Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Bas J. van Ruijven  Marc A. Levy  Arun Agrawal  Frank Biermann  Joern Birkmann  Timothy R. Carter  Kristie L. Ebi  Matthias Garschagen  Bryan Jones  Roger Jones  Eric Kemp-Benedict  Marcel Kok  Kasper Kok  Maria Carmen Lemos  Paul L. Lucas  Ben Orlove  Shonali Pachauri  Tom M. Parris  Anand Patwardhan  Arthur Petersen  Benjamin L. Preston  Jesse Ribot  Dale S. Rothman  Vanessa J. Schweizer 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):481-494

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.  相似文献   

Dissolution–precipitation processes governing the carbonation and silicification of the serpentinite sole of the New Caledonia ophiolite     

Marc?UlrichEmail author  Manuel?Mu?oz  Stéphane?Guillot  Michel?Cathelineau  Christian?Picard  Benoit?Quesnel  Philippe?Boulvais  Clément?Couteau 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(1):952

The weathering of mantle peridotite tectonically exposed to the atmosphere leads commonly to natural carbonation processes. Extensive cryptocrystalline magnesite veins and stock-work are widespread in the serpentinite sole of the New Caledonia ophiolite. Silica is systematically associated with magnesite. It is commonly admitted that Mg and Si are released during the laterization of overlying peridotites. Thus, the occurrence of these veins is generally attributed to a per descensum mechanism that involves the infiltration of meteoric waters enriched in dissolved atmospheric CO₂. In this study, we investigate serpentinite carbonation processes, and related silicification, based on a detailed petrographic and crystal chemical study of serpentinites. The relationships between serpentine and alteration products are described using an original method for the analysis of micro-X-ray fluorescence images performed at the centimeter scale. Our investigations highlight a carbonation mechanism, together with precipitation of amorphous silica and sepiolite, based on a dissolution–precipitation process. In contrast with the per descensum Mg/Si-enrichment model that is mainly concentrated in rock fractures, dissolution–precipitation process is much more pervasive. Thus, although the texture of rocks remains relatively preserved, this process extends more widely into the rock and may represent a major part of total carbonation of the ophiolite.  相似文献   

Modelling river water temperature using deterministic,empirical, and hybrid formulations in a Mediterranean stream     

Rafael Marcé  Joan Armengol 《水文研究》2008,22(17):3418-3430

River water temperature is a common target of water quality models at the watershed scale, owing to its principal role in shaping biogeochemical processes and in stream ecology. Usually, models include physically‐based, deterministic formulations to calculate water temperatures from detailed meteorological information, which usually comes from meteorological stations located far from the river reaches. However, alternative empirical approaches have been proposed, that usually depend on air temperature as master variable. This study explored the performance of a semidistributed water quality application modelling river water temperature in a Mediterranean watershed, using three different approaches. First, a deterministic approach was used accounting for the different heat exchange components usually considered in water temperature models. Second, an empirical approximation was applied using the equilibrium temperature concept, assuming a linear relationship with air temperature. And third, a hybrid approach was constructed, in which the temperature equilibrium concept and the deterministic approach were combined. Results showed that the hybrid approach gave the best results, followed by the empirical approximation. The deterministic formulation gave the worst results. The hybrid approach not only fitted daily river water temperatures, but also adequately modelled the daily temperature range (maximum–minimum daily temperature). Other river water features directly dependent on water temperature, such as river intrusion depth in lentic systems (i.e. the depth at which the river inflow plunges to equilibrate density differences with lake water), were also correctly modelled even at hourly time steps. However, results for the different heat fluxes between river and atmosphere were very unrealistic. Although direct evidence of discrepancies between meteorological drivers measured at the meteorological stations and the actual river microclimate was not found, the use of models including empirical or hybrid formulations depending mainly on air temperature is recommended if only meteorological data from locations far from the river reaches are available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Allende multicompound chondrule (ACC)—Chondrule formation in a local super‐dense region of the early solar system          下载免费PDF全文

Addi Bischoff  Gerhard Wurm  Marc Chaussidon  Marian Horstmann  Knut Metzler  Mona Weyrauch  Julia Weinauer 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2017,52(5):906-924

