The structural vulnerability in the framework of natural hazard risk analyses and the exemplary application for storm loss modelling in Tyrol (Austria)     

Matthias Huttenlau  Johann Stötter 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(2):705-729

In the context of natural hazard-related risk analyses, different concepts and comprehensions of the term risk exist. These differences are mostly subjected to the perceptions and historical backgrounds of the different scientific disciplines and results in a multitude of methodological concepts to analyse risk. The target-oriented selection and application of these concepts depend on the specific research object which is generally closely connected to the stakeholders’ interests. An obvious characteristic of the different conceptualizations is the immanent various comprehensions of vulnerability. As risk analyses from a natural scientific-technical background aim at estimating potential expositions and consequences of natural hazard events, the results can provide an appropriate decision basis for risk management strategies. Thereby, beside the preferably addressed gravitative and hydrological hazards, seismo-tectonical and especially meteorological hazard processes have been rarely considered within multi-risk analyses in an Alpine context. Hence, their comparative grading in an overall context of natural hazard risks is not quantitatively possible. The present paper focuses on both (1) the different concepts of the natural hazard risk and especially their specific expressions in the context of vulnerability and (2) the exemplary application of the natural scientific-technical risk concepts to analyse potential extreme storm losses in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. Following the corresponding general risk concept, the case study first defines the hazard potential, second estimates the exposures and damage potentials on the basis of an existing database of the stock of elements and values, and third analyses the so-called Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) considering the structural vulnerability of the potentially affected elements at risk. Thereby, it can be shown that extreme storm events can induce losses solely to buildings and inventory in the range of EUR 100–150 million in Tyrol. However, in an overall context of potential extreme natural hazard events, the storm risk can be classified with a moderate risk potential in this province.  相似文献   

Tailoring spatial reference in early warning systems to administrative units     

Matthias Lendholt 《Earth Science Informatics》2011,4(1):7-16

This paper presents a novel approach for early warning systems to transform the spatial reference of dispersion models into addressable administrative units enabling an intelligible warning message reception and spatial awareness. The spatial reference along the entire information chain from sensor measurements via dispersion model to warning dissemination is discussed. Core concept behind this approach is the application of the Egenhofer-Model for analysis of binary topologic relations. It is used to identify topologic relations between dispersion model forecasts and administrative units. The result set of intersection matrices defines the relations that are counted for area classification with hazard specific parameters. Following the design for a generic and hazard-independent web service based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards is presented in combination with results of the reference implementation.  相似文献   

Contextual factors influencing sustainable fisheries in Mexico     

Alejandro Espinoza-Tenorio  Ileana Espejel  Matthias Wolff  José Alberto Zepeda-Domínguez 《Marine Policy》2011

Sustainable fisheries take into consideration that managed fisheries ecosystems shift over time in response to evolving environmental as well as market and political factors. These contextual forces are especially valuable in understanding developing countries such as Mexico, where the unconsolidated fisheries administration faces productive marine ecosystems but unsustainable fisheries. To recognize the issues that have inhibited the consolidation of a regulatory system for sustainable fisheries, a contextual factor analysis was applied to the co-development of two current policies in the Mexican fishery regime: fisheries and environmental policies. Six historical phases have been identified in which there are few long periods of stability and frequent short periods of radical change that alternate between stable and adverse contextual situations. These short and contrasting contextual situations cause a kind of tug-of-war in Mexican fisheries policy-making. On the one hand, domestic economic, scientific, and technological forces seem to slowly lead toward the consolidation of sustainable fisheries; on the other hand, domestic policies drift from one position to another at other timing than the international fisheries and environmental policies. Although recent crises seem to highlight new periods of radical change in Mexico, they also provide an opportunity to adopt new structural plans to consolidate domestic forces as a basis for long-term strategies.  相似文献   

Early Palaeozoic deep subduction of continental crust in the Kyrgyz North Tianshan: evidence from Lu–Hf garnet geochronology and petrology of mafic dikes     

