Reliability of reanalyses products in simulating precipitation and temperature characteristics over India     

Nikhil Ghodichore  R Vinnarasi  C T Dhanya  Somnath Baidya Roy 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(8):115

Various reanalyses have been utilized in numerous climate related researches around the globe, however, there exists considerable biasedness in these products, especially in precipitation and temperature data. The ability of these reanalysis products to simulate the precipitation and temperature patterns is observed to be satisfactory at global scale, while it differs significantly at regional scale, especially over regions of high spatio-temporal heterogeneity such as India. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the applicability and robustness of reanalyses in climate related research. The annual and seasonal variability in spatio-temporal patterns and trends of precipitation and temperature data, with respect to the IMD gridded data over 34 yrs, are evaluated for six global reanalyses namely, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP R1), NCEP-DOE AMIP-2 Reanalysis (NCEP R2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application Land only model (MERRA-Land) and JMA 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). The ability of the reanalyses was tested based on several factors such as statistical and categorical indices, spells and trends, for annual and seasonal daily values. Several regional and seasonal differences were observed, particularly over high rainfall regions such as Western Ghats and northeastern India. MERRA-Land is found to give the best results for precipitation over India, which is attributed to the updated forcing data using gauge-based precipitation observations. Similarly, ERA-Interim and JRA-55 exhibit better performance for temperature than other datasets. All reanalyses failed to correctly reproduce the trends in IMD data, for both precipitation and temperature. These observations will provide a better perception on the reliability and applicability of reanalyses for climate and hydrological studies over India.  相似文献   

GIS professional development for teachers: lessons learned from high-needs schools     

Jerry T. Mitchell  George Roy  Stephannie Fritch  Brandy Wood 《制图学和地理信息科学》2018,45(4):292-304

University faculty partners from the Departments of Geography and Instruction and Teacher Education at a large, public university collaborated with K-12 teachers and the leadership of a rural school district in order to investigate the crosscutting content of science, mathematics, and geography through the integration of web-based GIS technologies. The project explored the critical connections among technology, pedagogy, and content with a particular emphasis on developing technology-enhanced, inquiry-based lessons in which the teachers and their students used GIS technologies to analyze, visualize, and present data in real-world contexts. The findings highlight the importance of well-structured professional development that builds community, integrates diverse content and pedagogical expertise, provides feedback and coaching, and is of sufficient duration to effect change.  相似文献   

Correction to: Effect of time and space partitioning strategies of samples on regional landslide susceptibility modelling     

Khanna  Kirti  Martha  Tapas R.  Roy  Priyom  Kumar  K. Vinod 《Landslides》2021,18(6):2295-2296

Landslides - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01646-0.  相似文献   

Effect of time and space partitioning strategies of samples on regional landslide susceptibility modelling     

Khanna  Kirti  Martha  Tapas R.  Roy  Priyom  Kumar  K. Vinod 《Landslides》2021,18(6):2281-2294

Landslides - Assessment of the spatial probability of future landslide occurrences for disaster risk reduction is done through landslide susceptibility modelling. In this study, we investigated the...  相似文献   

Geospatial landslide inventory of India—an insight into occurrence and exposure on a national scale     

Martha  Tapas Ranjan  Roy  Priyom  Jain  Nirmala  Khanna  Kirti  Mrinalni  K.  Kumar  K. Vinod  Rao  P. V. N. 《Landslides》2021,18(6):2125-2141

Landslides - India ranks first in the world in terms of fatal landslides. Large vulnerable area (0.42 million km2), high population density and monsoon rainfall make India’s landslide...  相似文献   

An approach to the modeling of viscoelastic damage. Application to the long‐term creep of gypsum rock materials     

B. Nedjar  R. Le Roy 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(9):1066-1078

A three‐dimensional phenomenological model is developed to describe the long‐term creep of gypsum rock materials. The approach is based on the framework of continuum damage mechanics where coupling with viscoelasticity is adopted. Specifically, a local damage model based on the concept of yield surface is proposed and deeply investigated. Among the many possibilities, we choose in this work its coupling with a generalized Kelvin–Voigt rheological model to formulate the whole behavior. Long‐term as well as short‐term relaxation processes can be integrated in the model by means of as many as necessary viscoelastic processes. The numerical discretization is described for an easy integration within a finite element procedure. Finally, a set of numerical simulations is given to show the possibilities of the presented model. It shows good agreement with some experimental results found in the literature. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The evolution of conservation rules and norms in the Maine lobster industry     

James M. Acheson  Roy Gardner 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(9):524-534

