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91.
Ab initio quantum chemistry calculations have been performed on the isotopic exchange reaction between B(OH)3 and B(OH)4. Several calculation methods have been carefully compared and evaluated. The “water-droplet” method is chosen to investigate this isotope exchange reaction using cluster models with up to 34 water molecules surrounding the solute. HF/6-31G* level calculations coupled with a 0.920 scaling factor are used for the frequency calculations. A larger K value (1.027) is obtained from this study compared to the commonly used 1.0194 (Kakihana et al., 1977).The fractionations for several boric acid polymers and boron minerals are also studied. Our results suggest that assuming the BO4 bonding in B(OH)4 is identical to that in borosilicates is wrong. Tetrahedral boron in silicates has a significantly smaller reduced isotopic partition function ratio (RPFR) and hence will be much isotopically lighter than in B(OH)4.The new theoretical curve of pH vs. δ11B composition of B(OH)4 using our calculated 1.027 can be used to predict pH values for equilibrium cases such as incorporation into inorganic calcite. We also find that the shape of this curve is very sensitive to both K and pKa value, giving the possibility of also predicting salinity from the different shapes of the curve.  相似文献   
92.
A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km2 Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.  相似文献   
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The mechanism of the disruption, both lithospheric thinning and oceanization of the commonly accepted long‐term‐stable Archaean craton, is still an open question. The available models, all imply a bottom to top process. With the construction of a 1660‐km‐long transect across the eastern North China Craton (NCC), we demonstrate that both the P‐wave velocity and density in the lowermost crust beneath the central section are significantly higher than in the corresponding parts of the south and north sections on the transect. These features are interpreted as geophysical signature of lower crustal underplating, which supplies sufficiently high gravitational potential energy to trigger lateral flow of the lower crust. This magma underplating‐triggered bilateral lower crust flow may facilitate the lithospheric thinning by means of asthenosphere upwelling and decompression melting, which infill the gap produced by the lower crust flow. The underplating‐triggered lower crustal flow can provide an alternative mechanism to explain the NCC lithosphere disruption, which highlights the crustal feedback to Archaean lithosphere disruption, from top to bottom.  相似文献   
95.
Pressure measurements using drill stem tests and estimates from log data calculation indicate that three vertically stacked regional pressure compartments exist in the Qikou Depression of Bohai Bay Basin, N. China. The compartments comprise hydrostatic, upper weak, and lower overpressure systems. Laterally, overpressure (pressure coefficient > 1.2) occurs in the deeper areas and weakens gradually from the centre to the margin of the depression. The accumulation of oil and gas exhibits the interesting characteristics of oil‐bearing layers above gas‐bearing layers in the Qikou Depression. The pattern can be accounted for by the evolution of overpressure system, the maturity process of the source rock and the main fault activity. In the late Dongying Formation (Ed, 30 Ma), the lower overpressure system began to form shape, and the hydrocarbon sources generated a large volume of oil. However, because there was no migration pathway, the oil only accumulated in the original strata. In the late Guantao Formation (Ng, 12 Ma), the gas was generated, the upper overpressure system formed gradually, and the activity of the main fault gradually increased. Then, the overpressure pushed the early gathered oil to flow from the lower overpressure system into the upper overpressure system. Afterwards, the activity of the main fault decreased again and remains weak until now. Thus, later generated natural gas cannot keep migrating along the main fault and can only accumulate in the lower overpressure system. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.  相似文献   
98.
国家级格点化定量降水预报系统   总被引:10,自引:7,他引:3  
曹勇  刘凑华  宗志平  谌芸  代刊  陈涛  杨寅 《气象》2016,42(12):1476-1482
利用主客观融合降水反演、降水统计降尺度、降水时间拆分等技术构建了国家级格点化定量降水预报系统。该系统结构合理,模块功能明确,于2014年6月在国家气象中心投入业务使用,生成0~168 h时效,10 km分辨率,逐3 h的格点化定量降水预报产品。通过对2015年第13号热带气旋苏迪罗的格点化降水预报个例检验,结果显示,相比欧洲中期数值预报中心的确定性模式预报和预报员主观预报,该产品能更好地体现台风降水的时空精细化分布特点,对福建东北部和浙江东南部的特大暴雨中心位置表现更准确细致。通过对2015年4—9月的格点化产品整体效果检验,结果显示,相比欧洲中期数值预报中心的确定性模式预报和由反距离客观分析后的预报员主观预报,该产品既能保持和预报员主观预报相同的准确率,同时也能较明显地提高降水预报的时空精细化程度。  相似文献   
99.
中短期数字化天气预报技术现状及趋势   总被引:5,自引:3,他引:2  
代刊  曹勇  钱奇峰  高嵩  赵声蓉  谌芸  钱传海 《气象》2016,42(12):1445-1455
建立无缝隙集约化的天气预报业务体系,需要进一步加强中短期天气预报业务技术的发展。通过对现状回顾,指出经过2011—2015年的气象现代化建设,在我国国家级和部分省级业务单位已初步建立了数字化中短期业务预报技术流程,其包括数值模式系统、客观方法释用、预报主观编辑制作以及精细化格点后处理四个方面。但与国外发达国家相比,我国中短期业务技术还存在数值模式发展水平不高、客观预报技术方法未全面深入开展、缺乏有效技术工具支撑预报员进行订正、格点化的处理技术基础薄弱等问题。文章在发展现状和问题分析的基础上,提出未来应提高自主数值模式系统的基础支撑作用,深入发展海量预报信息的客观提取及订正技术,加强开发主观和客观融合的技术和工具平台,完善精细化的格点处理技术的发展思路,并进行具体阐述。最后,从技术发展的基础数据支持、路线选择、发展规律以及交流共享四个方面提出参考意见。  相似文献   
100.
长江中下游地区暖区暴雨特征分析   总被引:8,自引:6,他引:2  
陈玥  谌芸  陈涛  何晗 《气象》2016,42(6):724-731
利用2007到2013年5-9月间常规和非常规资料以及6 h一次的NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,将长江中下游地区暖区暴雨按天气形势划分为冷锋前暖区暴雨、暖切变暖区暴雨以及副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨三种类型。统计表明暖区暴雨一般发生在距离切变线(锋线)100~300 km的暖区内。主要结论包括:(1)冷锋型降水强度偏弱且分布均匀,集中在5、6月;暖切变型发生次数最多且强度大,主要发生在6、7月长江中下游地区的偏南部;副热带高压边缘型发生次数最少但强度较大,发生在7、8月。暖区暴雨的发生次数及强度在大别山、皖南山区较为集中。(2)暖区暴雨中短时强降水贡献大。(3)冷锋背景下的暖区暴雨一般产生在锋前低压槽中,暴雨落区与高低空急流耦合有紧密联系;暖切变型以低层暖切变线为主要天气背景,地面常有弱静止锋,暖区对流活动与中尺度急流结构、地形强迫等因素存在较高的相关性;副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨与局地的水汽积累和对流不稳定条件的发展有密切关系。据此建立三类暖区暴雨的概念模型。  相似文献   
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