Unstable climates: Exploring the statistical and social constructions of ‘normal’ climate     

Mike Hulme  Suraje Dessai  Irene Lorenzoni  Donald R. Nelson 《Geoforum》2009,40(2):197-206

The idea of climate has both statistical and social foundations. Both of these dimensions of climate change over time: climate, as defined by meteorological statistics, changes for both natural and anthropogenic reasons; and our expectations of future climate also change, as cultures, societies and knowledge evolves. This paper explores the interactions between these different expressions of climate change by focusing on the idea of ‘normal’ climates defined by statistics. We show how this idea came into being in meteorological circles and then review how this idea of climatic normality gets entangled with cultural and psychological processes. Using data from historical and predicted climates in the UK, we illustrate the significance of choosing different baseline ‘normals’ for retrospective and prospective interpretations of climate change. Since the choice of these statistical ‘normals’ reflects cultural, political and psychological preferences and practices as much as scientific ones, we argue that expectations of the climatic future are influenced by social as well as statistical norms. Seeing climate as co-constructed between the psycho-cultural constraints of society and the physical constraints of the material world offers a different way of thinking about the instabilities of climate and the ways we adapt to them.  相似文献   

Distribution of icy particles across Enceladus' surface as derived from Cassini-VIMS measurements     

R. Jaumann  K. Stephan  R.N. Clark  R.H. Brown  S.F. Newman  G. Filacchione  D.P. Cruikshank  C.A. Hibbitts  R.M. Nelson  C. Sotin 《Icarus》2008,193(2):407-419

The surface of Enceladus consists almost completely of water ice. As the band depths of water ice absorptions are sensitive to the size of particles, absorptions can be used to map variations of icy particles across the surface. The Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) observed Enceladus with a high spatial resolution during three Cassini flybys in 2005 (orbits EN 003, EN 004 and EN 011). Based on these data we measured the band depths of water ice absorptions at 1.04, 1.25, 1.5, and 2 μm. These band depths were compared to water ice models that represent theoretically calculated reflectance spectra for a range of particle diameters between 2 μm and 1 mm. The agreement between the experimental (VIMS) and model values supports the assumption that pure water ice characterizes the surface of Enceladus and therefore that variations in band depth correspond to variations in water ice particle diameters. Our measurements show that the particle diameter of water ice increases toward younger tectonically altered surface units with the largest particles exposed in relatively “fresh” surface material. The smallest particles were generally found in old densely cratered terrains. The largest particles (∼0.2 mm) are concentrated in the so called “tiger stripes” at the south pole. In general, the particle diameters are strongly correlated with geologic features and surface ages, indicating a stratigraphic evolution of the surface that is caused by cryovolcanic resurfacing and impact gardening.  相似文献   

Perturbation theory and excursion set estimates of the probability distribution function of dark matter, and a method for reconstructing the initial distribution function     

Tsz Yan Lam  Ravi K. Sheth 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,386(1):407-415

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Pilot study experiments sourcing quartzite,Gunnison Basin,Colorado     

Bonnie L. Pitblado  Carol Dehler  Hector Neff  Stephen T. Nelson 《Geoarchaeology》2008,23(6):742-778

This paper reports the results of pilot‐study efforts to develop methods to profile quartzite, a rock type to which geochemical and other sourcing techniques have only rarely been applied. The long‐term goal of the research is to fingerprint sources of quartzite in the Gunnison Basin, southwest Colorado, used by Paleoindian people ca. 11,500–8,000 years ago to make stone tools. Success would facilitate reconstruction of Paleoindian mobility in the Southern Rocky Mountains and potentially anywhere prehistoric people used quartzite. The goals of this paper are more modest: to demonstrate that a small‐scale exploration of sourcing techniques suggests reason for optimism that quartzites may be amenable to source discrimination. For the same twenty Gunnison Basin quartzite samples, this study evaluated petrography, ultraviolet fluorescence (UVF), wavelength dispersive X‐ray fluorescence (WD‐XRF), instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry—both acid‐digestion (AD‐ICP‐MS) and laser ablation (LA‐ICP‐MS)—as means to differentiate among the specimens and the sources they represent. Although more testing is needed to verify and refine our results, the study suggests there is potential for petrography, INAA, and both versions of ICP‐MS to discriminate among quartzites from different source localities in the Gunnison Basin. The greatest potential for discriminating among different sources of quartzite in the Gunnison Basin may lie in a methodology combining petrographic analysis and LA‐ICPMS. Future testing is required to evaluate this two‐fold approach. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