In Allende, a very complex compound chondrule (Allende compound chondrule; ACC) was found consisting of at least 16 subchondrules (14 siblings and 2 independents). Its overall texture can roughly be described as a barred olivine object (BO). The BO texture is similar in all siblings, but does not exist in the two independents, which appear as relatively compact olivine‐rich units. Because of secondary alteration of pristine Allende components and the ACC in particular, only limited predictions can be made concerning the original compositions of the colliding melt droplets. Based on textural and mineralogical characteristics, the siblings must have been formed on a very short time scale in a dense, local environment. This is also supported by oxygen isotope systematics showing similar compositions for all 16 subchondrules. Furthermore, the ACC subchondrules are isotopically distinct from typical Allende chondrules, indicating formation in or reaction with a more ¹⁶O‐poor reservoir. We modeled constraints on the particle density required at the ACC formation location, using textural, mineral‐chemical, and isotopic observations on this multicompound chondrule to define melt droplet collision conditions. In this context, we discuss the possible relationship between the formation of complex chondrules and the formation of macrochondrules and cluster chondrites. While macrochondrules may have formed under similar or related conditions as complex chondrules, cluster chondrites certainly require different formation conditions. Cluster chondrites represent a mixture of viscously deformed, seemingly young chondrules of different chemical and textural types and a population of older chondrules. Concerning the formation of ACC calculations suggest the existence of very local, kilometer‐sized, and super‐dense chondrule‐forming regions with extremely high solid‐to‐gas mass ratios of 1000 or more.  相似文献   

Study and application of the resonant secular dynamics beyond Neptune     

Melaine Saillenfest  Marc Fouchard  Giacomo Tommei  Giovanni B. Valsecchi 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,127(4):477-504

We use a secular representation to describe the long-term dynamics of transneptunian objects in mean-motion resonance with Neptune. The model applied is thoroughly described in Saillenfest et al. (Celest Mech Dyn Astron, doi: 10.1007/s10569-016-9700-5, 2016). The parameter space is systematically explored, showing that the secular trajectories depend little on the resonance order. High-amplitude oscillations of the perihelion distance are reported and localised in the space of the orbital parameters. In particular, we show that a large perihelion distance is not a sufficient criterion to declare that an object is detached from the planets. Such a mechanism, though, is found unable to explain the orbits of Sedna or \(2012\text {VP}_{113}\), which are insufficiently inclined (considering their high perihelion distance) to be possibly driven by such a resonant dynamics. The secular representation highlights the existence of a high-perihelion accumulation zone due to resonances of type 1:k with Neptune. That region is found to be located roughly at \(a\in [100;300]\) AU, \(q\in [50;70]\) AU and \(I\in [30;50]^{\circ }\). In addition to the flux of objects directly coming from the Scattered Disc, numerical simulations show that the Oort Cloud is also a substantial source for such objects. Naturally, as that mechanism relies on fragile captures in high-order resonances, our conclusions break down in the case of a significant external perturber. The detection of such a reservoir could thus be an observational constraint to probe the external Solar System.  相似文献   

Non-resonant secular dynamics of trans-Neptunian objects perturbed by a distant super-Earth     

Melaine Saillenfest  Marc Fouchard  Giacomo Tommei  Giovanni B. Valsecchi 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,129(3):329-358

We use a secular model to describe the non-resonant dynamics of trans-Neptunian objects in the presence of an external ten-Earth-mass perturber. The secular dynamics is analogous to an “eccentric Kozai mechanism” but with both an inner component (the four giant planets) and an outer one (the eccentric distant perturber). By the means of Poincaré sections, the cases of a non-inclined or inclined outer planet are successively studied, making the connection with previous works. In the inclined case, the problem is reduced to two degrees of freedom by assuming a non-precessing argument of perihelion for the perturbing body. The size of the perturbation is typically ruled by the semi-major axis of the small body: we show that the classic integrable picture is still valid below about 70 AU, but it is progressively destroyed when we get closer to the external perturber. In particular, for \(a>150\) AU, large-amplitude orbital flips become possible, and for \(a>200\) AU, the Kozai libration islands at \(\omega =\pi /2\) and \(3\pi /2\) are totally submerged by the chaotic sea. Numerous resonance relations are highlighted. The most large and persistent ones are associated with apsidal alignments or anti-alignments with the orbit of the distant perturber.  相似文献   

