Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required     

Naomi E. Vaughan  Timothy M. Lenton  John G. Shepherd 《Climatic change》2009,96(1-2):29-43

Climate change mitigation via a reduction in the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the principle requirement for reducing global warming, its impacts, and the degree of adaptation required. We present a simple conceptual model of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to highlight the trade off between delay in commencing mitigation, and the strength of mitigation then required to meet specific atmospheric CO₂ stabilization targets. We calculate the effects of alternative emission profiles on atmospheric CO₂ and global temperature change over a millennial timescale using a simple coupled carbon cycle-climate model. For example, if it takes 50 years to transform the energy sector and the maximum rate at which emissions can be reduced is ?2.5% $\text{year}^{-1}$ , delaying action until 2020 would lead to stabilization at 540 ppm. A further 20 year delay would result in a stabilization level of 730 ppm, and a delay until 2060 would mean stabilising at over 1,000 ppm. If stabilization targets are met through delayed action, combined with strong rates of mitigation, the emissions profiles result in transient peaks of atmospheric CO₂ (and potentially temperature) that exceed the stabilization targets. Stabilization at 450 ppm requires maximum mitigation rates of ?3% to ?5% $\text{year}^{-1}$ , and when delay exceeds 2020, transient peaks in excess of 550 ppm occur. Consequently tipping points for certain Earth system components may be transgressed. Avoiding dangerous climate change is more easily achievable if global mitigation action commences as soon as possible. Starting mitigation earlier is also more effective than acting more aggressively once mitigation has begun.  相似文献   

Characteristics of alkenones synthesized by a bloom of emiliania huxleyi in the Bering Sea     

Naomi Harada  Kyung Hoon Shin  Masao Uchida 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2003,67(8):1507-1519

We investigated the characteristics of the alkenones produced by a bloom of Emiliania huxleyi in the eastern Bering Sea in 2000. Alkenones were detected in surface waters between 57°N and 63°N, where phosphate concentrations were low and the ammonium/nitrate ratio was high. The total alkenone content (C_37:2, C_37:3, and C_37:4) ranged from 22.0 to 349 μg g⁻¹ in suspended particles and from 0.109 to 1.42 μg g⁻¹ in surface sediments. This suggests that a large proportion of the particulate alkenones synthesized in the surface water rapidly degraded within the water column and/or at the water-sediment interface of the Bering Shelf. The change in the stable carbon isotopic composition (δ¹³C) of C_37:3 alkenone could not be explained only by variation in [CO₂(aq)] in the surface water but also depended on the growth rate of E. huxleyi. The alkenone unsaturation index (U^K′₃₇) was converted into an alkenone “temperature” with three equations [Prahl et al 1988], [Sikes et al 1997] and [Müller et al 1998]; Sikes et al.’s (1997) equation gave the best correlation with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Bering Sea. However, some temperatures estimated by Sikes et al.’s (1997) equation from the U^K′₃₇ varied from the observed SST, possibly because of the rapidly changing rate of alkenone synthesis in the logarithmic growth stage or the low rate of alkenone synthesis when nutrients were limiting. Temperatures estimated from U^K′₃₇ in the surface sediments (6.8-8.2°C) matched the observed SST in September (7-8°C) but differed from the annual average SST of 4 to 5°C, suggesting that most of the alkenone in the eastern Bering Sea was synthesized during limited periods, for instance, in September. The relative amounts of C_37:4 alkenone as proportions of the total alkenones (referred to as C_37:4%) were high, ranging from 18.3 to 41.4%. Low-salinity water (<32 psu) within the study area would have contributed to the high C_37:4% because a negative linear relationship between C_37:4% and salinity was found in this study.  相似文献   

Ba, Si, U, Al, Sc, La, Th, C and C/C in a sediment core in the western subarctic Pacific as proxies of past biological production     

Masahito Shigemitsu  Hisashi Narita  Yutaka W. Watanabe  Naomi Harada  Shizuo Tsunogai 《Marine Chemistry》2007,106(3-4):442-455

