ocean' that caused separation of the Farallon and Izanagi plates. Disparity in accretion ages of the basaltic rocks in the Permian and Jurassic may have been caused by differences in the relative motion of the two plates.  相似文献   

Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake clusters   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yosihiko Ogata  Tokuji Utsu  Koichi Katsura 《Geophysical Journal International》1995,121(1):233-254

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Magnetotelluric survey for exploration of a volcanic-rock reservoir in the Yurihara oil and gas field,Japan*     

Yuji Mitsuhata  Koichi Matsuo  Masato Minegishi 《Geophysical Prospecting》1999,47(2):195-218

The Yurihara oil and gas field is located on the southern edge of Akita Prefecture, northeastern Japan. In this area, drilling, surface geological surveys and many seismic surveys have been used to investigate the geological structure. Wells drilled into the Nishikurosawa Basalt Group (NBG) of Miocene age found oil and gas reservoirs at depths of 1.5–2 km. Oil and gas are now being produced commercially and further exploration is required in the surrounding areas. However, since the neighbouring areas are covered with young volcanic products from the Chokai volcano, and have a rough topography, the subsurface distribution of the NBG must be investigated using other methods in addition to seismic reflection. According to the well data, the resistivity of the NBG is comparatively higher than that of the overlying sedimentary formations, and therefore the magnetotelluric (MT) method is expected to be useful for the estimation of the distribution of the NBG. An MT survey was conducted along three survey lines in this area. Each line trended east–west, perpendicular to the regional geological strike, and was composed of about 25 measurement sites. Induction vectors evaluated from the magnetic field show that this area has a two-dimensional structure. The evaluated resistivity sections are in agreement with the log data. In conclusion, we were able to detect resistive layers (the NBG) below conductive layers. The results indicate that the NBG becomes gradually less resistive from north to south. In the centre of the northern line, an uplifted resistive area is interpreted as corresponding to the reservoir. By comparison with a seismic section, we prove the effectiveness of the integration of seismic and MT surveys for the investigation of the morphology and internal structure of the NBG. On other survey lines, the resistive uplifted zones are interpreted as possible prospective areas.  相似文献   

Hydrocarbon-Degrading Bacteria and Paraffin from Polluted Seashores 9 Years after the Nakhodka Oil Spill in the Sea of Japan     

Kazue TAZAKI Hiroaki WATANABE Siti Khodijah CHAERUN Koichi SHIRAKI Ryuji ASADA 《《地质学报》英文版》2006,80(3):432-440

Pollution of petroleum hydrocarbons, in particular oil spills, has attracted much attention in the past and recent decades. Oil spills influence natural microbial community, and physical and chemical properties of the affected sites. The biodegradation of hydrocarbons by microorganisms is one of the primary ways by which oil spill is eliminated from contaminated sites. One such spill was that of the Russian tanker the Nakhodka that spilled heavy oil into the Sea of Japan on January 2, 1997. The impact of the Nakhodka oil spill resulted in a viscous sticky fluid fouling the shores and affected natural ecosystems. This paper describes the weathering of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria （genus Pseudomonas） and crystallized organic compounds from the Nakhodka oil spill-polluted seashores after nine years. The Nakhodka oil has hardened and formed crust of crystalline paraffin wax as shown by XRD analysis （0.422, 0.377, and 0.250 nm d-spacing） in association with graphite and calcite after 9 years of bioremediation. Anaerobic reverse side of the oil crust contained numerous coccus typed bacteria associated with halite. The finding of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria and paraffin wax in the oil crust may have a significant effect on the weathering processes of the Nakhodka oil spill during the 9- year bioremediation.  相似文献   

Effectivity of dissolved SF6 tracer for clarification of rainfall–runoff processes in a forested headwater catchment     

Koichi Sakakibara  Maki Tsujimura  Sho Iwagami  Yutaro Sato  Kosuke Nagano  Yuichi Onda 《水文研究》2019,33(6):892-904

