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71.
We present new near-infrared integral field spectroscopy and adaptive optics imaging of the nucleus of NGC 1068. Using the stellar CO absorption features in the H and K bands, we have identified a moderately extincted stellar core centered on the nuclear position and of intrinsic size ~50 pc. We show that this nuclear stellar core is probably 5-16 × 108 years in age and contributes at least 7% of the total nuclear luminosity of ~1 × 1011 L⊙. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
72.
The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 50E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger scale operational model system. Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation.  相似文献   
73.
Growing up and cleaning up: The environmental Kuznets curve redux   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Borrowing from the Kuznets curve literature, researchers have coined the term “environmental Kuznets curve” or EKC to characterize the relationship between pollution levels and income: pollution levels will increase with income but some threshold of income will eventually be reached, beyond which pollution levels will decrease. The link between the original Kuznets curve, which posited a similar relationship between income and inequality, and its pollution-concerned offspring lies primarily with the shape of both curves (an upside-down U) and the central role played by income change. Although the EKC literature has burgeoned over the past several years, few concrete conclusions have been drawn, the main themes of the literature have remained constant, and no consensus has been reached regarding the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve. EKC research has used a variety of types of data and a range of geographical units to examine the effects of income levels on pollution. Changes in pollution levels might also be at least partly explained by countries’ position in the demographic transition and their general population structure, however little research has included this important aspect in the analysis. In addition, few analyses confine themselves to an evaluation for one country of the long-term relationship between income and pollution. Using United States CO2 emissions as well as demographic, employment, trade and energy price data, this paper seeks to highlight the potential impact of population and economic structure in explaining the relationship between income and pollution levels.  相似文献   
74.
This study compares the surface wind speed and forest damage data of two exceptionally severe winter storms, Vivian 1990 and Lothar 1999. The study area comprises the region that suffered damage in Switzerland. The wind speed data were derived from simulations of MeteoSwiss (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology), measurements during the storm periods and expert analyses of the data. The remotely sensed forest damage data were provided by the Federal Office for the Environment and the forest cover data by Swiss Federal Statistical Office. We compared data on the peak gust and maximum average wind speed, with data on the spatially related forest area and forest damage area, and found some clear differences in the correlations between the different wind data and forest damage. Our results point generally to the damage-causing role of near-surface gusts at maximum wind speeds during the storm. These tended to be spatially distributed on a fine scale. In only a few cases were the results statistically significant. However, these results could probably be improved with better wind data. For example, gust measurements spatially closer to forests or simulations of gusts at maximum wind speed could be produced with a spatially higher resolution.  相似文献   
75.
For the first time we present a multi-proxy data set for the Russian Altai, consisting of Siberian larch tree-ring width (TRW), latewood density (MXD), δ13C and δ18O in cellulose chronologies obtained for the period 1779–2007 and cell wall thickness (CWT) for 1900–2008. All of these parameters agree well between each other in the high-frequency variability, while the low-frequency climate information shows systematic differences. The correlation analysis with temperature and precipitation data from the closest weather station and gridded data revealed that annual TRW, MXD, CWT, and δ13C data contain a strong summer temperature signal, while δ18O in cellulose represents a mixed summer and winter temperature and precipitation signal. The temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments were used to investigate the correspondence of different independent proxies. Low frequency patterns in TRW and δ13C chronologies are consistent with temperature reconstructions from nearby Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments showing a pronounced warming trend in the last century. Their combination could be used for the regional temperature reconstruction. The long-term δ18O trend agrees with the precipitation reconstruction from the Teletskoe lake sediment indicating more humid conditions during the twentieth century. Therefore, these two proxies could be combined for the precipitation reconstruction.  相似文献   
76.
Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825 km long coastline of Metro Boston, USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments, and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis shows that the cumulative 100 year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas.  相似文献   
77.
An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.  相似文献   
78.