A sediment core covering the last 145 kyrs was collected in the western subarctic Pacific (WSAP), and analyzed for Ba, U, Al, Sc, La, Yb, Th, biogenic opal (Opal) and organic carbon (C_org) as well as its isotopic ratio (δ¹³C). This study examined the change of past biological production in WSAP with multiple proxies, together with understanding the relation between Loess from the Asian continent and the biological production. The Loess content was estimated from the metal components, Al, Sc, La, Yb and Th. In this high latitude core (50°N), the Loess content was generally high during the glacial periods, but it was also high even in some interglacial periods. The excess amount of Ba relative to the detrital material composition, Ba_ex, showed the best correlation with the Vostok δD (r = 0.72, p < 0.001), indicating that the biological production was lower in the glacial periods than in the interglacials. This corroborates the pervasive correlation between Ba_ex in the polar region, WSAP and the Antarctic Sea, and Antarctic temperature, combined with previous research. This correlation might be explained by the stratification caused by cooling. In addition, the time variations of Ba_ex in WSAP were similar to those of Ba_ex in the Okhotsk Sea and of other proxies (C_org and Opal) in both the Okhotsk and the Bering Sea, indicating the spatial homogeneity of Ba_ex in WSAP including proximal marginal seas. The Opal content was more weakly correlated with the Vostok δD (r = 0.46, p < 0.001) than Ba_ex, reflecting that Opal in WSAP including proximal marginal seas was spatially heterogeneous compared to Ba_ex. While both the C_org content and U_ex, the excess amount of U relative to the detritus composition, were not positively correlated with the Vostok δD, they behaved similarly in the sediments. The positive correlation between δ¹³C and the Vostok δD (r = 0.42, p < 0.001), between δ¹³C and Ba_ex (r = 0.60, p < 0.001) and between δ¹³C and Opal (r = 0.36, p < 0.01) indicates that δ¹³C in WSAP may give some information on the phytoplankton growth rate. There was not a significant correlation between the spatially homogeneous Ba_ex in WSAP and Loess (r = − 0.16, p > 0.01), suggesting that the increase of biological production with the increase of Loess supply during the glacial periods did not occur.  相似文献   

Flow conditions of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand,inferred from capping bedforms and sedimentary structures     

Montri Choowong  Naomi Murakoshi  Ken‐ichiro Hisada  Thasinee Charoentitirat  Punya Charusiri  Sumet Phantuwongraj  Prawpan Wongkok  Alongkorn Choowong  Rittirong Subsayjun  Vichai Chutakositkanon  Kruawan Jankaew  Pitsanupong Kanjanapayont 《地学学报》2008,20(2):141-149

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami deposited a sheet of sand with surficial bedforms at the Andaman coast of Thailand. Here we show the recognition of bedforms and the key internal sedimentary structures as criteria of the tsunami supercritical flow condition. The presence of well‐preserved capping bedforms implied a dominant tsunami inflow. Sets of internal sedimentary structures including parallel lamination, seaward and landward inclined‐laminations, and downstream dipping laminae indicated antidune structures that were generated by a supercritical flow current in a depositional stage during the inflow. A set of seaward dipping cross‐laminations containing sand with mud drape on the surface of one depositional layer are a unique indication of an outflow structure. A majority of deposits show normal grading, but in some areas, localized reverse grading was also observed. The recognition of these capping bedforms and determination of the internal sedimentary structures provides new key criteria to help derive a better understanding of tsunami flow conditions.  相似文献   

Navy sonar and cetaceans: just how much does the gun need to smoke before we act?     

