1990s长江流域降水趋势分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

苏布达  姜彤  施雅风  Stefan BECKER  Marco GEMMER 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):38-48

依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.  相似文献   

长江流域降水变化及其趋势演变   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stefan BECKER  Marco GEMMER  姜彤 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):123-130

本文对中国长江流域降水趋势进行了分析.指出对月降水量而言,20世纪后50年不同区域出现1不胃的降水趋势变化特征.趋势插补法研究表明中国降水时空分布趋势十分明显.对长江流域长期降水资料分析研究指出夏季月份降水时间更集中,而对年降水而言在一些站则表现出明显的周期变化.  相似文献   

基于GIS/RS的洪湖东分洪区洪水风险制图     

Marco GEMMER 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):166-172

本文计算了洪湖东分洪区洪灾损失.洪水风险带以模拟的洪水淹没深度表示.这是洪水风险综合评价模型的基础.本项研究基于GIS为基础的水动力模型计算洪水淹没深度;并以GIS/RS为基础建立了单位洪水风险评价模型,计算不同洪水风险带的直接损失.研究表明,综合洪水风险评价模型在长江流域应用是可行的.  相似文献   

The contribution of scattering to near-surface attenuation     

Marco Pilz  Donat Fäh 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(4):837-855

The rapid decrease of the acceleration spectral amplitude at high frequencies has widely been modeled by the spectral decay factor kappa (κ). Usually, the path-corrected component of κ, often called κ₀, is believed to be a local and frequency-independent site characteristic, in turn representing attenuation related to waves propagating vertically through the very shallow layers beneath the study site. Despite the known relevance of κ₀ in a wide range of seismological applications, most methods for its calculation do not fully consider the influence of the scattering component. To account for the scattering component, we present a summary of statistical observations of the seismic wavefield at sites of the Swiss seismic networks. The intrinsic properties of the wavefield show a clear dependency on the local shallow subsoil conditions with differences in the structural heterogeneity of the shallow subsoil layers producing different scattering regimes. Such deviations from the ballistic behavior (i.e., direct waves that sample only distinct directions) are indicative for local structural heterogeneities and the associated level of scatter. Albeit the attenuation term related to scattering depends nonlinearly on the intrinsic term, the results indicate that the commonly used explanation for the high-frequency decay spectrum might not be appropriate but involving the amount of scattering might allow better constrained estimates of κ₀.  相似文献   

Mechanisms linking active rock glaciers and impounded surface water formation in high‐mountain areas          下载免费PDF全文

Nicola Colombo  Luigi Sambuelli  Cesare Comina  Chiara Colombero  Marco Giardino  Stephan Gruber  Gaetano Viviano  Livia Vittori Antisari  Franco Salerno 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(2):417-431

Rock glaciers are slowly flowing mixtures of debris and ice occurring in mountains. They can represent a reservoir of water, and melting ice inside them can affect surface water hydrochemistry. Investigating the interactions between rock glaciers and water bodies is therefore necessary to better understand these mechanisms. With this goal, we elucidate the hydrology and structural setting of a rock glacier–marginal pond system, providing new insights into the mechanisms linking active rock glaciers and impounded surface waters. This was achieved through the integration of waterborne geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography and self‐potentials) and heat tracing. Results of these surveys showed that rock glacier advance has progressively filled the valley depression where the pond is located, creating a dam that could have modified the level of impounded water. A sub‐surface hydrological window connecting the rock glacier to the pond was also detected, where an inflow of cold and mineralised underground waters from the rock glacier was observed. Here, greater water contribution from the rock glacier occurred following intense precipitation events during the ice‐free season, with concomitant increasing electrical conductivity values. The outflowing dynamic of the pond is dominated by a sub‐surface seepage where a minor fault zone in bedrock was found, characterised by altered and highly‐fractured rocks. The applied approach is evaluated here as a suitable technique for investigating logistically‐complex hydrological settings which could be possibly transferred to wider scales of investigation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Italian guidelines for seismic risk classification of constructions: technical principles and validation     

Edoardo Cosenza  Ciro Del Vecchio  Marco Di Ludovico  Mauro Dolce  Claudio Moroni  Andrea Prota  Emanuele Renzi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(12):5905-5935

The Italian “Guidelines for the seismic risk classification of constructions” approved in February 2017 define the technical principles for exploiting tax deductions with respect to seismic strengthening interventions on existing buildings (Sismabonus). Tax deductions represent a unique opportunity to improve the seismic safety of the existing Italian building stock. The guidelines are very simple and allow practitioners to deal with the sophisticated concepts behind modern seismic design, such as expected annual losses (EAL) and repair costs (expressed as a fraction of the Reconstruction Cost: %RC). The seismic risk classes of buildings and the class upgrade due to strengthening interventions can be assessed using the principles included in the guidelines. The seismic risk class is the minimum between the class defined by the building safety index at the ultimate limit state and the one related to the EAL. The latter class depends on the area under the curve of the expected losses, which is easily obtained by computing the safety index converted in the return period (annual frequency) at different limit states and the relevant %RC. This paper illustrates the technical principles at the base of the guidelines and the procedure used to calibrate the repair costs associated with the different limit states using the actual repair costs monitored in the reconstruction process following recent Italian earthquakes. Finally, simple tools to estimate the cost of the strengthening interventions to improve the seismic capacity at the life-safety limit states are provided.  相似文献   