Natural resources of all kinds have been overexploited by user groups who cannot or will not develop rules to constrain their own exploitive efforts. One notable exception is the Maine lobster industry, where an effective set of conservation laws has been developed due, in great part, to the strong support of the industry. In the early decades of the 20th century, however, the lobster industry was marked by widespread violations of the existing conservation laws and opposition to developing more. This article explores the way that the pirate ethic gave way to the conservation ethic in the 1930s. Our explorations in evolutionary game theory suggest that this change was produced by three factors: costs and benefits of defection from the conservation ethic; numbers of people accepting the conservation ethic quality rule; and events that shocked the system from one state to another. We argue that the shock to the system in the late 1920s and 1930s was caused by massive stock failure which changed the attitudes of many fishermen about the need for conservation. People began to report violations of the law, which made law enforcement more effective and quickly led to a cascade of fishermen abandoning the pirate ethic. In the late 1930s, increasing catches, in combination with a number of other social, technical, and economic factors continued the upward spiral.  相似文献   

Identifying effects of local and nonlocal factors of soil water storage using cyclical correlation analysis     

Asim Biswas  Bing Cheng Si 《水文研究》2012,26(24):3669-3677

There are various factors governing the spatial and temporal variability of soil water storage including soil properties, topography and vegetation. Some factors act locally, whereas others act nonlocally, which means that a factor measured at one location has effect on soil water storage at another location. The objective of this study was to examine the effects of local and nonlocal controls of soil water storage in a hummocky landscape using cyclical correlation analysis. Soil water storage, soil properties and terrain indices were measured along a 128‐point transect of 576 m long from the semiarid, hummocky, prairie pothole region of North America. There are large coefficients of determination (r²) between soil water storage and sand content (r² = 0.32–0.53), organic carbon content (r² = 0.22–0.56), depth to carbonate layer (r² = 0.13–0.63), wetness index (r² = 0.25–0.45) and other variables at the measurement scale at different times, indicating strong local effects from these variables. The correlation coefficients were also calculated by physically shifting the spatial series of soil water storage with respect to that of controlling factors. The shifting improves the correlation between the spatial series, and the length of shifting indicated the difference in the response of soil water to its controlling factors. For example, the value of r² increased more than eightfold (r² = 0.47–0.64) after shifting the spatial series of soil water storage by 54 m, almost equal to the average length of existing slope, compared with the very weak correlation (r² = 0.02–0.08) at the measurement scale. This indicated the nonlocal effect from the relative elevation. The identification of nonlocal effects from factors improves the prediction of soil water storage. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Multivariate analysis of flood characteristics in a climate change context of the watershed of the Baskatong reservoir,Province of Québec,Canada     

M.‐A. Ben Aissia  F. Chebana  T. B. M. J. Ouarda  L. Roy  G. Desrochers  I. Chartier  É. Robichaud 《水文研究》2012,26(1):130-142

The analysis of the impact of climate change (CC) on flood peaks has been the subject of several studies. However, a flood is characterized not only by its peak, but also by other characteristics such as its volume and duration. Little effort has been directed towards the study of the impact of CC on these characteristics. The aim of the present study is to evaluate and compare flood characteristics in a CC context, in the watershed of the Baskatong reservoir (Province of Québec, Canada). Comparisons are based on observed flow data and simulated flow series obtained from hydrological models using meteorological data from a regional climate model for a reference period (1971–2000) and a future period (2041–2070). To this end, two hydrological models HSAMI and HYDROTEL are considered. Correlations, stationarity, change‐points, and the multivariate behaviour of flood series were studied. The results show that, at various levels, all flood characteristics could be affected by CC. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A MEG study of the olivine and spinel forms of Mg2SiO4     

Mark D. Jackson  Roy G. Gordon 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1988,15(6):514-520

In this paper we present a theoretical investigation of the structures and relative stability of the olivine and spinel phases of Mg₂SiO₄. We use both a purely ionic model, based on the Modified Electron Gas (MEG) model of intermolecular forces, and a bond polarization model, developed for low pressure silica phases, to investigate the role of covalency in these compounds. The standard MEG ionic model gives adequate structural results for the two phases but incorrectly predicts the spinel phase to be more stable at zero pressure. This is mainly because the ionic modeling of Mg₂SiO₄ only accounts for 95 percent of the lattice energy. The remainder can be attributed to covalency and many-body effects. An extension of the MEG ionic model using “many-body” pair potentials corrects the phase stability error, but predicts structures which are in poorer agreement with experiment than the standard ionic approach. In addition, calculations using these many-body pair potentials can only account for 10 percent of the missing lattice energy. This model predicts an olivine-spinel phase transition of 8 GPa, below the experimental value of 20 GPa. Therefore, in order to understand more fully the stability of these structures we must consider polarization. A two-shell bond polarization model enhances the stability of both structures, with the olivine structure being stabilized more. This model predicts a phase transition at about 80 GPa, well above the observed value. Also, the olivine and spinel structures calculated with this approach are in poorer agreement with experiment than the ionic model. Therefore, based on our investigations, to properly model covalency in Mg₂SiO₄, a treatment more sophisticated than the two-shell model is needed.  相似文献