Parsons EC  Dolman SJ  Wright AJ  Rose NA  Burns WC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(7):1248-1257

Cetacean mass stranding events associated with naval mid-frequency sonar use have raised considerable conservation concerns. These strandings have mostly involved beaked whales, with common pathologies, including "bubble lesions" similar to decompression sickness symptoms and acoustic traumas. However, other cetacean species have also stranded coincident with naval exercises. Possible mechanisms for the strandings include a behavioral response that causes deep divers to alter their diving behavior, which then results in decompression sickness-like impacts. Current mitigation measures during military exercises are focused on preventing auditory damage (hearing loss), but there are significant flaws with this approach. Behavioral responses, which occur at lower sound levels than those that cause hearing loss, may be more critical. Thus, mitigation measures should be revised. A growing number of international bodies recognize this issue and have urged increasing scrutiny of sound-producing activities, but many national jurisdictions have resisted calls for increased protection.  相似文献   

Bathymetry of Lake Lisan controls late Pleistocene and Holocene stream incision in response to base level fall     

Michael Davis  Ari Matmon  Ezra Zilberman  Naomi Porat  Daniel Gluck  Yehouda Enzel 《Geomorphology》2009,106(3-4):352-362

This paper examines the millennial-scale evolution of the longitude profile of Nahal (Wadi) Zin in the Dead Sea basin in the northern Arava valley, Israel. Nahal Zin has incised ~ 50 m into relatively soft late Pleistocene Lake Lisan sediments. Incision was forced by the regressive (> 10 km) lake level fall of a total of > 200 m of Lake Lisan from its highest stand at ~ 25 ka and exposure of the lake-floor sediments to fluvial and coastal processes. Alluvial cut terraces of the incising channel are well preserved along the 17.5 km of the lowermost reach of Nahal Zin. At its outlet into the Dead Sea basin, Nahal Zin deposited a Holocene alluvial fan at the base of a 10–80 m high escarpment in unconsolidated sediments. The escarpment is associated with the Amazyahu fault, which forms the southern structural boundary of the present Dead Sea basin. Geomorphic mapping, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages, and soil stratigraphy allowed correlation of terrace remnants and reconstruction of several past longitudinal profiles of Nahal Zin and its incision history. Together with the published lake level chronology, these data provide an opportunity to examine stream incision related to base level lowering at a millennial scale. OSL ages of the terraces fit relatively well with the established lake level chronology and follow its regression and fall. For a few thousands of years the longitudinal profile response to the lake level fall was downstream lengthening onto the exposed former lake bed. Most of the incision (~ 40 m) occurred later, when the lake level reached the top of the Amazyahu fault escarpment and continued to drop. The incision was a relatively short episode at about 17 ka and cut through this escarpment almost to its base. The fast incision, its timing, and the profiles of the incising channels indicate that the escarpment was an underwater feature and was not formed after the lake retreated.This fairly simple scenario of regressive lake level fall and knickpoint exposure and incision is modeled here using a one-dimensional numerical incision model based on a linear diffusion equation. The calculated diffusion coefficient fits earlier results and data obtained from other streams in the area and confirms the upscaling of this simple model to the millennial scale.  相似文献   

Alteration of gene expression profiles in the brain of Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) exposed to KC-400 or PCB126     

Kei Nakayama  Naomi Sei  Yuji Oshima  Kosuke Tashiro  Yohei Shimasaki  Tsuneo Honjo 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,57(6-12):460

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are known as neurotoxic chemicals and possibly alter animal behavior. We previously reported that PCB-exposure induced abnormal schooling behavior in Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes). This abnormal behavior might be caused by the functional alteration of central or terminal nervous system. To understand the mechanism(s) of behavioral change by PCB-exposure, we analyzed the gene expression profiles in the brain of medaka exposed to 3,3′,4,4′,5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB126) or a PCB mixture (Kanechlor-400: KC-400) using a cDNA microarray that we constructed. Twelve FLF-II strain medaka (six individuals per treatment) were dietary exposed to PCB126 (0.01 μg/g b.w./day) or KC-400 (1 μg/g b.w./day) for three weeks. For the control, six fish were fed a control diet. After the exposure period, fish were dissected, and the brain samples were collected. The samples from control fish were pooled and used as a common reference in the microarray experiment. Microarray data were normalized by the LOWESS method, and we screened the genes whose expression levels were altered more than 1.5-fold. Gene expression profiling showed 97 down-regulated and 379 up-regulated genes in the brain of medaka exposed to PCB126. KC-400 exposure suppressed 15 genes and induced 266 genes in medaka brain. Among these genes, the expression levels of 7 and 188 genes were commonly down- or up-regulated, respectively in both treatment groups. On the other hand, 31 gene expressions were significantly different between PCB126 and KC-400 treatment groups, and three out of 31 genes were received opposite effects. In addition, the microarray data showed that thyroid hormone-responsive genes were up-regulated by PCB-exposure, which may imply that PCBs or their metabolites mimic thyroid hormone effects in the brain of PCB-exposed medaka.  相似文献   

