Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation     

Yago Martín  Marcos Rodrigues Mimbrero  María Zúñiga-Antón 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(1):367-381

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.  相似文献   

Unfolding relations between land cover and farm management: high nature value assessment in complex silvo-pastoral systems     

Mara Almeida  Carlos Guerra  Teresa Pinto-Correia 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(2):97-108

The high nature value (HNV) concept, proposed by the European Environment Agency, recognizes that specific farming systems support high biodiversity levels, mainly as a result of extensive management practices. The Portuguese montado is one of the most significant HNV systems in southern Europe. However, considering the great complexity characterizing these systems both in land management and in landscape structure, a specific context-oriented methodology to assess which montado areas are likely to be classified as HNV farmland is needed. In this sense, the aim of this study is to explore a methodological approach which makes it possible to assess land management pressures through land cover information on these complex silvo-pastoral systems. The proposed methodology was tested through a local case study in a montado area in southern Portugal, assessing the relation between management practices and a vegetation cover index. Results show that in similar montado areas different land management strategies varying in stocking density, but also in type of grazing animals and shrub control practices, configure different vegetation cycles. These results indicate there is a way to develop a straightforward methodology to assess the HNV value of Mediterranean silvo-pastoral systems based on land cover indicators. These would make it possible to assess the HNV of montado areas with direct and objective information and independent of farmer’s surveys or other farm-based data.  相似文献   

Crustal structure and tectonic setting of the south central Andes from gravimetric analysis     

Cecilia Weidmann  Silvana Spagnotto  Orlando Álvarez  Marcos Sánchez  Federico Lince Klinger  Mario Giménez  Patricia Martínez 《Geofísica Internacional》2013,52(3):197-208

Based on terrestrial gravity data, in this paper we prepared a map of Bouguer anomalies, which was filtered to separate shallow and deep gravity sources. Based on a density model and gravimetric inversion techniques, the discontinuous crust-mantle boundary and the top of crystalline basement were modeled. Subsequently, the equivalent elastic thickness (Te) was evaluated, considering information from the crust-mantle discontinuity and topographic load, finding high Te values in the eastern Andean foothills and west of the Velasco range. These results are consistent with the positive isostatic and residual Bouguer anomaly values, which suggest the presence of high-density rocks in the mid-to upper crust. In addition, petrographic and geochemical analysis conducted in surface outcrops suggest a mantle origin.  相似文献   

Disentangling the role of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during the Amazonian droughts in 2015     

Schumacher  Vanúcia  Justino  Flávio  Leonardo  Noele F.  Pereira  Marcos P. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):1057-1067

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - El Niño events lead to worldwide changes in the inter-annual variability of precipitation, and more in particular to South America droughts. In the year...  相似文献   

Climatic consequences of gradual desertification in the semi-arid area of Northeast Brazil     

Dayana Castilho de Souza  Marcos Daisuke Oyama 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,103(3-4):345-357

The climatic impacts of gradual desertification in the semi-arid area of Northeast Brazil (SANEB) were evaluated using the MM5 regional model. Simulations for the rainy season of SANEB (March, April, and May) were performed. Desertification simulations were grouped into three numerical runs: total (all SANEB covered by desert), partial (desert areas placement based on future environmental degradation scenarios for SANEB), and random desertification (desert areas placed randomly within SANEB). Total desertification led to a pronounced and significant precipitation reduction in large parts of SANEB. Climatic impacts of partial desertification were guided by the southward expansion of desert areas. For intermediate desertification extensions, a dipole pattern with precipitation reduction (increase) in the northern (southern) areas of SANEB was found. Random desertification led to climatic impacts spread over the whole SANEB. In both partial and random desertification, a quasi-linear precipitation reduction was found as desertification extension increases.  相似文献   

Cotton Fiber/ZrO2, A New Material for Adsorption of Cr(VI) Ions in Water     

Alfredo Alberto Muxel  Sonia Maria Nobre Gimenez  Flaveli Aparecida de Souza Almeida  Rení Ventura da Silva Alfaya  Antonio Alberto da Silva Alfaya 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2011,39(3):289-295

