Short Term and Short Range Seismicity Patterns in Different Seismic Areas of the World     

R. Console  F. Di Luccio  M. Murru  M. Imoto  G. Stavrakakis 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(2-3):107-121

The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M₂ subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M₁ in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M₂) = 10^{a + b(M1 - M2)} with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).  相似文献   

Mantle source heterogeneity in the Campanian Region (South Italy) as inferred from geochemical and isotopic features of mafic volcanic rocks with shoshonitic affinity   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

M. D'Antonio  L. Civetta  P. Di Girolamo 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1999,67(3-4):163-192

Summary Major, trace element and Sr-Nd-isotopic data on mafic volcanic rocks with shoshonitic affinity from the islands of Procida and Ventotene (Campanian Region, South Italy) are reported. Within-suite chemical and isotopic variations are interpreted in terms of open system differentiation processes held responsible for enrichment in a number of trace elements and for radiogenic Sr observed in both Procida and Ventotene volcanic sequences. Conversely, trace element contents and Sr-Nd-isotopic compositions of the least-evolved among the investigated samples are thought to reflect source region characteristics with only negligible crustal contamination of the primary magmas.The data support an origin from distinct source regions for the primary magmas. In the case of Ventotene, the source would have been asthenospheric and/or lithospheric mantle with features similar to transitional mid-ocean ridge basalts (T-MORB), modified by enriching agents made up mainly of subducted slab-released components coming from marly sediments (about 7%) similar to cherts from Tuscan Apennines plus a limestone contribution. In the case of Procida, the source would have been asthenospheric and/or lithospheric mantle with a slightly more enriched T-MORB-like feature with respect to Ventotene, modified by slab-derived enriching agents, likely represented by a small amount of sediments (about 2.5%) of oceanic nature (mostly terrigenous/pelagic). These differences are constrained by lower Zr/Nb, Y/Nb, Sc/Nb, V/Nb, LILE/HFSE, LREE/HFSE and⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, higher Ba/La and¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios, as well as by the lack of a detectable negative Eu anomaly, in the least-evolved volcanic rocks of Procida, with respect to those of Ventotene, which show conversely a significant negative Eu anomaly. Thus, a sharp heterogeneity exists in the mantle beneath the Campanian Region. It is thought to be the consequence of two different slabs which are in contact along the Volturno River Plain tectonic line: a continental slab, seismically inactive, descending beneath the Latium Region, and an oceanic slab, seismically active, descending beneath the Calabria, up to the Campanian Region.

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Résumé De nouvelles analyses géochimiques d'éléments majeurs et en traces ainsi que des rapports isotopiques du Sr et du Nd sont été obtenues sur des roches volcaniques mafiques à affinité shoshonitiques provenant des îles de Procida et Ventotene (Région Campanienne, Italie du Sud). Les variations géochimiques et isotopiques observées au sein des séries volcaniques de ces deux îles sont interprétées en terme de processus de différenciation en système ouvert, tenu pour responsable d'un enrichissement d'un certain nombre d'éléments en traces et de leur composition en Sr radiogénique. Cependant, les teneurs en éléments traces et les compositions isotopiques en Sr et Nd des échantillons les moins évolués parmi ceux étudiés reflètent les caractéristiques de leur source, avec une contamination crustale très négligeable des magmas primitifs.Ces données démontrent que des sources distinctes sont à l'origine des magmas primitifs. Pour Ventotene, cette source doit être un manteau asthénosphérique et/ou lithosphérique dont la signature est similaire à celle de basaltes transitionnels de dorsale océanique (T MORB), légèrement enrichie en éléments dérivants d'une croûte plongeant dans une subduction comme des sédiments mameux (pour environ 7%) analogues aux cherts des Appenins de Toscane et comportant un apport en calcaire. Dans le cas de Procida, cette source doit être un manteau asthénosphérique et/ou lithosphérique montrant une signature de type T-MORB légèrement plus enrichie qu' à Ventotene, également modifiée par un apport venant d'une croûte en subduction, probablement une faible quantité (environ 2.5%) de sédiments de nature océanique (principalement terrigène/pélagique). Ces différences sont attestées par des rapports Zr/Nb, Y/Nb, Sc/Nb, V/Nb, LILE/HFSE, LREE/HSFE and⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr plus bas et des rapports Ba/La et¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd plus harts, ainsi que par l'absence d'une anomalie en Eu dans les compositions des roches volcaniques les moins évoluées de Procida par rapport à celles de Ventotene, qui elles, au contraire, montrent une anomalie en Eu significative.Ainsi, une importante hétérogénéité du manteau existe sous la Campanie. Cette hétérogénéité doit être la conséquence de la nature différente des croûtes en subduction et qui sont en contact le long de la ligne tectonique de la plaine de la rivière Volturno: an Nord-Ouest, une croûte continentale, sismiquement inactive, plonge sous le Latium alors qu'au Sud-Est, une croûte océanique, sismiquement active, plonge sous la Calabre et jusque sous la Campanie.