Yamirka Rojas-Agramonte  Daniel Herwartz  Antonio García-Casco  Alfred Kröner  Dmitriy V. Alexeiev  Reiner Klemd  Stephan Buhre  Matthias Barth 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,166(2):525-543

High-pressure and ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) eclogite-bearing metamorphic assemblages in the North Tianshan of Kyrgyzstan are known from the Aktyuz and Makbal areas, where eclogites and garnet amphibolites are associated with continental rocks such as granitoid gneisses in Aktyuz and shallow-water clastic (passive margin?) metasediments in Makbal. We present the first Lu–Hf isotope data for an eclogite and two garnet amphibolite samples from the two metamorphic terranes which, combined with petrological analysis, tightly constrain the age of high-pressure metamorphism in the Kyrgyz North Tianshan. A five-point isochron for an Aktyuz eclogite sample provides a Lu–Hf age of 474.3 ± 2.2 Ma, and a four-point isochron on a Makbal sample corresponds to 470.1 ± 2.5 Ma. A prograde, subduction-related path is inferred for both samples with peak P–T conditions ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 GPa and 610–620 °C. A further Makbal sample provided a significantly older Lu–Hf age of 486 ± 5.4 Ma, most likely due to late alteration in the sample (late addition of unradiogenic Hf). We conclude that garnet growth in all three samples occurred around ca. 474 Ma and that these rocks likely experienced UHP metamorphism contemporaneously. Our results support previous geochronological evidence for an Early Ordovician collision belt in the North Tianshan and allow refinement of a tectonic model involving subduction of thinned continental crust to considerable depth along the margin of a small microcontinent.  相似文献   

Seasonality in low latitudes during the Oxfordian (Late Jurassic) reconstructed via high-resolution stable isotope analysis of the oyster Actinostreon marshi (J. Sowerby, 1814) from the Kachchh Basin, western India     

Matthias Alberti  Franz T. Fürsich  Dhirendra K. Pandey 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,102(5):1321-1336

A high-resolution stable isotope (δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C) analysis of a specimen of the oyster Actinostreon marshi (J. Sowerby, 1814) from the Lower Oxfordian of the Kachchh Basin in western India was used to reconstruct average seasonal temperatures over a consecutive time interval of 10 years. The recorded temperatures during this period varied around a mean of 13 °C (maximum: 15.1 °C; minimum: 11.4 °C) with a generally low seasonality between 1 and 3 °C. Such weak seasonal changes can be expected from a subtropical palaeolatitude between 25° and 30°S. However, the low average temperatures are in contrast to studies on broadly contemporaneous fossils from Europe and the southern Malagasy Gulf which point to much warmer conditions in these areas. It is therefore proposed that the low temperatures in the Kachchh Basin are caused by upwelling currents which influenced the north-western coast of India during the Late Jurassic.  相似文献   

Investigating hydrological drivers of nitrate export dynamics in two agricultural catchments in Germany using high-frequency data series   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Marc Schwientek  Karsten Osenbrück  Matthias Fleischer 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,69(2):381-393

In this study near-continuous time series of nitrate, electrical conductivity, and discharge were used to identify the dominating hydrological mechanisms that control nitrate export dynamics in two agricultural catchments. The main goal was to assess relationships between contrasting event based as well as long-term nitrate transport behaviour and catchment hydrology. Data records were obtained from online probes that allow field based high-frequency analyses over long time periods. The catchments of the Ammer River (southwestern Germany) and the Weida River (eastern Germany) are similar with respect to size (~100 km²), morphology, and climate and are dominated by agricultural use. Main differences are the stronger urbanization and the occurrence of karstic rocks in the Ammer catchment. Nitrate concentrations are high in water of both streams and range mostly between 20 and 50 mg l^?1. Nitrate export in the Ammer catchment is dominated by baseflow and a minor second, diluting runoff component generated in urbanized areas. In contrast, nitrate dynamics of the Weida catchment is governed by the interplay of at least three runoff components, while the largest amount of nitrate is mobilized intermittently by a delayed fast component generated in the catchment’s soils during wet conditions. These interpretations, derived with one online probe at the outlet of each catchment, are well in line with the former modeling results. This study shows that high-resolution data obtained by online techniques offers a large potential to improve the conceptualization of dominating flow and transport processes at catchment scales at relatively low costs and effort.  相似文献   