Previous measurements of urban energy balances generally have been limited to densely built, central city sites and older suburban locations with mature tree canopies that are higher than the height of the buildings. In contrast, few data are available for the extensive, open vegetated types typical of low-density residential areas that have been newly converted from rural land use. We made direct measurements of surface energy fluxes using the eddy-covariance technique at Greenwood, a recently developed exurban neighbourhood near Kansas City, Missouri, USA, during an intensive field campaign in August 2004. Energy partitioning was dominated by the latent heat flux under both cloudy and near clear-sky conditions. The mean daytime Bowen ratio (β) values were 0.46, 0.48, and 0.47 respectively for the cloudy, near clear-sky and all-sky conditions. Net radiation (R n ) increased rapidly from dawn (−34 and −58W m−2) during the night to reach a maximum (423 and 630W m−2) after midday for cloudy and near clear-sky conditions respectively. Mean daytime values were 253 and 370W m−2, respectively for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, while mean daily values were 114 for cloudy and 171W m−2 for near clear-sky conditions, respectively. Midday surface albedo values were 0.25 and 0.24 for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, respectively. The site exhibited an angular dependence on the solar elevation angle, in contrast to previous observations over urban and suburban areas, but similar to vegetated surfaces. The latent heat flux (Q E ), sensible heat flux (Q H ), and the residual heat storage ΔQ s terms accounted for between 46–58%, 21–23%, and 18–31% of R n , respectively, for all-sky conditions and time averages. The observed albedo, R n , and Q E values are higher than the values that have been reported for suburban areas with high summer evapotranspiration rates in North America. These results suggest that the rapidly growing residential areas at the exurban fringe of large metropolitan areas have a surface energy balance that is more similar to the rural areas from which they were developed than it is to the older suburbs and city centres that make up the urban fabric to which they are being joined.  相似文献   
79.
Near-total depletions of ozone have been observed in the Arctic spring since the mid 1980s. The autocatalytic reaction cycles involving reactive halogens are now recognized to be of main importance for ozone depletion events in the polar boundary layer. We present sensitivity studies using the model MISTRA in the box-model mode on the influence of chemical species on these ozone depletion processes. In order to test the sensitivity of the chemistry under polar conditions, we compared base runs undergoing fluxes of either Br2, BrCl, or Cl2 to induce ozone depletions, with similar runs including a modification of the chemical conditions. The role of HCHO, H2O2, DMS, Cl2, C2H6, HONO, NO2, and RONO2 was investigated. Cases with elevated mixing ratios of HCHO, H2O2, DMS, Cl2, and HONO induced a shift in bromine speciation from Br / BrO to HOBr/HBr, while high mixing ratios of C2H6 induced a shift from HOBr/HBr to Br/BrO. The shifts from Br/BrO to HOBr/HBr accelerated the aerosol debromination, but also increased the total amount of deposited bromine at the surface (mainly via increased deposition of HOBr). For all NOy species studied (HONO, NO2, RONO2) the chemistry is characterized by an increased bromine deposition on snow reducing the amount of reactive bromine in the air. Ozone is less depleted under conditions of high mixing ratios of NOx. The production of HNO3 led to the acid displacement of HCl, and the release of chlorine out of salt aerosol (Cl2 or BrCl) increased.  相似文献   
80.
Abstract— Puerto Lápice is a new eucrite fall (Castilla‐La Mancha, Spain, 10 May 2007). In this paper, we report its detailed petrography, magnetic characterization, mineral and bulk chemistry, oxygen and noble gas isotope systematics, and radionuclide data. Study of four thin sections from two different specimens reveal that the meteorite is brecciated in nature, and it contains basaltic and granulitic clasts, as well as recrystallized impact melt and breccia fragments. Shock veins are ubiquitous and show evidence of at least three different shock events. Bulk chemical analyses suggest that Puerto Lápice belongs to the main group of basaltic eucrites, although it has a significantly higher Cr content. Oxygen isotopes also confirm that the meteorite is a normal member of the HED suite. Noble gas abundances show typical patterns, with dominant cosmogenic and radiogenic contributions, and indicate an average exposure age of 19 ± 2 Ma, and a Pu‐fission Xe age well within typical eucrite values. Cosmogenic radionuclides suggest a preatmospheric size of about 20–30 cm in diameter.  相似文献   
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