雷电临近预警产品评估方法及其软件   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

马颖  孟青  吕伟涛  姚雯  张文娟 《气象》2009,35(11):101-106

为了适应雷电业务发展的需求,对已经投入业务运行试验的雷电临近预警系统的预警效果做出客观评估,中国气象科学研究院雷电物理和防护工程实验室开展了雷电临近预警产品评估方法的研究,并开发了配套的应用软件.评估方法通过雷电预警结果和实际监测结果的对比,得到命中率POD、虚警率FAR和TS评分三项指标,实现对雷电预警产品的评估.评估软件的实际运行表明:该方法不仅能够检验CAMS_LNWS预报雷电活动的能力,还能对预警方法的改进起到一定的指导作用,能够满足雷电业务产品评估的需要.  相似文献   

Paleomagnetic and rock magnetic results from lower crustal rocks of IODP Site U1309: Implication for thermal and accretion history of the Atlantis Massif     

Xixi Zhao  Masako Tominaga   《Tectonophysics》2009,474(3-4):435-448

Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expeditions 304/305 recovered a total of 1.4 km sequence of lower crustal gabbroic and minor ultramafic rocks from the Atlantis Massif oceanic core complex on the western flank of the Mid Atlantic Ridge (MAR) at 30°N. We conducted an integrated paleomagnetic and rock magnetic study on this sequence to help address the interplay between magmatism and detachment faulting. Detailed thermal and alternating-field demagnetization results demonstrate that stable components of magnetization of mainly reversed polarity with unblocking temperatures below the Curie temperature of magnetite are retained in gabbroic rocks at IODP Site U1309. Several samples also contain multicomponent remanences of both normal and reversed polarities that were acquired over sharply defined blocking temperature intervals, providing evidence for localized reheating of some intervals during both normal and reversed polarity periods. Results from a series of rock magnetic measurements corroborate the demagnetization behavior and show that titanomagnetites are the main magnetic carrier rocks recovered at Site U1309D. The overall magnetic inclination of Hole U1309D is -35°, implying significant (up to ~ 50° counterclockwise, viewed to the north) rotation of the footwall around a horizontal axis parallel to the rift axis (010°) may have occurred. The tectonic rotations inferred by the paleomagnetic data suggest that the original fault orientation dipped relative steeply toward the spreading axis and subsequently rotated to a shallower angle. Coupled with the newly published U–Pb zircon ages for Hole U1309D rocks [Grimes, C.B., John, B.E., Wooden, J.L., 2008. Protracted construction of gabbroic crust at a slow-spreading ridge: Constraints from ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U zircon ages from Atlantis Massif and IODP Hole 1309D, (30°N, MAR). Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 9, Q08012. doi:1029/2008GC002063], the new paleomagnetic data provide temporal and thermal constraints on the accretion history of the Atlantis Massif.  相似文献   

Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives     

Liu  Zhenhua  Ding  Zhihua  Lv  Tao  Wu  Jy S.  Qiang  Wei 《Natural Hazards》2019,95(1-2):207-225

Natural Hazards - Traditionally, fundamental factors of supply and demand were important in understanding oil price dynamics before the financial crisis. These factors, however, are no longer...  相似文献   

中国沿海海洋站GNSS坐标时间序列噪声模型的建立与分析     

金波文  王慧  刘玉龙  邓丽静  吕江华 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(5):476-481

选取中国沿海海洋站中与验潮室并址的22个GNSS基准站近9 a的观测资料,利用最大似然估计法分析各站时间序列的噪声特性,建立最优噪声模型;然后顾及有色噪声,利用最优噪声模型估计测站速度,并与纯白噪声模型和GLOBK获取的速度及误差进行对比分析。结果表明：1）沿海海洋站的GNSS时间序列均含有有色噪声,各分量的噪声特性不完全一致,E方向和U分量均以白噪声+闪烁噪声为主,N分量以白噪声+闪烁噪声和白噪声+一阶马尔科夫噪声+随机漫步噪声为主。2）全国沿海3个海区N、E分量的白噪声和闪烁噪声基本呈现越往南噪声越大的规律,南海海区U分量的白噪声和闪烁噪声最大。3）顾及有色噪声的速度中误差是仅考虑白噪声和GLOBK估计的速度中误差估计值的5～10倍,这种差异比内陆观测站的要大。4）在对海洋站GNSS时间序列进行速度分析时,为获取正确的速度值,应该先准确判断噪声的类型,再顾及有色噪声的影响估计测站速度。  相似文献   

Laboratory Investigation into the Evaporation of Natural-Gas Condensate Oils: Hints for the Sanchi Oil Spill     

Yong Zhang  Tao Yang  Junbo Zhang  Baoyi Lv  Xiangsheng Cheng  Yin Fang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2020,19(3):633-642