Alteration of gene expression profiles in the brain of Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) exposed to KC-400 or PCB126     

Nakayama K  Sei N  Oshima Y  Tashiro K  Shimasaki Y  Honjo T 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,57(6-12):460-466

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are known as neurotoxic chemicals and possibly alter animal behavior. We previously reported that PCB-exposure induced abnormal schooling behavior in Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes). This abnormal behavior might be caused by the functional alteration of central or terminal nervous system. To understand the mechanism(s) of behavioral change by PCB-exposure, we analyzed the gene expression profiles in the brain of medaka exposed to 3,3',4,4',5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB126) or a PCB mixture (Kanechlor-400: KC-400) using a cDNA microarray that we constructed. Twelve FLF-II strain medaka (six individuals per treatment) were dietary exposed to PCB126 (0.01 microg/g b.w./day) or KC-400 (1 microg/g b.w./day) for three weeks. For the control, six fish were fed a control diet. After the exposure period, fish were dissected, and the brain samples were collected. The samples from control fish were pooled and used as a common reference in the microarray experiment. Microarray data were normalized by the LOWESS method, and we screened the genes whose expression levels were altered more than 1.5-fold. Gene expression profiling showed 97 down-regulated and 379 up-regulated genes in the brain of medaka exposed to PCB126. KC-400 exposure suppressed 15 genes and induced 266 genes in medaka brain. Among these genes, the expression levels of 7 and 188 genes were commonly down- or up-regulated, respectively in both treatment groups. On the other hand, 31 gene expressions were significantly different between PCB126 and KC-400 treatment groups, and three out of 31 genes were received opposite effects. In addition, the microarray data showed that thyroid hormone-responsive genes were up-regulated by PCB-exposure, which may imply that PCBs or their metabolites mimic thyroid hormone effects in the brain of PCB-exposed medaka.  相似文献   

Seasonal and interannual variation of the phytoplankton and copepod dynamics in Liverpool Bay     

Naomi Greenwood  Rodney M. Forster  Veronique Créach  Suzanne J. Painting  Anna Dennis  Stewart J. Cutchey  Tiago Silva  David B. Sivyer  Tim Jickells 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(2):307-320

The seasonal and interannual variability in the phytoplankton community in Liverpool Bay between 2003 and 2009 has been examined using results from high frequency, in situ measurements combined with discrete samples collected at one location in the bay. The spring phytoplankton bloom (up to 29.4 mg chlorophyll m⁻³) is an annual feature at the study site and its timing may vary by up to 50 days between years. The variability in the underwater light climate and turbulent mixing are identified as key factors controlling the timing of phytoplankton blooms. Modelled average annual gross and net production are estimated to be 223 and 56 g C m⁻² year⁻¹, respectively. Light microscope counts showed that the phytoplankton community is dominated by diatoms, with dinoflagellates appearing annually for short periods of time between July and October. The zooplankton community at the study site is dominated by copepods and use of a fine mesh (80 μm) resulted in higher abundances of copepods determined (up to 2.5 × 10⁶ ind. m⁻²) than has previously reported for this location. There is a strong seasonal cycle in copepod biomass and copepods greater than 270 μm contribute less than 10% of the total biomass. Seasonal trends in copepod biomass lag those in the phytoplankton community with a delay of 3 to 4 months between the maximum phytoplankton biomass and the maximum copepod biomass. Grazing by copepods exceeds net primary production at the site and indicates that an additional advective supply of carbon is required to support the copepod community.  相似文献   

Eyes of the landscape – Value,conservation and management of European ponds     

Naomi Ewald  Thomas Kalettka  Luc Brendonck 《Limnologica》2012,42(4):251-253

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