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change     

Alberto Troccoli  Filippo Zambon  Kevin I. Hodges  Marco Marani 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):1065-1079

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.  相似文献   

Cretaceous tectonic evolution of the Neo-Tethys in Central Iran:Evidence from petrology and age of the Nain-Ashin ophiolitic basalts     

Tahmineh Pirnia  Emilio Saccani  Ghodrat Torabi  Marco Chiari  Spela Gorican  Edoardo Barbero 《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(1):57-81

The Nain and Ashin ophiolites consist of Mesozoic melange units that were emplaced in the Late Cretaceous onto the continental basement of the Central-East Iran microcontinent(CEIM).They largely consist of serpentinized peridotites slices;nonetheless,minor tectonic slices of sheeted dykes and pillow lavas-locally stratigraphically associated with radiolarian cherts-can be found in these ophiolitic melanges.Based on their whole rock geochemistry and mineral chemistry,these rocks can be divided into two geochemical groups.The sheeted dykes and most of the pillow lavas show island arc tholeiitic(IAT)affinity,whereas a few pillow lavas from the Nain ophiolites show calc-alkaline(CA)affinity.Petrogenetic modeling based on trace elements composition indicates that both IAT and CA rocks derived from partial melting of depleted mantle sources that underwent enrichment in subduction-derived components prior to melting.Petrogenetic modeling shows that these components were represented by pure aqueous fluids,or sediment melts,or a combination of both,suggesting that the studied rocks were formed in an arc-forearc tectonic setting.Our new biostratigraphic data indicate this arc-forearc setting was active in the Early Cretaceous.Previous tectonic interpretations suggested that the Nain ophiolites formed,in a Late Cretaceous backarc basin located in the south of the CEIM(the so-called Nain-Baft basin).However,recent studies showed that the CEIM underwent a counter-clockwise rotation in the Cenozoic,which displaced the Nain and Ashin ophiolites in their present day position from an original northeastward location.This evidence combined with our new data and a comparison of the chemical features of volcanic rocks from different ophiolites around the CEIM allow us to suggest that the Nain-Ashin volcanic rocks and dykes were formed in a volcanic arc that developed on the northern margin of the CEIM during the Early Cretaceous in association with the subduction,below the CEIM,of a Neo-Tethys oceanic branch that was existing between the CEIM and the southern margin of Eurasia.As a major conclusion of this paper,a new geodynamic model for the Cretaceous evolution of the CEIM and surrounding Neo-Tethyan oceanic basins is proposed.  相似文献   

Early Jurassic palaeoenvironments in the Surat Basin,Australia – marine incursion into eastern Gondwana     

Andrew D. La Croix  Jianhua He  Valeria Bianchi  Jiahao Wang  Sebastian Gonzalez  Jim R. Undershultz 《Sedimentology》2020,67(1):457-485

Interpretations of palaeodepositional environments are important for reconstructing Earth history. Only a few maps showing the Jurassic depositional environments in eastern Australia currently exist. Consequently, a detailed understanding of the setting of Australia in Gondwana is lacking. Core, wireline logs, two-dimensional and three-dimensional seismic from the Precipice Sandstone and Evergreen Formation in the Surat Basin have been used to construct maps showing the evolution of depositional environments through the Early Jurassic. The results indicate the succession consists of three third-order sequences (Sequence 1 to Sequence 3) that were controlled by eustatic sea level. The lowstand systems tract in Sequence 1 comprises braidplain deposits, confined to a fairway that parallels the basin centre. The strata were initially deposited in two sub-basins, with rivers flowing in different orientations in each sub-basin. The transgressive systems tract of Sequence 1 to lowstand systems tract of Sequence 3 is dominated by fluvio–deltaic systems infilling a single merged basin centre. Finally, the transgressive and highstand systems tracts of Sequence 3 show nearshore environments depositing sediment into a shallow marine basin. In the youngest part of this interval, ironstone shoals are the most conspicuous facies, the thickness and number of which increase towards the north and east. This study interprets a corridor to the open ocean through the Clarence–Moreton Basin, or the Carpentaria and Papuan basins, evidence of which has been eroded. These results challenge a commonly held view that eastern Australia was not influenced by eustasy, and propose a more dynamic palaeogeographic setting comprising a mixture of fluvial, deltaic and shallow marine sedimentary environments. This work can be used to unravel the stratigraphic relationships between Mesozoic eastern Australian basins, or in other basins globally as an analogue for understanding the complex interplay of paralic depositional systems in data poor areas.  相似文献   

Can inpainting improve digital terrain analysis? Comparing techniques for void filling,surface reconstruction and geomorphometric analyses     

Stefano Crema  Manel Llena  Aleix Calsamiglia  Joan Estrany  Lorenzo Marchi  Damià Vericat  Marco Cavalli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(3):736-755

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