The Sanchi oil tanker collision in the East China Sea on January 6th, 2018 has caused worldwide attention due to its uniqueness. A considerable amount of h  相似文献   

基于GPS的MODIS近红外可降水量季节性模型建立     

段茜茜  曲建光  高伟  王帅民 《测绘工程》2017,26(12)

在考虑可降水量季节性变化的基础上,提出利用GPS数据建立MODIS近红外可降水量季节性模型。首先对比分析2014年北京房山(BJFS)站的GPS可降水量和相应时间的MODIS近红外可降水量数据,发现两者之间的变化趋势基本一致,存在显著线性相关性;然后以GPS可降水量为标准值,利用回归分析建立GPS和MODIS可降水量之间的季节和全年校正模型。经检验,GPS可降水量与四个季节模型校正的MODIS近红外可降水量的均方根误差均小于3mm,最大误差不超过6mm,季节校正模型的精度都要高于全年校正模型。  相似文献   

浙江省城市化与生态环境协调度及其胁迫关系探讨     

吕越  陈忠清 《地域研究与开发》2017,36(3)

运用交互胁迫、耦合协调模型,结合主观均方差分析法和客观结构熵值法确定指标权重,通过建立指标体系研究2000-2014年浙江省生态环境和城市化的交互胁迫关系和协调类型.结果表明:浙江省生态环境和城市化之间存在交互胁迫关系,演变状态符合双指数函数;前者对后者有显著的约束作用,后者对前者有显著的胁迫作用.对城市化综合水平影响程度大小依次为经济、社会与人口城市化,对生态环境综合水平影响程度大小依次为生态环境压力、状态与响应.2000-2014年浙江省综合协调耦合类型分为磨合协调阶段(2000-2003年)、基本协调阶段(2003-2005年)、拮抗协调阶段(2005-2010年)和良好协调阶段(2010-2014)4个阶段.  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zunfu Lv  Yan Zhu  Xiaojun Liu  Hongbao Ye  Yongchao Tian  Feifei Li 《Climatic change》2018,147(3-4):523-537

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO₂ fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.  相似文献   

金沙江下游梯级水库运行后三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性     

高宇  任实  王海  吕超楠  赵汗青 《湖泊科学》2023,35(2):662-672

泥沙淤积问题直接影响着三峡水库的使用寿命及综合效益的发挥,研究其入库水沙特性对于解决水库泥沙淤积问题具有重要意义。根据水文站实测数据,分析了三峡水库入库水沙输移特性及来源组成变化,重点研究了金沙江下游梯级水库运行后的三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性。结果表明:2003—2021年,三峡水库入库泥沙集中于汛期的高洪水期,2013年以后该现象更为显著,泥沙来源也由金沙江为主转变为嘉陵江为主。寸滩站洪峰流量高于50000 m³/s的高洪水期三峡入库沙量显著大于30000～50000 m³/s区间的高洪水期,三峡水库泥沙调度关键在于上游发生编号洪水期间。三峡水库上游沱江或嘉陵江等支流发生流域性大洪水时,易引起高洪水期入库水沙出现“小水大沙”的特点。金沙江下游梯级水库运行后,三峡水库高洪水期入库泥沙大幅减少,中小洪水调度期间泥沙淤积量也大幅减小。研究结果可为三峡水库的泥沙精细化调度和长期高效使用提供基础数据支撑。  相似文献   

甘孜-玉树断裂带晚第四纪走滑速率与滑动分解作用     

吕丽星  李传友  魏占玉  董金元  谭锡斌  石峰  苏鹏 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(3):456-468

滑动速率是研究断裂运动学特征、地震活动性和区域应变分配的重要参数和依据。前人关于甘孜-玉树断裂带滑动速率的研究结果存在较大差异,因此,其晚第四纪滑动速率有待进一步调查研究。本文基于卫星影像解译和野外实地考察,对甘孜-玉树断裂带西段（玉树断裂）上典型断错地貌点进行测量分析,得到玉树断裂晚第四纪走滑速率为6.6±0.1-7.4±1.2mm/a。通过与前人对甘孜-玉树断裂带东段（甘孜断裂）滑动速率的研究结果进行对比,发现甘孜-玉树断裂带东、西段滑动速率不一致,其原因是甘孜断裂的左旋滑移在向西传递的过程中,一部分应变被分配到了巴塘盆地南缘断裂上。巴塘盆地南缘断裂的存在很好地解释了玉树断裂的走滑速率比甘孜断裂偏低的原因。但是,从区域变形来看,巴塘盆地南缘断裂分配的滑动速率恰好说明了甘孜-玉树断裂带东、西段及鲜水河断裂带的水平构造变形是协调一致的。  相似文献