On peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods with zero-inflated Poisson arrivals under stationarity and nonstationarity   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Artur Tiago Silva  Maria Manuela Portela  Mauro Naghettini 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1587-1599

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Gravothermal catastrophe in anisotropic spherical systems     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Giuseppe Pucacco  & Enrico Vesperini 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,301(1):25-30

In this paper we investigate the gravothermal instability of spherical stellar systems endowed with a radially anisotropic velocity distribution. We focus our attention on the effects of anisotropy on the conditions for the onset of instability and in particular we study the dependence of the spatial structure of critical models on the amount of anisotropy present in a system. The investigation has been carried out by the method of linear series which has already been used in the past to study the gravothermal instability of isotropic systems._   We consider models described by King, Wilson and Woolley–Dickens distribution functions. In the case of King and Woolley–Dickens models, our results show that, for quite a wide range of the amount of anisotropy in the system, the critical value of the concentration of the system (defined as the ratio of the tidal to the King core radius of the system) is approximately constant and equal to the corresponding value for isotropic systems. Only for very anisotropic systems does the critical value of the concentration start to change and it decreases significantly as the anisotropy increases and penetrates the inner parts of the system. For Wilson models the decrease of the concentration of critical models is preceded by an intermediate regime in which critical concentration increases, reaches a maximum and then starts to decrease. The critical value of the central potential always decreases as the anisotropy increases.  相似文献   

The influence of topographic variables on treeline trees under different environmental conditions     

Giovanni Leonelli  Anna Masseroli  Manuela Pelfini 《自然地理学》2016,37(1):56-72

Aiming to analyze the site conditions of treeline trees at the highest elevations, we investigated 360 km of treelines in the Upper Valtellina, Italian Alps. We analyzed approximately five trees per km and determined the environmental factors limiting treeline elevation by distinguishing between geomorphologic constraints (mean elevation 2355 m), climatic constraints (2530 m), and human impacts (2335 m). Up to 82% of the 1814 analyzed treeline trees were influenced by geomorphological constraints, whereas human impacts influenced only 3% of the trees. Climatic treelines (15% of trees) were most common in the western sector. Moreover we analyzed the frequency distributions of elevation, slope, and aspect. Elevation was the most important variable that was also strongly associated with climatic treelines. The slope variable was more strongly associated with treelines limited by geomorphology than by climate. By reconstructing the altitudinal dynamics at the Mt. Confinale study site, we found rates of an ongoing treeline upward shift of up to 2.6 m/y in the period 2000–2009. Our results indicate that climatic conditions related to the ongoing air temperature rise in this region will likely enhance the treeline shift, especially at high elevations (>2400 m a.s.l.) and on non-extreme slopes (<45°).  相似文献   

Fibrous minerals from Somma-Vesuvius volcanic complex     

Manuela Rossi  Fabrizio Nestola  Maria R. Ghiara  Francesco Capitelli 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,110(4):471-489

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Patterns in megabenthic assemblages on a seamount summit (Ormonde Peak,Gorringe Bank,Northeast Atlantic)          下载免费PDF全文

Manuela Ramos  Iacopo Bertocci  Fernando Tempera  Gonçalo Calado  Mónica Albuquerque  Pedro Duarte 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(5):1057-1072

Gettysburg and Ormonde are two shallow peaks located on the Gorringe seamount about 200 and 240 km WSW off Cape St. Vincent (Portugal, NE Atlantic), within the Portuguese Economic Exclusive Zone. Despite the ecological importance of the biological assemblages on these peaks and the need to preserve seamounts as valuable habitats, no management plans have been yet implemented at this site, which only recently has been included in the list of Sites of Community Importance of Portugal. Video imagery collected using a ROV during the 2011 Oceana campaigns was used here to analyse qualitative and quantitative patterns of benthic assemblage composition at the summit of the seamount (between 30 and 230 m depth). The results suggest that Ormonde is a biologically important area made up of vulnerable marine ecosystem elements that change significantly with depth. These include: kelp beds, in the euphotic zone; encrusting coralline algal communities and solitary colonies or mixed associations of suspension‐feeders (scleractinians, gorgonians, antipatharians, encrusting demosponges and ascidians), at the lower limit of the euphotic zone; mixed coral gardens and erect sponges, in the disphotic zone; and dense sponge aggregations, on the upper slope. These results were further used to propose amendments to the European Nature Information System habitat classification as a tool to work towards resolving the seamounts management issue. The results also provide information on taxa and habitats with high ecological value and classified as threatened or vulnerable, which is essential for the implementation of the cornerstones of Europe's biodiversity conservation policy, namely the OSPAR Convention and the EU Habitats Directive.  相似文献   

Influence of different land uses on groundwater quality in southern Portugal     

Alexandra Marchã Penha  António Chambel  Martinho Murteira  Manuela Morais 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(7):622

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Sedimentation of long-lasting wind-affected volcanic plumes: the example of the 2011 rhyolitic Cordón Caulle eruption,Chile     