The natural cotton fiber was used to synthesize an anion exchange, containing ZrO₂ film on its surface, NCFZC (natural cotton fiber/ZrO₂ composite). This anion exchanger was produced by the reaction of the zirconium oxychloride and hydroxyl groups on surface of the natural cotton fiber. The material was used for Cr(VI) ions adsorption studies. Adsorption equilibrium time and optimum pH for Cr(VI) adsorption were found to be 6 h and 4.0, respectively. The Langmuir and Temkin isotherms were used to models adsorption equilibrium data. The adsorption capacity of NCFZC was found to be 1.33 mmol/g. Kinetic studies showed that the rate of adsorption of Cr(VI) on NCFZC obeyed a pseudo‐second‐order kinetic model.  相似文献   

Geology and geochronology of the Betara region in south-southeastern Brazil: Evidence for possible Statherian (1.80–1.75 Ga) and Calymmian (1.50–1.45 Ga) extension events     

Oswaldo Siga  Leonardo Fadel Cury  Ian McReath  Ligia Maria de Almeida Leite Ribeiro  Kei Sato  Miguel Ângelo Stipp Basei  Cláudia Regina Passarelli 《Gondwana Research》2011,19(1):260-274

The results of geological mapping, chemical analysis and radiometric dating of metabasic rocks of Betara Formation, and mapping and dating of those present in the Betara basement nucleus together with mylonitic granodiorite and syenogranite are reported here. U–Pb analysis of bulk zircon fractions from the metabasic rocks of the basement nucleus yielded a Statherian age of 1790 ± 22 Ma, while the metabasic rocks from the upper part of the Betara Formation yielded a Calymmian age between 1500 and 1450 Ma. This age is a minimum for the deposition of the Betara Formation. The older metabasic rocks are associated with post-tectonic, possibly anorogenic syenogranite, while the younger ones are gabbro or very porphyritic ankaramite whose REE patterns are consistent with crystallization from an N-MORB parent magma. The observations and data point to the probable events associated with extensional processes of the end of Paleoproterozoic and early Mesoproterozoic. Similar registers of Statherian (1.80–1.75 Ga) and Calymmian (1.50–1.45 Ga) extensional events are recorded in other parts of the South American and African continents. The Neoproterozoic witnessed the formation and junction of the tectonic slices which formed the Apiaí domain during the assemblage of western Gondwana.  相似文献   

Environmental assessment of water from a uranium mine (Caldas,Minas Gerais State,Brazil) in a decommissioning operation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Michelle Burato Campos  Heliana de Azevedo  Marcos Roberto Lopes Nascimento  Cláudio Vítor Roque  Suzelei Rodgher 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,62(4):857-863

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Reproductive biology of Spondias tuberosa Arruda (Anacardiaceae), an endemic fructiferous species of the caatinga (dry forest), under different management conditions in northeastern Brazil     

A.L.S. Almeida  C.C. Castro 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(4):330-337

In areas under different management conditions (management units, MUs) located either on a slope or at the base of a slope and either in a plantation or in a pasture, we compared the flower and fruit production, floral visitors, visitation rates and pre-emergent reproductive success (PERS) of Spondias tuberosa (Anacardiaceae) in an area of dry forest in NE Brazil. Individuals in the plantation MU produced more flowers per inflorescence than those in other MUs, but there were no statistical differences in mean fruit set among MUs. The only difference in mean visitation rates was between the plantation (65.83 ± 38.49) and the slope sites (11.5 ± 12.8). We observed visits by 19 insect species, including bees (31.6%), butterflies (31.6%), wasps (26.3%) and flies (10.5%). A clustering analysis based on the number of visits showed that a) the plantation site is most different from the other MUs, b) the pasture and the site at the base of the slope are similar to the slope site, and c) the higher frequency of visits of pollinators in the plantation MU was responsible for these differences. Of the 19 species of insects visiting the flowers, 12 were considered pollinators. The pollinator similarity analysis indicated a clear separation between areas and suggested that human activity has resulted in the replacement of native pollinators by exotic species. However, these changes apparently have not affected the pre-emergent reproductive success of S. tuberosa. Our results show that plant reproductive biology in semi-arid ecosystems may be modified by human action and that changes in floral production and pollinator guilds are the most conspicuous effects. However, the traditional management performed by local people may not affect the reproductive success of plant species.  相似文献   

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters     

Giovanni Dolif  Andre Engelbrecht  Alessandro Jatobá  Antônio José Dias da Silva  José Orlando Gomes  Marcos R. S. Borges  Carlos A. Nobre  Paulo Victor R. de Carvalho 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1831-1847

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.  相似文献