The role and disposition of military forces in the Russian Federation     

Nicholas F. Bradshaw 《GeoJournal》1994,34(2):155-166

The article discusses Russian motivation in the context of the restructuring of the military industrial complex and the new political districts of the former Soviet Union. It draws on Allison (1993) to describe the new military district structure, and considers what the combination of the boundaries of these areas indicates of Russian intentions for the future development of their forces and their relationship with the West. It goes on to consider the role of the media and of western political leaders in achieving images suitable for the identification of a peace dividend, and the repercussions of the situation as regards the future security of bi-polar relationships.  相似文献   

Summary statistics in geochemistry: A study of the performance of robust estimates     

Nicholas M. S. Rock 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(3):243-275

Numerical data summaries in many geochemical papers rely on arithmetic means, with or without standard deviations. Yet the mean is the worst average (estimate of location) for those extremely common geochemical data sets which are non-normally distributed or include outliers. The widely used geometric mean, although allowing for skewed distributions, is equally susceptible to outliers. The superior performance of 19 robust estimates of location (simple median, plus various combined, adaptive, trimmed, and skipped,L, M, andW estimates) is illustrated using real geochemical data sets varying in sources of error (pure analytical error to multicomponent geological variability), modality (unimodal to polymodal), size (20 to >2000 data values), and continuity (continuous to truncated in either or both tails). The arithmetic mean tends to overestimate location of many geochemical data sets because of positive skew and large outliers; robust estimates yield consistent smaller averages, although some (e.g., Hampel's and Andrew's) do perform better than others (e.g., Shorth mean, dominant cluster mode). Recommended values for international standard rocks, and for such important geochemical concepts as average chondrite, can be reproduced far more simply via robust estimation on complete interlaboratory data sets than via the rather complicated and subjective methods (e.g., laboratory ratings) so far used in the literature. Robust estimates also seem generally less affected by truncation than the mean; for example, if values below machine detection limits are alternatively treated as missing values or as real values of zero, similar averages are obtained. The standard (and mean) deviations yield consistently larger values of scale for many geochemical data sets than the hinge width (interquartile range) or median absolute deviation from the median. Therefore, summaries of geochemical data should always include at least the simple median and hinge width, to complement the often misleading mean and standard deviation.  相似文献   

The Wildness Continuum     

Nicholas Helburn 《The Professional geographer》1977,29(4):333-337

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HIGH SCHOOL GEOGRAPHY PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT     

Nicholas Helburn 《The Professional geographer》1966,18(2):100-100

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Hydrologic history of the Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers based upon a refined specific‐gauge approach     

Abebe A. Jemberie  Nicholas Pinter  Jonathan W. F. Remo 《水文研究》2008,22(22):4436-4447

A refined specific‐gauge approach was developed to quantify changes over time in hydrological response on 3260 km of the Mississippi River system using long‐term data observed at 67 hydrologic measurement stations. Of these stations, 49 were unrated (stage‐only) stations, for which over 2 000 000 ‘synthetic discharges’ were generated based on measured discharge values at nearby rated stations. The addition of these synthetic discharges nearly tripled the number of stations in the study area for which specific‐gauge analysis could be performed. In order to maintain spatial homogeneity across such a broad study area, discharges were normalized to multiples of mean daily flow (MDF). Specific‐gauge analysis calculates stage changes over time for invariant discharge conditions. Two discharges were analysed: low‐flow and flood conditions at each station. In order to avoid the large errors associated with extrapolation of annual rating curves, a new ‘enhanced interpolation’ technique was developed that calculates continuous specific‐stage time series, even for rare discharges. Thus enhanced, specific‐gauge analysis is a useful reconnaissance tool for detecting geomorphic and hydrologic trends over time. Results show that on the Middle Mississippi River and Lower Missouri River, flood stages increased at all stations in spite of widespread incision of the river bed. On the Lower Mississippi River, both low‐flow and flood stages decreased, mainly the result of artificial meander cutoffs in the late 1920s and 1930s, except downstream of Natchez, MS, where net aggradation was observed. On the Upper Mississippi River, the specific‐gauge trends were dominated by emplacement of navigational dams and impoundment of slackwater pools. On all four river reaches, these results document hydrologic responses to the different engineering toolkits used on the different portions of the Mississippi River system during the past 75–150 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Late Holocene sea-surface temperature and precipitation variability in northern Patagonia, Chile (Jacaf Fjord, 44°S)     