Influence of instruments on the H/V spectral ratios of ambient vibrations   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Bertrand Guillier  Kuvvet Atakan  Jean-Luc Chatelain  Jens Havskov  Matthias Ohrnberger  Fabrizio Cara  Anne-Marie Duval  Stratos Zacharopoulos  Paula Teves-Costa  The SESAME Team 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(1):3-31

For an optimal analysis of the H/V curve, it appears necessary to check the instrument signal to noise ratio in the studied frequency band, to ensure that the signal from the ground noise is well above the internal noise. We assess the reliability and accuracy of various digitizers, sensors and/or digitizer-sensor couples. Although this study is of general interest for any kind of seismological study, we emphasize the influence of equipment on H/V analysis results. To display the impact of the instrumental part on the H/V behavior, some series of tests have been carried out following a step-by-step procedure: first, the digitizers have been tested in the lab (sensitivity, internal noise...), then the three components sensors, still in the lab, and finally the usual user digitizers-sensors couple in lab and outdoors. In general, the digitizer characteristics, verified during this test, correspond well to the manufacturer specifications, however, depending on the digitizer, the quality of the digitized waveform can be very good to very poor, with variation from a channel to another channel (gain, time difference etc.). It appears very clearly that digitizers need a warming up time before the recording to avoid problems in the low-frequency range. Regarding the sensors, we recommend strongly to avoid the use of “classical” accelerometers (i.e., usual force balance technology). The majority of tested seismometers (broadband and short period, even 4.5 Hz) can be used without problems from 0.4 to 25 Hz. In all cases, the instrumentation should be checked first to verify that it works well for the defined study aim, but also to define its limit of use (frequency, sensitivity...).  相似文献   

Stable carbon isotope distribution of particulate organic matter in the ocean: a model study   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Matthias Hofmann  Dieter A. Wolf-Gladrow  Taro Takahashi  Steward C. Sutherland  Katharina D. Six  Ernst Maier-Reimer 《Marine Chemistry》2000,72(2-4)

The stable carbon isotopic composition of particulate organic matter in the ocean, δ¹³C_POC, shows characteristic spatial variations with high values in low latitudes and low values in high latitudes. The lowest δ¹³C_POC values (−32‰ to −35‰) have been reported in the Southern Ocean, whereas in arctic and subarctic regions δ¹³C_POC values do not drop below −27‰. This interhemispheric asymmetry is still unexplained. Global gradients in δ¹³C_POC are much greater than in δ¹³C_DIC, suggesting that variations in isotopic fractionation during organic matter production are primarily responsible for the observed range in δ¹³C_POC. Understanding the factors that control isotope variability is a prerequisite when applying δ¹³C_POC to the study of marine carbon biogeochemistry. The present model study attempts to reproduce the δ¹³C_POC distribution pattern in the ocean. The three-dimensional (3D) Hamburg Model of the Oceanic Carbon Cycle version 3.1 (HAMOCC3.1) was combined with two different parametrizations of the biological fractionation of stable carbon isotopes. In the first parametrization, it is assumed that the isotopic fractionation between CO₂ in seawater and the organic material produced by algae, _P, is a function of the ambient CO₂ concentration. The two parameters of this function are derived from observations and are not based on an assumption of any specific mechanism. Thus, this parametrization is purely empirical. The second parametrization is based on fractionation models for microalgae. It is supported by several laboratory experiments. Here the fractionation, _P, depends on the CO₂ concentration in seawater and on the (instantaneous) growth rates, μ_i, of the phytoplankton. In the Atlantic Ocean, where most field data are available, both parametrizations reproduce the latitudinal variability of the mean δ¹³C_POC distribution. The interhemispheric asymmetry of δ¹³C_POC can mostly be attributed to the interhemispheric asymmetry of CO₂ concentration in the water. However, the strong seasonal variations of δ¹³C_POC as reported by several authors, can only be explained by a growth rate-dependent fractionation, which reflects variations in the cellular carbon demand.  相似文献   