Convection in large bodies of water open to the atmosphere     

Marc Ingber 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-4):319-331

Abstract

Convection in large bodies of water open to the atmosphere is studied as a two-layer system, which allows for the accurate modeling of the interfacial boundary conditions. The Biot number associated with the heat transfer across the interface becomes a result of the analysis rather than a condition. The linear and nonlinear analyses yield essentially the same stability results, providing a sharp stability limit.  相似文献   

Ecological niches of Arctic deep-sea copepods: Vertical partitioning,dietary preferences and different trophic levels minimize inter-specific competition     

Silke Laakmann  Marc Kochzius  Holger Auel 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(5):741-756

The biodiversity of pelagic deep-sea ecosystems has received growing scientific interest in the last decade, especially in the framework of international marine biodiversity initiatives, such as Census of Marine Life (CoML). While a growing number of deep-sea zooplankton species has been identified and genetically characterized, little information is available on the mechanisms minimizing inter-specific competition and thus allowing closely related species to co-occur in the deep-sea pelagic realm. Focussing on the two dominant calanoid copepod families Euchaetidae and Aetideidae in Fram Strait, Arctic Ocean, the present study strives to characterize ecological niches of co-occurring species, with regard to vertical distribution, dietary composition as derived from lipid biomarkers, and trophic level on the basis of stable isotope signatures. Closely related species were usually restricted to different depth layers, resulting in a multi-layered vertical distribution pattern. Thus, vertical partitioning was an important mechanism to avoid inter-specific competition. Species occurring in the same depth strata usually belonged to different genera. They differed in fatty acid composition and trophic level, indicating different food preferences. Herbivorous Calanus represent major prey items for many omnivorous and carnivorous species throughout the water column. The seasonal and ontogenetic vertical migration of Calanus acts as a short-cut in food supply for pelagic deep-sea ecosystems in the Arctic.  相似文献   

Assessing the impact of the hydraulic properties of a crusted soil on overland flow modelling at the field scale     

Nane Chahinian  Marc Voltz  Roger Moussa  Gwenn Trotoux 《水文研究》2006,20(8):1701-1722

Soil surface crusts are widely reported to favour Hortonian runoff, but are not explicitly represented in most rainfall‐runoff models. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of soil surface crusts on infiltration and runoff modelling at two spatial scales, i.e. the local scale and the plot scale. At the local scale, two separate single ring infiltration experiments are undertaken. The first is performed on the undisturbed soil, whereas the second is done after removal of the soil surface crust. The HYDRUS 2D two‐dimensional vertical infiltration model is then used in an inverse modelling approach, first to estimate the soil hydraulic properties of the crust and the subsoil, and then the effective hydraulic properties of the soil represented as a single uniform layer. The results show that the crust hydraulic conductivity is 10 times lower than that of the subsoil, thus illustrating the limiting role the crust has on infiltration. Moving up to the plot scale, a rainfall‐runoff model coupling the Richards equation to a transfer function is used to simulate Hortonian overland flow hydrographs. The previously calculated hydraulic properties are used, and a comparison is undertaken between a single‐layer and a double‐layer representation of the crusted soil. The results of the rainfall‐runoff model show that the soil hydraulic properties calculated at the local scale give acceptable results when used to model runoff at the plot scale directly, without any numerical calibration. Also, at the plot scale, no clear improvement of the results can be seen when using a double‐layer representation of the soil in comparison with a single homogeneous layer. This is due to the hydrological characteristics of Hortonian runoff, which is triggered by a rainfall intensity exceeding the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil surface. Consequently, the rainfall‐runoff model is more sensitive to rainfall than to the subsoil's hydrodynamic properties. Therefore, the use of a double‐layer soil model to represent runoff on a crusted soil does not seem necessary, as the increase of precision in the soil discretization is not justified by a better performance of the model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Supermassive black hole merger rates: uncertainties from halo merger theory     

Adrienne L. Erickcek  Marc Kamionkowski  Andrew J. Benson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,371(4):1992-2000

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