Julio Sepúlveda  Silvio Pantoja  Konrad A. Hughen  Sbastien Bertrand  Dante Figueroa  Tania Len  Nicholas J. Drenzek  Carina Lange 《Quaternary Research》2009,72(3):400-409

A high-resolution multi-proxy study including the elemental and isotopic composition of bulk organic matter, land plant-derived biomarkers, and alkenone-based sea-surface temperature (SST) from a marine sedimentary record obtained from the Jacaf Fjord in northern Chilean Patagonia (44°20′S) provided a detailed reconstruction of continental runoff, precipitation, and summer SST spanning the last 1750 yr. We observed two different regimes of climate variability in our record: a relatively dry/warm period before 900 cal yr BP (lower runoff and average SST 1°C warmer than present day) and a wet/cold period after 750 cal yr BP (higher runoff and average SST 1°C colder than present day). Relatively colder SSTs were found during 750–600 and 450–250 cal yr BP, where the latter period roughly corresponds to the interval defined for the Little Ice Age (LIA). Similar climatic swings have been observed previously in continental and marine archives of the last two millennia from central and southern Chile, suggesting a strong latitudinal sensitivity to changes in the Southern Westerly Winds, the main source of precipitation in southern Chile, and validating the regional nature of the LIA. Our results reveal the importance of the Chilean fjord system for recording climate changes of regional and global significance.  相似文献   

The importance of distribution types on finite element analyses of foundation settlement     

Rafael Jimenez  Nicholas Sitar 《Computers and Geotechnics》2009

We investigate the effects of using different types of statistical distributions (lognormal, gamma, and beta) to characterize the variability of Young’s modulus of soils in random finite element analyses of shallow foundation settlement. We use a two-dimensional linear elastic, plane-strain, finite element model with a rigid footing founded on elastic soil. Poisson’s ratio of the soil is considered constant, and Young’s modulus is characterized using random fields with extreme values of the scale of fluctuation. We perform an extensive sensitivity analysis to compare the distributions of computed settlements when different types of statistical distributions of Young’s modulus, different coefficients of variation of Young’s modulus, and different scales of fluctuation of the random field of Young’s modulus are considered. A large number of realizations are employed in the Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the influence of the tails of the statistical distributions under study. Results indicate the type of distribution considered for characterization of the random field of Young’s modulus can have a significant impact on computed settlement results. In particular, considering different types of distributions of Young’s modulus can lead to more than 600% differences on computed mean settlements for cases with high coefficient of variation and large scale of fluctuation of Young’s modulus. The effect of considering different types of distributions is reduced, but not completely eliminated, for smaller coefficients of variation of Young’s modulus (because the differences between distributions decrease) and for small values of the scale of fluctuation of Young’s modulus (because of an identified “averaging effect”).  相似文献   

龙门山地震带的地质背景与汶川地震的地表破裂   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

李勇  黄润秋  周荣军  Alexander  L.  DENSMORE  Michael  A.  ELLIS  闫亮  董顺利  Nicholas  RICHARDSON  张毅  何玉林  陈浩  乔宝成  马博琳 《工程地质学报》2009,17(1):3-18