Experimental impact cratering: A summary of the major results of the MEMIN research unit     

Thomas Kenkmann  Alex Deutsch  Klaus Thoma  Matthias Ebert  Michael H. Poelchau  Elmar Buhl  Eva-Regine Carl  Andreas N. Danilewsky  Georg Dresen  Anja Dufresne  Nathanaël Durr  Lars Ehm  Christian Grosse  Max Gulde  Nicole Güldemeister  Christopher Hamann  Lutz Hecht  Stefan Hiermaier  Tobias Hoerth  Astrid Kowitz  Falko Langenhorst  Bernd Lexow  Hanns-Peter Liermann  Robert Luther  Ulrich Mansfeld  Dorothee Moser  Manuel Raith  Wolf Uwe Reimold  Martin Sauer  Frank Schäfer  Ralf Thomas Schmitt  Frank Sommer  Jakob Wilk  Rebecca Winkler  Kai Wünnemann 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(8):1543-1568

This paper reviews major findings of the Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact Crater Research Network (MEMIN). MEMIN is a consortium, funded from 2009 till 2017 by the German Research Foundation, and is aimed at investigating impact cratering processes by experimental and modeling approaches. The vision of this network has been to comprehensively quantify impact processes by conducting a strictly controlled experimental campaign at the laboratory scale, together with a multidisciplinary analytical approach. Central to MEMIN has been the use of powerful two-stage light-gas accelerators capable of producing impact craters in the decimeter size range in solid rocks that allowed detailed spatial analyses of petrophysical, structural, and geochemical changes in target rocks and ejecta. In addition, explosive setups, membrane-driven diamond anvil cells, as well as laser irradiation and split Hopkinson pressure bar technologies have been used to study the response of minerals and rocks to shock and dynamic loading as well as high-temperature conditions. We used Seeberger sandstone, Taunus quartzite, Carrara marble, and Weibern tuff as major target rock types. In concert with the experiments we conducted mesoscale numerical simulations of shock wave propagation in heterogeneous rocks resolving the complex response of grains and pores to compressive, shear, and tensile loading and macroscale modeling of crater formation and fracturing. Major results comprise (1) projectile–target interaction, (2) various aspects of shock metamorphism with special focus on low shock pressures and effects of target porosity and water saturation, (3) crater morphologies and cratering efficiencies in various nonporous and porous lithologies, (4) in situ target damage, (5) ejecta dynamics, and (6) geophysical survey of experimental craters.  相似文献   

Classifier ensembles for land cover mapping using multitemporal SAR imagery   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Bjrn Waske  Matthias Braun 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2009,64(5):450-457

SAR data are almost independent from weather conditions, and thus are well suited for mapping of seasonally changing variables such as land cover. In regard to recent and upcoming missions, multitemporal and multi-frequency approaches become even more attractive. In the present study, classifier ensembles (i.e., boosted decision tree and random forests) are applied to multi-temporal C-band SAR data, from different study sites and years. A detailed accuracy assessment shows that classifier ensembles, in particularly random forests, outperform standard approaches like a single decision tree and a conventional maximum likelihood classifier by more than 10% independently from the site and year. They reach up to almost 84% of overall accuracy in rural areas with large plots. Visual interpretation confirms the statistical accuracy assessment and reveals that also typical random noise is considerably reduced. In addition the results demonstrate that random forests are less sensitive to the number of training samples and perform well even with only a small number. Random forests are computationally highly efficient and are hence considered very well suited for land cover classifications of future multifrequency and multitemporal stacks of SAR imagery.  相似文献