Costanza Bonadonna  Raffaello Cioni  Marco Pistolesi  Manuela Elissondo  Valerie Baumann 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2015,77(2):1-19

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Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: I. Forecasting the Solar Wind Parameters     

Bojan Vršnak  Manuela Temmer  Astrid M. Veronig 《Solar physics》2007,240(2):315-330

We analyze the relationship between the coronal hole (CH) area/position and physical characteristics of the associated corotating high-speed stream (HSS) in the solar wind at 1 AU. For the analysis we utilize the data in the period DOY 25 – 125 of 2005, characterized by a very low coronal mass ejection (CME) activity. Distinct correlations between the daily averaged CH parameters and the solar wind characteristics are found, which allows us to forecast the solar wind velocity v, proton temperature T, proton density n, and magnetic field strength B, several days in advance in periods of low CME activity. The forecast is based on monitoring fractional areas A, covered by CHs in the meridional slices embracing the central meridian distance ranges [−40°,−20°], [−10°,10°], and [20°,40°]. On average, the peaks in the daily values of n, B, T, and v appear delayed by 1, 2, 3, and 4 days, respectively, after the area A attains its maximum in the central-meridian slice. The peak values of the solar wind parameters are correlated to the peak values of A, which provides also forecasting of the peak values of n, B, T, and v. The most accurate prediction can be obtained for the solar wind velocity, for which the average relative difference between the calculated and the observed peak values amounts to %. The forecast reliability is somewhat lower in the case of T, B, and n ( , 30, and 40%, respectively). The space weather implications are discussed, including the perspectives for advancing the real-time calculation of the Sun – Earth transit times of coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks, by including more realistic real-time estimates of the solar wind characteristics.  相似文献   

Combining Robustness with Efficiency in?the?Estimation of the Variogram     

Hil��rio Miranda  Manuela Souto?de?Miranda 《Mathematical Geosciences》2011,43(3):363-377

In the present paper, we propose a new method for the estimation of the variogram, which combines robustness with efficiency under intrinsic stationary geostatistical processes. The method starts by using a robust estimator to obtain discrete estimates of the variogram and control atypical observations that may exist. When the number of points used in the fit of a model is the same as the number of parameters, ordinary least squares and generalized least squares are asymptotically equivalent. Therefore, the next step is to fit the variogram by ordinary least squares, using just a few discrete estimates. The procedure is then repeated several times with different subsets of points and this produces a sequence of variogram estimates. The final estimate is the median of the multiple estimates of the variogram parameters. The suggested estimator will be called multiple variograms estimator. This procedure assures a global robust estimator, which is more efficient than other robust proposals. Under the assumed dependence structure, we prove that the multiple variograms estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study confirms that the new method has several advantages when compared with other current methods.  相似文献   

Shrinking and Cooling of Flare Loops in a Two-Ribbon Flare     

Bojan Vršnak  Manuela Temmer  Astrid Veronig  Marian Karlický  Jun Lin 《Solar physics》2006,234(2):273-299

We analyze the evolution of the flare/postflare-loop system in the two-ribbon flare of November 3, 2003, utilizing multi-wavelength observations that cover the temperature range from several tens of MK down to 10⁴ K. A non-uniform growth of the loop system enables us to identify analogous patterns in the height–time, h(t), curves measured at different temperatures. The “knees,” “plateaus,” and “bends” in a higher-temperature curve appear after a certain time delay at lower heights in a lower-temperature curve. We interpret such a shifted replication as a track of a given set of loops (reconnected field lines) while shrinking and cooling after being released from the reconnection site. Measurements of the height/time shifts between h(t) curves of different temperatures provide a simultaneous estimate of the shrinkage speed and cooling rate in a given temperature domain, for a period of almost ten hours after the flare impulsive phase. From the analysis we find the following: (a) Loop shrinkage is faster at higher temperatures – in the first hour of the loop-system growth, the shrinkage velocity at 5 MK is 20 – 30 km s⁻¹, whereas at 1 MK it amounts to 5 km s⁻¹; (b) Shrinking becomes slower as the flare decays – ten hours after the impulsive phase, the shrinkage velocity at 5 MK becomes 5 km s⁻¹; (c) The cooling rate decreases as the flare decays – in the 5 MK range it is 1 MK min⁻¹ in the first hour of the loop-system growth, whereas ten hours later it decreases to 0.2 MK min⁻¹; (d) During the initial phase of the loop-system growth, the cooling rate is larger at higher temperatures, whereas in the late phases the cooling rate apparently does not depend on the temperature; (e) A more detailed analysis of shrinking/cooling around one hour after the impulsive phase reveals a deceleration of the loop shrinkage, amounting to ā ≈ 10 m s⁻² in the T < 5 MK range; (f) In the same interval, conductive cooling dominates down to T ≈ 3 MK, whereas radiation becomes dominant below T ≈ 2 MK; (g) A few hours after the impulsive phase, radiation becomes dominant across the whole T < 5 MK range. These findings are compared with results of previous studies and discussed in the framework of relevant models.  相似文献