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131.
After a pelagic larval phase, infaunal bivalves undergo metamorphosis and transition to the underlying sediments to begin the benthic stage of their life history, where they explore and then either accept or reject sediments. Although the settlement cues used by juvenile infaunal bivalves are poorly understood, here we provide evidence that carbonate saturation state is a significant chemical cue in both direct observation laboratory studies and field manipulations. In the laboratory, plantigrade-stage Mercenaria mercenaria (200 μm shell height) showed a significant positive relationship between percent burrowed and Ωaragonite, with an increasing probability of settlement with increasing saturation state. In the field, we increased bivalve recruitment by a factor of three in a 30-day field study by raising the pH (~0.3) and saturation state of surface sediments by buffering sediments with crushed shell (CaCO3). The susceptibility of infaunal bivalves to dissolution mortality and the tight coupling of other sedimentary biogeochemical processes with carbonate dynamics suggest that mineral thermodynamics may be an overarching cue new settlers are responding to.  相似文献   
132.
Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.  相似文献   
133.
A case of offshore convective initiation by interacting land breezes near Darwin, Australia is investigated using convection-permitting model simulations, radar-derived precipitation observations, thermodynamic profiles from radiosonde soundings and surface measurements. These analyses elucidate the convergence of two land breezes in the Van Diemen Gulf, one originating from the Tiwi Islands and the other from mainland Australia; the convergence is sufficient to initiate a line of convection that forms parallel to the mainland coast in the early morning. While differing in small-scale features, the modeled system shows reasonably good agreement with the observed precipitation accumulations. However, using simulations with different initialization times and examining a second case, it is shown that the representation of the land-breeze system and subsequent convective initiation is very sensitive to the upstream wind and thermodynamic conditions, making correct simulation of these processes challenging.  相似文献   
134.
Understanding Arctic glacier sensitivity is key to predicting future response to air temperature rise. Previous studies have used proglacial lake sediment records to reconstruct Holocene glacier advance–retreat patterns in South and West Greenland, but high‐resolution glacier records from High Arctic Greenland are scarce, despite the sensitivity of this region to future climate change. Detailed geochemical analysis of proglacial lake sediments close to Zackenberg, northeast Greenland, provides the first high‐resolution record of Late Holocene High Arctic glacier behaviour. Three phases of glacier advance have occurred in the last 2000 years. The first two phases (c. 1320–800 cal. a BP) occurred prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA), and correspond to the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The third phase (c. 700 cal. a BP), representing a smaller scale glacier oscillation, is associated with the onset of the LIA. Our results are consistent with recent evidence of pre‐LIA glacier advance in other parts of the Arctic, including South and West Greenland, Svalbard, and Canada. The sub‐millennial glacier fluctuations identified in the Madsen Lake succession are not preserved in the moraine record. Importantly, coupled XRF and XRD analysis has effectively identified a phase of ice advance that is not visible by sedimentology alone. This highlights the value of high‐resolution geochemical analysis of lake sediments to establish rapid glacier advance–retreat patterns in regions where chronological and morphostratigraphical control is limited.  相似文献   
135.
A rising exposure to flood risk is a predicted consequence of increased development in vulnerable areas and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change. In the face of this challenge, a continued reliance on engineered at‐a‐point flood defences is seen as both unrealistic and undesirable. The contribution of ‘soft engineering’ solutions (e.g. riparian forests, wood in rivers) to integrated, catchment scale flood risk management has been demonstrated at small scales but not larger ones. In this study we use reduced complexity hydrological modelling to analyse the effects of land use and channel changes resulting from river restoration upon flood flows at the catchment scale. Results show short sections of river‐floodplain restoration using engineered logjams, typical of many current restoration schemes, have highly variable impacts on catchment‐scale flood peak magnitude and so need to be used with caution as a flood management solution. Forested floodplains have a more general impact upon flood hydrology, with areas in the middle and upper catchment tending to show reductions in peak magnitude at the catchment outflow. The most promising restoration scenarios for flood risk management are for riparian forest restoration at the sub‐catchment scale, representing 20–40% of the total catchment area, where reductions in peak magnitude of up to 19% are observed through de‐synchronization of the timings of sub‐catchment flood waves. Sub‐catchment floodplain forest restoration over 10–15% of total catchment area can lead to reductions in peak magnitude of 6% at 25 years post‐restoration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
136.