PERMAFROST ZONATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE: RESULTS FROM TRANSIENT GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

OLEG A. Anisimov  FREDERICK E. Nelson 《Climatic change》1997,35(2):241-258

Numerous studies have demonstrated that both global patterns and local details of permafrost distribution are highly responsive to climatic fluctuations, at several temporal and spatial scales. Permafrost currently underlies about one fourth of the land area of the northern hemisphere, and many qualitative predictions have been made for a severe reduction of this area in response to global warming. A map of permafrost distribution compiled using the frost index, a dimensionless number that can be related to the zonal arrangement of permafrost, shows very good correspondence with a recently published empirical map. The frost index was used in conjunction with three transient general circulation models to compile maps of permafrost zonation for conditions in the mid-21st century. Although regional patterns and local details differ substantially between the three scenarios, all result in reductions in the area occupied by each permafrost zone. Localized expansions of the area underlain by permafrost are apparent from two of the scenarios. Reductions in the areal extent of equilibrium permafrost predicted from two of the three transient models are much less than those indicated by runs using 2 × CO models.  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic simulations of propagating warps and bending waves in accretion discs     

Richard P. Nelson  John C. B. Papaloizou 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,309(4):929-940

We present the results of a study of propagating warp or bending waves in accretion discs. Three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations were performed using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH), and the results are compared with calculations based on the linear theory of warped discs.
We examine the response of a gaseous disc to an initially imposed warping disturbance under a variety of physical conditions. We consider primarily the physical regime in which the dimensionless viscosity parameter α < H r , where H r is the disc aspect ratio, so that bending waves are expected to propagate. We also performed calculations for disc models in which α > H r , where the warps are expected to evolve diffusively. Small-amplitude (linear) perturbations are studied in both Keplerian and slightly non-Keplerian discs, and we find that the results of the SPH calculations can be reasonably well fitted by those of the linear theory. The main results of these calculations are: (i) the warp in Keplerian discs when α < H r propagates with little dispersion, and damps at a rate expected from estimates of the code viscosity; (ii) warps evolve diffusively when α > H r ; (iii) the slightly non-Keplerian discs lead to a substantially more dispersive behaviour of the warps, which damp at a similar rate to the Keplerian case, when α < H r .
Initially imposed higher amplitude, non-linear warping disturbances were studied in Keplerian discs. The results indicate that non-linear warps can lead to the formation of shocks, and that the evolution of the warp becomes less wave-like and more diffusive in character.
This work is relevant to the study of the warped accretion discs that may occur around Kerr black holes or in misaligned binary systems, and is mainly concerned with discs in which α < H r . The results indicate that SPH can model the hydrodynamics of warped discs, even when using rather modest numbers of particles.  相似文献   

Development of a Capillary Zone Electrophoretic Method for the Rapid Separation and Detection of Hepatotoxic Microcystins   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Paul C. H. Li  Shen Hu  Paul K. S. Lam 《Marine pollution bulletin》1999,39(1-12):250-254

Analysis of trace amounts of various hepatotoxic microcystins in marine and freshwater samples is very important since these toxins, especially microcystin-LR, have been demonstrated to have tumour-promoting activity. In this study, instead of measuring the total amount of microcystins, we developed a capillary zone electrophoretic method for the separation and detection of individual toxin standards. No additives were used for enhancement of resolution. This technique is characterized by a high separation efficiency, short analysis time and small sample volume. In order to improve the detection sensitivity, a laser-induced fluorescence detector was used, and the labelling of microcystins was accomplished through a two-step procedure. First, the microcystin standards were converted into cysteine conjugates, followed by derivatization with Fluorescein 5-Isothiocyanate (FITC). After derivatization, the FITC-labelled microcystins were directly injected, separated and detected in 8 min. This method was shown to be a promising technique for sensitive and rapid analysis of individual microcystin toxins.  相似文献   

Lead isotopes in sulfides from the Stillwater Complex, Montana: evidence for subsolidus remobilization     

I. S. McCallum  M. W. Thurber  H. E. O'Brien  B. K. Nelson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1999,137(3):206-219

