OSS (Outer Solar System): a fundamental and planetary physics mission to Neptune, Triton and the Kuiper Belt     

B. Christophe  L. J. Spilker  J. D. Anderson  N. André  S. W. Asmar  J. Aurnou  D. Banfield  A. Barucci  O. Bertolami  R. Bingham  P. Brown  B. Cecconi  J. -M. Courty  H. Dittus  L. N. Fletcher  B. Foulon  F. Francisco  P. J. S. Gil  K. H. Glassmeier  W. Grundy  C. Hansen  J. Helbert  R. Helled  H. Hussmann  B. Lamine  C. L?mmerzahl  L. Lamy  R. Lehoucq  B. Lenoir  A. Levy  G. Orton  J. Páramos  J. Poncy  F. Postberg  S. V. Progrebenko  K. R. Reh  S. Reynaud  C. Robert  E. Samain  J. Saur  K. M. Sayanagi  N. Schmitz  H. Selig  F. Sohl  T. R. Spilker  R. Srama  K. Stephan  P. Touboul  P. Wolf 《Experimental Astronomy》2012,34(2):203-242

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Farside explorer: unique science from a mission to the farside of the moon   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

David Mimoun  Mark A. Wieczorek  Leon Alkalai  W. Bruce Banerdt  David Baratoux  Jean-Louis Bougeret  Sylvain Bouley  Baptiste Cecconi  Heino Falcke  Joachim Flohrer  Raphael F. Garcia  Robert Grimm  Matthias Grott  Leonid Gurvits  Ralf Jaumann  Catherine L. Johnson  Martin Knapmeyer  Naoki Kobayashi  Alexander Konovalenko  David Lawrence  Mathieu Le Feuvre  Philippe Lognonné  Clive Neal  Jürgen Oberst  Nils Olsen  Huub R?ttgering  Tilman Spohn  Susanne Vennerstrom  Graham Woan  Philippe Zarka 《Experimental Astronomy》2012,33(2-3):529-585

Farside Explorer is a proposed Cosmic Vision medium-size mission to the farside of the Moon consisting of two landers and an instrumented relay satellite. The farside of the Moon is a unique scientific platform in that it is shielded from terrestrial radio-frequency interference, it recorded the primary differentiation and evolution of the Moon, it can be continuously monitored from the Earth–Moon L2 Lagrange point, and there is a complete lack of reflected solar illumination from the Earth. Farside Explorer will exploit these properties and make the first radio-astronomy measurements from the most radio-quiet region of near-Earth space, determine the internal structure and thermal evolution of the Moon, from crust to core, and quantify impact hazards in near-Earth space by the measurement of flashes generated by impact events. The Farside Explorer flight system includes two identical solar-powered landers and a science/telecommunications relay satellite to be placed in a halo orbit about the Earth–Moon L2 Lagrange point. One lander would explore the largest and oldest recognized impact basin in the Solar System— the South Pole–Aitken basin—and the other would investigate the primordial highlands crust. Radio astronomy, geophysical, and geochemical instruments would be deployed on the surface, and the relay satellite would continuously monitor the surface for impact events.  相似文献   

On some aspects of peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods under nonstationarity using climate covariates   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Artur Tiago Silva  Mauro Naghettini  Maria Manuela Portela 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(1):207-224

This paper discusses some aspects of flood frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold model with Poisson arrivals and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes under nonstationarity, using climate covariates. The discussion topics were motivated by a case study on the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the flood regime in the Itajaí river basin, in Southern Brazil. The Niño3.4 (DJF) index is used as a covariate in nonstationary estimates of the Poisson and GP distributions scale parameters. Prior to the positing of parametric dependence functions, a preliminary data-driven analysis was carried out using nonparametric regression models to estimate the dependence of the parameters on the covariate. Model fits were evaluated using asymptotic likelihood ratio tests, AIC, and Q–Q plots. Results show statistically significant and complex dependence relationships with the covariate on both nonstationary parameters. The nonstationary flood hazard measure design life level (DLL) was used to compare the relative performances of stationary and nonstationary models in quantifying flood hazard over the period of records. Uncertainty analyses were carried out in every step of the application using the delta method.  相似文献   

Frequency of debris flows and their relation with precipitation: A case study in the Central Alps, Italy     

Manuela Pelfini  Maurizio Santilli 《Geomorphology》2008,101(4):721-730

Debris flows are very important and widespread mass movements, and represent a remarkable geomorphological hazard. This research deals with debris flows in an alpine environment, studied using dendrogeomorphological dating techniques, outlining their relation with precipitation, and analysing possible changes in their frequency and intensity over time. The study area is the upper Valle del Gallo (Northern Italy), a typical high mountain environment dominated by mass wasting processes, where many debris-flow fans occupy the valley bottom. Dendrogeomorphological research was conducted on twelve of these fans and two channels located on slopes. Tree growth anomalies (abrasion scars, compression wood and abrupt growth changes) were used as dating methods. Two hundred and thirty nine debris debris-flow events between 1875 and 2003 were dated using 757 trees (Pinus montana Mill.). Analysis between dated events and precipitation suggests that debris flows in the study area could be triggered by 20–30 mm of rain concentrated in a few hours. The debris-flow frequency tends to increase gradually, but the highest value seems to have occurred in the period 1974–1983. This trend agrees with the historical occurrence of flooding events in Northern Italy as inferred by literature, and with similar studies conducted in the Swiss Alps. The results of this research are intended as a contribution for understanding the response of geomorphological processes to climatic changes.  相似文献   

Cylindrical and Spherical Pistons as Drivers of MHD Shocks     

Tomislav Žic  Bojan Vršnak  Manuela Temmer  Carla Jacobs 《Solar physics》2008,253(1-2):237-247