龙门山位于青藏高原与扬子地台之间, 系由一系列大致平行的叠瓦状冲断带构成, 自西向东发育汶川茂汶断裂、映秀北川断裂和彭县灌县断裂,并将龙门山划分为3个构造地层带,分别为变形变质构造地层带（主要由志留系泥盆系浅变质岩和前寒武系杂岩构成）、变形变位构造地层带（主要由上古生界三叠系沉积岩构成）、变形构造地层带（主要由侏罗系至第三系红层和第四纪松散堆积构成）。 龙门山断裂带属地震危险区,3条主干断裂皆具备发生7级左右地震的能力,其中映秀北川断裂是引发地震的最主要断层,据对彭县灌县断裂青石坪探槽场地的研究结果表明,在该断裂带上最晚的一次强震发生在93040a.B.P.左右,据此,可以初步判定,这3条主干断裂的单条断裂上的强震复发间隔至少应在1000a左右,表明龙门山构造带及其内部断裂属于地震活动频度低但具有发生超强地震的潜在危险的特殊断裂,以逆冲-右行走滑为其主要运动方式。 汶川地震属于逆冲走滑型的地震,地表破裂分布于映秀北川断裂带和彭县灌县断裂带上。根据近南北向的断裂（小鱼洞断层、擂鼓断层和邓家坝断层）和地表断距可将映秀北川断层的地表破裂带划分为两个高值区和两个低值区,两个高值区分别位于南段的映秀-虹口一带和位于中北段的擂鼓北川县城邓家坝一带;两个低值区分别位于中南段的白水河茶坪一带和北段的北川黄家坝至平武石坎子一带,两个高值区分别与小鱼洞断层和擂鼓断层相关。根据保存于破裂面上的擦痕,可将该地震破裂过程划分为两个阶段,早期为逆冲作用,晚期为斜向走滑作用,其与地壳增厚构造模式和侧向挤出摸式在青藏高原东缘的推论具有不吻合性。鉴于龙门山的表层运动速率与深部构造运动速率具有不一致性,初步探讨了龙门山地区的地表过程与下地壳流之间的地质动力模型,认为下地壳物质在龙门山近垂向挤出和垂向运动,从而造成导致龙门山向东的逆冲运动、龙门山构造带抬升和汶川特大地震。在此基础上,根据汶川地震所引发的地质灾害,对地震灾后重建提出了的几点建议。  相似文献   

Spectral analysis and design approach for high force‐to‐volume extrusion damper‐based structural energy dissipation     

Geoffrey W. Rodgers  John B. Mander  J. Geoffrey Chase  Rajesh P. Dhakal  Nicholas C. Leach  Caleb S. Denmead 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(2):207-223

High force‐to‐volume extrusion damping devices can offer significant energy dissipation directly in structural connections and significantly reduce seismic response. Realistic force levels up to 400 kN have been obtained experimentally validating this overall concept. This paper develops spectral‐based design equations for their application. Response spectra analysis for multiple, probabilistically scaled earthquake suites are used to delineate the response reductions due to added extrusion damping. Representative statistics and damping reduction factors are utilized to characterize the modified response in a form suitable for current performance‐based design methods. Multiple equation regression analysis is used to characterize reduction factors in the constant acceleration, constant velocity, and constant displacement regions of the response spectra. With peak device forces of 10% of structural weight, peak damping reduction factors in the constant displacement region of the spectra are approximately 6.5 ×, 4.0 ×, and 2.8 × for the low, medium, and high suites, respectively. At T = 1 s, these values are approximately 3.6 ×, 1.8 ×, and 1.4 ×, respectively. The maximum systematic bias introduced by using empirical equations to approximate damping reduction factors in design analyses is within the range of +10 to ?20%. The seismic demand spectrum approach is shown to be conservative across a majority of the spectrum, except for large added damping between T = 0.8 and 3.5 s, where it slightly underestimates the demand up to a maximum of approximately 10%. Overall, the analysis shows that these devices have significant potential to reduce seismic response and damage at validated prototype device force levels. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Holocene climate and glacier variability at Hallet and Greyling Lakes,Chugach Mountains,south-central Alaska   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Nicholas P. McKay  Darrell S. Kaufman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(1):143-159

Evidence from lake sediments and glacier forefields from two hydrologically isolated lake basins is used to reconstruct Holocene glacier and climate history at Hallet and Greyling Lakes in the central Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. Glacial landform mapping, lichenometry, and equilibrium-line altitude reconstructions, along with changes in sedimentary biogenic-silica content, bulk density, and grain-size distribution indicate a dynamic history of Holocene climate variability. The evidence suggests a warm early Holocene from 10 to 6 ka, followed by the onset of Neoglaciation in the two drainage basins, beginning between 4.5 and 4.0 ka. During the past 2 ka, the glacial landforms and lacustrine sediments from the two valleys record a remarkably similar history of glaciation, with two primary advances, one during the first millennium AD, from ~500 to 800 AD, and the second during the Little Ice Age (LIA) from ~1400 to 1900 AD. During the LIA, the reconstructed equilibrium-line altitude in the region was no more than 83 ± 44 m (n = 21) lower than the modern, which is based on the extent of glaciers during 1978. Differences between the summer temperature inferred from the biogenic-silica content and the evidence for glacial advances and retreats suggest a period of increased winter precipitation from 1300 to 1500 AD, and reduced winter precipitation from 1800 to 1900 AD, likely associated with variability in the strength of the Aleutian Low.

Darrell S. KaufmanEmail:

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