Isotopic ratios of Pb in sulfide minerals (primarily pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, and pentlandite) from a suite of samples from the platiniferous J-M Reef of the Stillwater Complex were measured to elucidate the temporal and genetic relationship between sulfides and host silicate minerals. Results indicate that sulfides and coexisting plagioclases are generally not in isotopic equilibrium, that both sulfides and feldspars record highly radiogenic initial ratios at 2.7 Ga, and that a component of “post-emplacement” radiogenic Pb has mixed with common Pb in the sulfides. A model involving introduction of radiogenic Pb carried by fluids derived from sources external to the complex is favored. Analyses of the lead isotopic composition of sulfides in veins which cut the complex indicate that a significant fraction of the radiogenic lead which was added to the sulfides was externally derived during an extensive hydrothermal episode, associated with Proterozoic regional metamorphism around 1.7 Ga. The possibility that some fractions of the radiogenic Pb may have been derived from primary minerals altered during the low-grade metamorphism cannot be discounted. The amount of radiogenic lead added is variable and in some cases negligible. There is a good correlation between the lead isotope composition and the nature of the secondary mineral assemblage. Sulfides and plagioclases in samples that show little or no alteration of the primary minerals are generally in isotopic equilibrium and preserve isotope ratios consistent with magmatic crystallization at 2.7 Ga. Samples with the most radiogenic sulfides contain abundant secondary minerals (serpentine, talc, actinolite, chlorite and zoisite) associated with greenschist facies metamorphism. Some of the radiogenic Pb in the sulfides can be removed by progressive stepwise leaching. However, in most samples recrystallization of sulfides during metamorphism has mixed common Pb and radiogenic Pb throughout the crystal structure such that, in these samples, stepwise leaching does not recover initial Pb isotopic ratios. Plagioclases are much more resistant to low temperature recrystallization and in almost all cases, stepwise leaching reveals the initial lead isotopic composition. The reactivity of sulfides over a wide temperature range enhances their utility in understanding not only the processes involved in their formation at the time of magmatic emplacement but also postmagmatic processes which were important in the redistribution and enrichment of platinum group elements (PGE) within the ore zone. Received: 30 December 1998 / Accepted: 16 June 1999  相似文献   

The ductility reduction factor in the seismic design of buildings     

Nelson Lam  John Wilson  Graham Hutchinson 《地震工程与结构动力学》1998,27(7):749-769

This paper presents new trends in the relationship between the ductility reduction factor and the ductility demand in the seismic design of buildings. A total of 4860 inelastic time-history analyses were carried out to study this relationship using 60 single-degree-of-freedom models excited by an ensemble of 81 earthquake accelerogram records from around the world. The asymmetrical distribution of the results highlighted the inaccuracies associated with assuming a normal distribution simply described by the mean and standard deviation to represent the data. A probability of exceedence approach has been used based on counting the number of occurrences the ductility demand exceeds a specified level. The ductility reduction factors developed in this study are consistent with other studies in the long-period range but are different in the short-period range. The ductility reduction factor for very short period buildings of limited ductility has been found to be greater than previously predicted. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Potential of legacy 2D seismic data for deep targeting and structural imaging at the Neves–Corvo massive sulphide-bearing deposit,Portugal     

George A. Donoso  Alireza Malehmir  Nelson Pacheco  Vitor Araujo  Matthew Penney  Joao Carvalho  Bill Spicer  Steve Beach 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(1):44-61

Seismic methods are becoming an established choice for deep mineral exploration after being extensively tested and employed for the past two decades. To investigate whether the early European mineral-exploration datasets had potential for seismic imaging that was overlooked, we recovered a low-fold legacy seismic dataset from the Neves–Corvo mine site in the Iberian Pyrite Belt in southern Portugal. This dataset comprises six 4–6 km long profiles acquired in 1996 for deep targeting. Using today's industry-scale processing algorithms, the world-class, ca. 150 Mt, Lombador massive sulphide and other smaller deposits were better imaged. Additionally, we also reveal a number of shallow but steeply dipping reflections that were absent in the original processing results. This study highlights that legacy seismic data are valuable and should be revisited regularly to take advantage of new processing algorithms and the experiences gained from processing such data in hard-rock environments elsewhere. Remembering that an initial processing job in hard rock should always aim to first obtain an overall image of the subsurface and make reflections visible, and then subsequent goals of the workflow could be set to, for example understanding relative amplitude ratios. The imaging of the known mineralization implies that this survey could likely have been among one of the pioneer studies in the world that demonstrated the capability of directly imaging massive sulphide deposits using the seismic method.  相似文献