We consider an expanding three-dimensional (3-D) piston as a driver of an MHD shock wave. It is assumed that the source-region surface accelerates over a certain time interval to achieve a particular maximum velocity. Such an expansion creates a large-amplitude wave in the ambient plasma. Owing to the nonlinear evolution of the wavefront, its profile steepens and after a certain time and distance a discontinuity forms, marking the onset of the shock formation. We investigate how the formation time and distance depend on the acceleration phase duration, the maximum expansion velocity (defining also acceleration), the Alfvén velocity (defining also Mach number), and the initial size of the piston. The model differs from the 1-D case, since in the 3-D evolution, a decrease of the wave amplitude with distance must be taken into account. We present basic results, focusing on the timing of the shock formation in the low- and high-plasma-beta environment. We find that the shock-formation time and the shock-formation distance are (1) approximately proportional to the acceleration phase duration; (2) shorter for a higher expansion velocity; (3) larger in a higher Alfvén speed environment; (4) only weakly dependent on the initial source size; (5) shorter for a stronger acceleration; and (6) shorter for a larger Alfvén Mach number of the source surface expansion. To create a shock causing a high-frequency type II burst and the Moreton wave, the source region expansion should, according to our results, achieve a velocity on the order of 1000 km?s^?1 within a few minutes, in a low Alfvén velocity environment.  相似文献   

On peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods with zero-inflated Poisson arrivals under stationarity and nonstationarity   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Artur Tiago Silva  Maria Manuela Portela  Mauro Naghettini 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1587-1599

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Gravothermal catastrophe in anisotropic spherical systems     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Giuseppe Pucacco  & Enrico Vesperini 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,301(1):25-30

In this paper we investigate the gravothermal instability of spherical stellar systems endowed with a radially anisotropic velocity distribution. We focus our attention on the effects of anisotropy on the conditions for the onset of instability and in particular we study the dependence of the spatial structure of critical models on the amount of anisotropy present in a system. The investigation has been carried out by the method of linear series which has already been used in the past to study the gravothermal instability of isotropic systems._   We consider models described by King, Wilson and Woolley–Dickens distribution functions. In the case of King and Woolley–Dickens models, our results show that, for quite a wide range of the amount of anisotropy in the system, the critical value of the concentration of the system (defined as the ratio of the tidal to the King core radius of the system) is approximately constant and equal to the corresponding value for isotropic systems. Only for very anisotropic systems does the critical value of the concentration start to change and it decreases significantly as the anisotropy increases and penetrates the inner parts of the system. For Wilson models the decrease of the concentration of critical models is preceded by an intermediate regime in which critical concentration increases, reaches a maximum and then starts to decrease. The critical value of the central potential always decreases as the anisotropy increases.  相似文献   

Sedimentation of long-lasting wind-affected volcanic plumes: the example of the 2011 rhyolitic Cordón Caulle eruption,Chile     

Costanza Bonadonna  Raffaello Cioni  Marco Pistolesi  Manuela Elissondo  Valerie Baumann 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2015,77(2):1-19

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Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: I. Forecasting the Solar Wind Parameters     

Bojan Vršnak  Manuela Temmer  Astrid M. Veronig 《Solar physics》2007,240(2):315-330

We analyze the relationship between the coronal hole (CH) area/position and physical characteristics of the associated corotating high-speed stream (HSS) in the solar wind at 1 AU. For the analysis we utilize the data in the period DOY 25 – 125 of 2005, characterized by a very low coronal mass ejection (CME) activity. Distinct correlations between the daily averaged CH parameters and the solar wind characteristics are found, which allows us to forecast the solar wind velocity v, proton temperature T, proton density n, and magnetic field strength B, several days in advance in periods of low CME activity. The forecast is based on monitoring fractional areas A, covered by CHs in the meridional slices embracing the central meridian distance ranges [−40°,−20°], [−10°,10°], and [20°,40°]. On average, the peaks in the daily values of n, B, T, and v appear delayed by 1, 2, 3, and 4 days, respectively, after the area A attains its maximum in the central-meridian slice. The peak values of the solar wind parameters are correlated to the peak values of A, which provides also forecasting of the peak values of n, B, T, and v. The most accurate prediction can be obtained for the solar wind velocity, for which the average relative difference between the calculated and the observed peak values amounts to %. The forecast reliability is somewhat lower in the case of T, B, and n ( , 30, and 40%, respectively). The space weather implications are discussed, including the perspectives for advancing the real-time calculation of the Sun – Earth transit times of coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks, by including more realistic real-time estimates of the solar wind characteristics.  相似文献   

Combining Robustness with Efficiency in?the?Estimation of the Variogram     

Hil��rio Miranda  Manuela Souto?de?Miranda 《Mathematical Geosciences》2011,43(3):363-377

In the present paper, we propose a new method for the estimation of the variogram, which combines robustness with efficiency under intrinsic stationary geostatistical processes. The method starts by using a robust estimator to obtain discrete estimates of the variogram and control atypical observations that may exist. When the number of points used in the fit of a model is the same as the number of parameters, ordinary least squares and generalized least squares are asymptotically equivalent. Therefore, the next step is to fit the variogram by ordinary least squares, using just a few discrete estimates. The procedure is then repeated several times with different subsets of points and this produces a sequence of variogram estimates. The final estimate is the median of the multiple estimates of the variogram parameters. The suggested estimator will be called multiple variograms estimator. This procedure assures a global robust estimator, which is more efficient than other robust proposals. Under the assumed dependence structure, we prove that the multiple variograms estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study confirms that the new method has several advantages when compared with other current methods.  相似文献