This paper presents the predicted flow dynamics from the application of a Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes model to a series of bifurcation geometries with morphologies measured during previous flume experiments. The topography of the bifurcations consists of either plane or bedform‐dominated beds which may or may not possess discordance between the two bifurcation distributaries. Numerical predictions are compared with experimental results to assess the ability of the numerical model to reproduce the division of flow into the bifurcation distributaries. The hydrodynamic model predicts: (1) diverting fluxes in the upstream channel which direct water into the distributaries; (2) super‐elevation of the free surface induced at the bifurcation edge by pressure differences; and (3) counter‐rotating secondary circulation cells which develop upstream of the apex of the bifurcation and move into the downstream channels, with water converging at the surface and diverging at the bed. When bedforms are not present, weak transversal fluxes characterize the upstream channel for almost its entire length, associated with clearly distinguishable secondary circulation cells, although these may be under‐estimated by the turbulence model used in the solution. In the bedform dominated case, the same hydrodynamic conditions were not observed, with the bifurcation influence restricted and depth scale secondary circulation cells not forming. The results also demonstrate the dominant effect bed discordance has upon flow division between the two distributaries. Finally, results indicate that in bedform dominated rivers. Consequently, we suggest that sand‐bed river bifurcations are more likely to have an influence that extends much further upstream and have a greater impact upon water distribution. This may contribute to observed morphological differences between sand‐bedded and gravel‐bedded braided river networks. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
137.
In situ calibration is a proposed strategy for continuous as well as initial calibration of an impact disdrometer. In previous work, a collocated tipping bucket had been utilized to provide a rainfall rate based ~11/3 moment reference to an impact disdrometer’s signal processing system for implementation of adaptive calibration. Using rainfall rate only, transformation of impulse amplitude to a drop volume based on a simple power law was used to define an error surface in the model’s parameter space. By incorporating optical extinction second moment measurements with rainfall rate data, an improved in situ disdrometer calibration algorithm results due to utilization of multiple (two or more) independent moments of the drop size distribution in the error function definition. The resulting improvement in calibration performance can be quantified by detailed examination of the parameter space error surface using simulation as well as real data.  相似文献   
138.
The objective of this research was to develop and parameterise a physically justified yet low‐parameter model to quantify observed changes in surface runoff ratios with hillslope length. The approach starts with the assumption that a unit of rainfall‐excess runoff generated at a point is a fraction β of precipitation P (m) which travels some variable distance down a slope before reinfiltrating, depending on the local rainfall, climate, soils, etc. If this random distance travelled Y is represented by a distribution, then a survival function will describe the probability of this unit of runoff travelling further than some distance x (m). The total amount of per unit width runoff Q (m2) flowing across the lower boundary of a slope of length λ (m) may be considered the sum of all the proportions of the units of rainfall excess runoff integrated from the lower boundary x = 0 to the upper boundary x = λ of the slope. Using these assumptions we derive a model Q(λ) = βPμλ/(μ + λ), > 0, 0 ≤ β ≤ 1, λ ≥ 0) that describes the change in surface runoff with slope length, where μ (m) is the mean of the random variable Y. Dividing both sides of this equation by yields a simple two‐parameter equation for the dimensionless hillslope runoff ratio Qh(λ) = βμ/(μ + λ). The model was parameterised with new rainfall and runoff data collected from three replicates of bounded 2 m wide plots of four different lengths (0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 m) for 2 years from a forested SE Australian site, and with 32 slope length–runoff data sets from 12 other published studies undertaken between 1934 and 2010. Using the parameterised model resulted in a Nash and Sutcliffe statistic between observed and predicted runoff ratio (for all data sets combined) of 0.93, compared with –2.1 when the runoff ratio was fixed at the value measured from the shortest plot. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
139.
140.
There exist isolated elliptical galaxies, whose dynamics can be modeled without resorting to dark matter or MOND, for example, NGC 7507. Such objects lack understanding within the current framework of galaxy formation. The isolated elliptical NGC 5812 is another object to investigate a possible role of isolation. We use globular clusters (GCs) and the galaxy light itself as dynamical tracers to constrain its mass profile. We employ Gemini/GMOS mask spectroscopy, apply the GMOS reduction procedures provided within IRAF, measure GC velocities by cross correlation methods and extract the line-of-sight kinematics of galaxy spectra using the tool pPXF. We identify 28 GCs with an outermost galactocentric distance of 20 kpc, for which velocities could be obtained. Furthermore, 16 spectra of the integrated galaxy light out to 6 kpc have been used to model the central kinematics. These spectra provide evidence for a disturbed velocity field, which is plausible given the disturbed morphology of the galaxy. We construct spherical Jeans models for the galaxy light and apply tracer mass estimators for the globular clusters. With the assumptions inherent to the mass estimators, MOND is compatible with the mass out to 20 kpc. However, a dark matter free galaxy is not excluded, given the uncertainties related to a possible nonsphericity and a possible nonequilibrium state. We find one globular cluster with an estimated mass of 1 . 6 × 1 0 7 M $$ 1.6\times 1{0}^7{M}_{\odot } $$ , the first Ultra Compact Dwarf in an isolated elliptical. We put NGC 5812 into the general context of dark matter or alternative ideas in elliptical galaxies. The case for a MONDian phenomenology also among early-type galaxies has become so strong that deviating cases appear astrophysically more interesting than agreements. The baryonic Tully Fisher relation (BTFR) as predicted by MOND is observed in some samples of early-type galaxies, in others not. However, in cases of galaxies that deviate from the MONDian prediction, data quality and data completeness are often problematic.  相似文献   
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