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With 9 Figures  相似文献   

高美古与凤凰山水汽含量的统计分析     

栾蒂 《天文研究与技术》1999,(1):12

介绍了利用北京师范大学研制的ＩＲＡ－９３５型红外水汽测量仪对云南丽江高美古天文候选点及昆明凤凰山对比点上空垂直大气水汽积分含量Ｗ０的观测结果,给出了两地Ｗ０的日变化曲线及分布图,并对全年测量数据的统计结果作了分析和讨论  相似文献   

辽宁省地震易发区地震危险性研究     

李俏  肖遥  底欣欣  郭新  黄淼婉  王超 《震灾防御技术》2020,15(2):392-401

盘锦、海城、营口地区是辽宁省内地震活动性最强、地震危险性最高的地区。该地区开展了大量重点工程地震安全性评价、区域性地震区划和地震小区划工作，但尚未开展基于场地条件的区域尺度地震危险性研究。独有的沉积特点使该地区场地条件较复杂，因此在地震危险性概率分析中考虑场地条件是必要的。本文基于新一代中国地震动参数区划图基本原理和技术原则，结合盘锦、海城、营口地区场地条件特征，采用基于地形坡度的方法对场地条件进行分类，确定场地地震动影响系数，给出该地区基于区域场地条件的地震危险性分布，相关研究结果可为地震风险评估和防震减灾规划提供参考。  相似文献   

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*     

Ida K. Westerberg  Giuliano Di Baldassarre  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):2001-2003

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.  相似文献   

Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time     

E. Ridolfi  F. Albrecht  G. Di Baldassarre 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z3):12-20

ABSTRACT

What implications do societies’ risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. The results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness-raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling.  相似文献   

Geospatial technologies for Chang’e-3 and Chang’e-4 lunar rover missions     

Kaichang Di  Zhaoqin Liu  Wenhui Wan  Man Peng  Bin Liu  Yexin Wang 《地球空间信息科学学报》2020,23(1):87-97

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a brief overview of the geospatial technologies developed and applied in Chang’e-3 and Chang’e-4 lunar rover missions. Photogrammetric mapping techniques were used to produce topographic products of the landing site with meter level resolution using orbital images before landing, and to produce centimeter-resolution topographic products in near real-time after landing. Visual positioning techniques were used to determine the locations of the two landers using descent images and orbital basemaps immediately after landing. During surface operations, visual-positioning-based rover localization was performed routinely at each waypoint using Navcam images. The topographic analysis and rover localization results directly supported waypoint-to-waypoint path planning, science target selection and scientific investigations. A GIS-based digital cartography system was also developed to support rover teleoperation.  相似文献   

Effects of trace metal and exposure to air on serotonin and dopamine levels in tissues of the mussel Perna perna   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Almeida EA  Bainy AC  Medeiros MH  Di Mascio P 《Marine pollution bulletin》2003,46(11):1485-1490

We evaluated levels of serotonin (5HT) and dopamine (DOPA) in muscle and digestive glands of the mussel, Perna perna, collected at different times of day; exposed to air for 24 h, followed by re-submersion; and after exposure to different metals. Mussels collected at different periods of day showed little oscillation in 5HT and DOPA levels. Mussels exposed to metals showed significant changes in 5HT and DOPA levels in digestive gland and muscle, as did mussels exposed to air. Our data suggest that analyses of 5HT and DOPA in tissues of mussels could serve as a tool to evaluate the presence and effects of heavy metal contamination in mussels. Care in data interpretation is required, however, since other environmental factors such as exposure of mussels to air (i.e. at low tides) can also cause changes in DOPA and 5HT levels. Additional research is necessary to separate such natural environmental effects from effects of contaminants.  相似文献   

