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First- and second-order adaptation to natural hazards and extreme events in the context of climate change 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Jörn Birkmann 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(2):811-840
This paper deals with coping and adaptation processes to natural hazards and (potential) climate change impacts. Selected
response measures to natural hazards are critically reviewed with respect to the actual and potential consequences that these
measures might imply for additional adaptation needs and changes within social-ecological systems. In this context, the author
introduces the concept of first- and second-order adaptation processes in order to underline the cascade process that adaptation
implies, the potentials for failure, and the limits of adaptation. Important aspects of first- and second-order adaptation
processes as well as the issue of the limits of adaptation are illustrated based on observations and empirical work conducted
in Vietnam. In its final part, the paper discusses the findings in light of selected theoretical approaches that might help
to understand how stabilization and destabilization processes are influenced or even triggered by adaptation measures. 相似文献
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Giancarlo Bellucci Joern Helbert Francesca Altieri Dennis Reiss Jean-Pierre Bibring Stephan van Gasselt Harald Hoffmann Yves Langevin Gerhard Neukum Franois Poulet 《Icarus》2007,192(2):361-377
In this paper we report about a small region on the northern scarp of Olympus Mons showing an increase of the 3 μm hydration band in the OMEGA spectra, together with low superficial temperatures. Although water ice clouds can occurs on the flank of big martian volcanoes, radiative transfer modeling indicates that atmospheric water ice alone cannot justify the shape of the observed band. A fit of the 1.9–3 μm absorption features is obtained by hypothesizing that the study region consists of a mixture of dust and water ice covered by an optically thin (τ=0.08 at 3 μm) layer of dust. Thermal modeling also suggests that water ice in this region may be stable during most of the martian year due to the saturation of the atmosphere. If water ice is responsible for the observed spectral behavior, it might consist of a number of ice or snow patches possibly deposited in small depressions. 相似文献
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Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Bas J. van Ruijven Marc A. Levy Arun Agrawal Frank Biermann Joern Birkmann Timothy R. Carter Kristie L. Ebi Matthias Garschagen Bryan Jones Roger Jones Eric Kemp-Benedict Marcel Kok Kasper Kok Maria Carmen Lemos Paul L. Lucas Ben Orlove Shonali Pachauri Tom M. Parris Anand Patwardhan Arthur Petersen Benjamin L. Preston Jesse Ribot Dale S. Rothman Vanessa J. Schweizer 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):481-494
This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance. 相似文献
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J. Birkmann P. Buckle J. Jaeger M. Pelling N. Setiadi M. Garschagen N. Fernando J. Kropp 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(3):637-655
Disaster associated with natural hazards can lead to important changes—positive or negative—in socio-ecological systems. When
disasters occur, much attention is given to the direct disaster impacts as well as relief and recovery operations. Although
this focus is important, it is noteworthy that there has been little research on the characteristics and progress of change
induced by disasters. Change, as distinct from impacts, encompasses formal and informal responses to disaster events and their
direct and indirect impacts. While smaller disasters do not often lead to significant changes in societies and organizational
structures, major disasters have the potential to change dominant ways of thinking and acting. Against this background, the
article presents an analytical framework for distinguishing change from disaster impacts. Drawing from research in Sri Lanka
and Indonesia, formal and informal changes after the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 are examined and discussed against the background
of the conceptual framework. The changes examined range from the commencement of the peace process in Aceh, Indonesia, to
organizational and legal reforms in Sri Lanka. The article concludes that change-making processes after disasters need to
be understood more in depth in order to derive important strategic policy and methodological lessons learned for the future,
particularly in view of the increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making due to climate change. 相似文献
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Joern Thiede Ola M. Johannessen 《《幕》》2008,31(1):163-167
The Nordic countries have produced famous polar explorers and researchers who have generated climate research schools at a variety of locations. The dependence of these countries with respect to the lifelihood of their societies, of their use of lands and seas, the exploitation of marine living and non-living resources have made climate research an eminent topic, and many outstanding discoveries of longand short-term climate change have been made for the first time in Scandinavia. These include early contributions to our understanding of the geological effects of continent-wide glaciations during the ice ages, the complex postglacial history of the Baltic Sea and the varved sediment sequences preserved from lakes with an extraordinary seasonality in their sediment input, as well as the detailed records of temperature, ice texture and impurities and greenhouse gas variations of the last Glacial and of the Holocene preserved in the ice cores from Greenland. Iceland with its volcanic sequences and intercalated sediment layers not only preserved the history of this subaerial segment of the mid-Atlantic Ridge, but also easily datable paleoclimate records. The fate of the Vikings, who settled during the Medieval climate optimum on Iceland and later on Greenland and who lost their habitat on Greenland at the beginning of the Little Ice Age, illustrates vividly the climate-dependent subsistence of the indigenous and non-indigenous Scandinavian populations. Modern Scandinavian climate research institutions also include sophisticated modelling groups. 相似文献
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J. Birkmann O. D. Cardona M. L. Carreño A. H. Barbat M. Pelling S. Schneiderbauer S. Kienberger M. Keiler D. Alexander P. Zeil T. Welle 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(2):193-211
The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts. 相似文献