Understanding rainfall‐runoff processes is crucial for prevention and prediction of water‐related natural disasters. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) is a potential tracer, but few researches have applied it for rainfall‐runoff process studies. We observed multiple tracers including SF₆ in spring water at 1‐ to 2‐hr intervals during rainstorm events to investigate the effectivity of SF₆ tracer in rainfall–runoff studies through the clarification of rainfall–runoff process. The target spring is a perennial spring in a forested headwater catchment with an area of 0.045 km² in Fukushima, Japan. The relationship between the SF₆ concentration in spring water and the spring discharge volume was negative trend; the SF₆ concentration in spring water becomes low as the spring discharge volume increases especially during rainstorms. The hydrograph separation using SF₆ and chloride ion tracers was applied for determining the contribution of principal sources on rainfall–runoff water. It suggested more than 60% contribution of bedrock groundwater at the rainfall peak and high percentage contribution continued even in the hydrograph recession phase. Based on observed low SF₆ concentration in groundwater after heavy rainfall, the replacement of groundwater near the spring with bedrock groundwater is indicated as a mechanism for water discharge with low SF₆ concentration during rainfall events. Consequently, rainstorm events play an important role as triggers in discharging water stored in the deeper subsurface area. In addition, SF₆ tracer is concluded as one of the strongest tracers for examining rainfall–runoff process studies. And, therefore, this study provided new insights into the dynamics of groundwater and its responses to rainfall in terms of SF₆ concentration variance in water in headwater regions.  相似文献   

Temporal variability in physicochemical properties,phytoplankton standing crop and primary production for 7 years (2002–2008) in the neritic area of Sagami Bay,Japan     

Koichi Ara  Koh Yamaki  Keisuke Wada  Satoshi Fukuyama  Takeshi Okutsu  Sadao Nagasaka  Akihiro Shiomoto  Juro Hiromi 《Journal of Oceanography》2011,67(1):87-111

Seasonal and interannual variations in physicochemical properties (i.e., temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and dissolved inorganic nutrients), chlorophyll a (Chl-a), particulate carbon and nitrogen (PC and PN, respectively), and primary production were investigated in the neritic area of Sagami Bay, Kanagawa, Japan, from January 2002 to December 2008. These abiotic/biotic variables, except for NH₄ ⁺–N, repeated similar seasonal variations for all 7 years. On the basis of the analysis of data obtained on 167 sampling dates, depth-integrated primary production in this water can be easily estimated from Chl-a at the surface using the regression equations obtained in the present study. Intermittently high values of dissolved inorganic nutrients, Chl-a, PC, PN and primary productivity at the surface during the summer stratified period were induced by high freshwater discharge from the rivers after rainfalls and by the expansion of nutrient-rich Tokyo Bay Water. Temperature, salinity and dissolved inorganic nutrients showed drastic variations within a scale of a few days and/or weeks, and these variations were related to sea levels that represent the intrusion of the Kuroshio Water, Intermediate Oyashio Water or deep water from the continental slope. However, there was no consistent trend in the variations in Chl-a, PC, PN and primary production due to the complex effects of these waters.  相似文献   

Favorable conditions for cold-water intrusion from the Kuroshio intermediate layer into Osaka Bay     

Koichi Sugimatsu  Atsuhiko Isobe 《Journal of Oceanography》2011,67(2):149-158

From 1980 to 1995, in August, the bottom layer of Osaka Bay was occupied by cold, nutrient-rich water compared with that observed during both previous and subsequent decades. To investigate the mechanisms for the intrusion of bottom-layer cold water into Osaka Bay, the intrusion into Osaka Bay via the Kii Channel is simulated using a finite-volume coastal ocean model with unstructured triangular cell grids. The initial conditions, boundary conditions, and surface temperature given to the model are obtained from daily reanalysis data provided by the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment. The model shows that cold water uplifted on the eastern side of the Kii Peninsula is propagated westward at 1.0 m/s as a coastal boundary current; it reaches the Kii Channel mouth when the Kuroshio axis is located around 74 km south of Cape Shionomisaki. However, the modeled cold water mass at the Kii Channel mouth does not intrude further to the north of the Kii Channel; therefore, another mechanism is required to explain the cold-water intrusion into the bottom layer of Osaka Bay. A plausible explanation is the estuarine circulation established by the freshwater supply at the bay head. When the river runoff is included in the model without forced vertical mixing, the temperature in Osaka Bay decreases 6.6 days later than the temperature decreases at the Kii Channel mouth. Furthermore, the shoreward current speed in the bottom layer of the modeled estuarine circulation is 15 cm/s, which provides the mechanism required for the cold water mass to pass the Kii Channel.  相似文献   

Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

Yosihiko Ogata  Koichi Katsura 《Geophysical Journal International》1993,113(3):727-738

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Joint inversion of refraction and gravity data for the three-dimensional topography of a sediment–basement interface     

Afnimar  Kazuki Koketsu  Koichi Nakagawa 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,151(1):243-254

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