The effect of chlorite interlayering on <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar–<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar biotite dating: an <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar–<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar laser-probe and TEM investigations of variably chloritised biotites     

Gianfranco?Di VincenzoEmail author  Cecilia?Viti  Sergio?Rocchi 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2003,145(6):643-658

Biotite is one of the most common minerals dated by the ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar method. It frequently shows K contents below the expected stoichiometric value, suggesting the presence of low-K impurities. The most common low-K alteration product of biotite is chlorite. Therefore, it is important to understand the effects of chlorite interlayering on ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages in order to correctly interpret ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data. This study examines the outcome of ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating analyses on variably chloritised biotites from Ordovician intrusive rocks. The infrared (IR) laser-probe technique and different gas extraction methods were adopted. Incremental laser-heating data on bulk samples yielded hump-shaped age profiles with meaningless young and old age steps. Both the extent of anomalous old age steps and the degree of discordance of the age spectra were much more pronounced in the more chloritised biotite samples. In contrast, in situ data on rock chips and total-fusion ages on single biotite flakes yielded ages concordant with, or younger than, the inferred emplacement ages. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was used to texturally characterise biotite samples at the nanometre scale. It was also used to document the complex decomposition-transformation process affecting interlayered biotite–chlorite during in-vacuo IR-laser heating to temperatures ranging from ~600 to >1,000 °C. TEM results suggest that hump-shaped age profiles result from an interplay between ³⁹Ar_K redistribution by recoil during sample irradiation and differential release of argon isotopes hosted in three main reservoirs. These reservoirs are (from least to most retentive): extended defects, chlorite and biotite. The final descending age segment is attributed to the progressive release of argon with increasing temperature from large biotite domains for which ³⁹Ar_K recoil loss was less important. ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data support previous findings, which suggest that ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages when recoil effects are minimised, provide minimum estimates that approach the true biotite age, when the pristine domains are analysed. The most effective approach for obtaining meaningful ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages was using individual total-fusion analyses on carefully selected, single flakes previously split along the basal cleavage by wet-grinding and corresponding to a sample mass of a few micrograms.Editorial responsibility: I Parsons  相似文献   

Natural contribution of harmful elements in thermal groundwaters of Ischia Island (southern Italy)     

A. Lima  D. Cicchella  S. Di Francia 《Environmental Geology》2003,43(8):930-940

Minor and trace element investigations have been performed on groundwaters of Ischia Island, which is located at the western edge of the bay of Naples. Ischia is formed entirely of Quaternary volcanic rocks. Intense seismicity, widespread fumaroles and thermal springs witness the persistent state of activity of its magmatic system. Groundwater samples, 58 from shallow thermal wells and 15 from thermal springs, were analysed for 72 elements by ICP-MS; temperature, pH and electrical conductivity (EC) were measured at the sampling site. Analytical data indicate clearly that the concentrations in the water of some elements, such as As, Be, Cu, Fe, Mn, Sb, Se and Tl, are often higher and sometimes much higher than the intervention limits fixed by the Italian Law DM 471 (25/10/1999) for water. Worthy of mention are the very high As values, reaching >1,000 µg/l in some wells. By means of R-mode factor analysis, 30 of 72 analysed elements were grouped as elemental associations representative of lithological type, water composition and, possibly, mineralization. Ischia thermal groundwaters are the result of mixing, in variable amounts, of deep magmatic fluids that are rich in metallic elements, with marine and/or meteoric waters. R-mode factor analysis and elemental association factor score distributions of the four-factor model confirm the existence of flux of magmatic mineralised fluids with marine and/or meteoric waters. Recharge by seawater intrusions occurs mostly in the north-western area of the island whereas the influence and control of magmatic mineralised fluids is clearly accentuated in the areas of Panza-Citara, Porto di Forio-Fango and Citara-Lido dei Maronti fracture alignments. The observed compositional variability of the analysed groundwaters, even in wells lying close to one another, is due to the local hydrodynamic conditions, controlled mostly by complex fault and fracture systems, which may represent preferential thermal water outflow routes. In general, the average minor and trace element compositions of Ischia thermal waters, when compared with the composition of sea and river water, show an enrichment in metallic elements such as As, Sc, V, Cr, Zn, Mo, U, W, Au, Hg. This paper points out that, in addition to the anthropogenic source, natural contribution also plays an important role in determining the high concentrations of toxic elements in groundwaters, which create health and acceptability problems.  相似文献