Public perception of cold weather events as evidence for and against climate change   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Stuart Bryce Capstick  Nicholas Frank Pidgeon 《Climatic change》2014,122(4):695-708

It has been argued that public doubts about climate change have been exacerbated by cold weather events seen as a form of disconfirming evidence for anticipated ‘warming’. Although a link between perceptions of climate and weather is well-established, such assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here we show, using nationally representative data, that directly following a period of severe cold weather in the UK, three times as many people saw these events as pointing towards the reality of climate change, than as disconfirming it. This we argue was a consequence of these cold winters being incorporated into a conceptualisation of extreme or ‘unnatural’ weather resulting from climate change. We also show that the way in which people interpret cold weather is associated with levels of pre-existing scepticism about climate change, which is in turn related to more general worldviews. Drawing attention to ‘extreme’ weather as a consequence of climate change can be a useful communication device, however this is problematic in the case of seasonal cold.  相似文献   

The Relationship between Community and Individual Measures of Wellbeing: comparisons by remoteness for Indigenous Australians     

Nicholas Biddle 《The Australian geographer》2014,45(1):53-69

For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians, the wellbeing of the community in which one lives and/or has an ongoing attachment to is an important aspect of individual health and wellbeing. In non-Indigenous policy discourse, the main way to summarise community-level wellbeing is through indices of socioeconomic outcomes that can be used to rank regions or areas within regions. While these have been produced for the Indigenous population, they only capture one particular aspect of community wellbeing. The analysis presented in this paper extends our knowledge of place-based community wellbeing by looking at the presence or absence of particular facilities, barriers to accessing services, and neighbourhood or community problems. Indigenous Australians in remote areas were less likely to report the presence of a number of facilities and more likely to report barriers to accessing government services. However, there were no consistent differences in the reporting of neighbourhood and community problems—some types of problems had a higher incidence in non-remote areas (e.g. theft and dangerous or noisy driving), whilst other problems were higher in remote areas (alcohol, illegal drugs and violence). Indices of these variables were also found to be associated with individual emotional wellbeing, providing prima facie evidence of the link between community and individual measures.  相似文献   

Dredging displaces bottlenose dolphins from an urbanised foraging patch     

Enrico Pirotta  Barbara Eva Laesser  Andrea Hardaker  Nicholas Riddoch  Marianne Marcoux  David Lusseau 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

The exponential growth of the human population and its increasing industrial development often involve large scale modifications of the environment. In the marine context, coastal urbanisation and harbour expansion to accommodate the rising levels of shipping and offshore energy exploitation require dredging to modify the shoreline and sea floor. While the consequences of dredging on invertebrates and fish are relatively well documented, no study has robustly tested the effects on large marine vertebrates. We monitored the attendance of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) to a recently established urbanised foraging patch, Aberdeen harbour (Scotland), and modelled the effect of dredging operations on site usage. We found that higher intensities of dredging caused the dolphins to spend less time in the harbour, despite high baseline levels of disturbance and the importance of the area as a foraging patch.  相似文献   

Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies     

Nicholas A. Som  Nicolas P. Zégre  Lisa M. Ganio  Arne E. Skaugset 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):134-143

Abstract

Hydrological data may be temporally autocorrelated requiring autoregressive process parameters to be estimated. Current statistical methods for hydrological change detection in paired watershed studies rely on prediction intervals, but the current form of prediction intervals does not include all appropriate sources of variation. Corrected prediction intervals for the analysis of paired watershed study data that include variation associated with covariance and linear model parameter estimation are presented. We provide an example of their application to data from the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study located in the western Cascade foothills of Southern Oregon, USA. Research implications of using the correct prediction limits and incorporating the estimation uncertainty of autoregressive process parameters are discussed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Som, N.A., Zégre, N.P., Ganio, L.M. and Skaugset, A.E., 2012. Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 134–143.  相似文献   

New <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar laser single-grain ages of muscovites from mylonitic schists in the Rodna Mountains,Eastern Carpathians,Romania: correlations with microstructure   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Nicholas Culshaw  Emilia Mosonyi  Peter Reynolds 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(1):291-306

The Rodna Mountains afford the most internal structural window into the crystalline units of the Eastern Carpathians in Romania. The Rodna Mountains consist of Variscan metamorphic nappes that were restacked in the Alpine phase of Carpathian development forming the Subbucovinian and Infrabucovinian nappes. In order to evaluate age of deformation, ten samples were taken from the zone of greenschist facies mylonitic schist that marks the Alpine tectonic boundary between the Subbucovinian and Infrabucovinian nappes and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar laser single-grain ages determined for schistosity-forming muscovite. Microstructural assessment of quartz and muscovite distinguished two deformation events. Single-grain ages from the microstructurally most strongly reworked samples (four samples) give a tight clustering of ages at ca. 95 Ma. The least reworked schists have a broader clustering of ages spanning ca. 200–280 Ma with a late Permian peak and some samples showing outlier ages in the range 200–100 Ma. The relative development of the outliers, which correlates with evidence for increased microstructural reworking, is interpreted to mark progressive isotopic resetting. The ca. 95 Ma ages for the most reworked schists are estimates for the age of the Alpine nappe stacking. The ca. 200–280 Ma ages are similar to those of magmatism, metamorphism, and sedimentation thought to mark post-Variscan-pre-Alpine rifting and ocean basin formation in parts of the Alps and may be the thermal imprint of a related event in the Eastern Carpathians.  相似文献   

Analytical hydrologic models and the design of policy instruments for groundwater-quality management     

Yusuke Kuwayama  Nicholas Brozovi? 《Hydrogeology Journal》2012,20(5):957-972

This paper explores how analytical hydrologic models can inform the effective design and choice of policy instruments to manage groundwater quality by coupling a social-planner’s problem of optimal groundwater-quality management with analytical solutions from the hydrology literature. A theoretical analysis is performed in order to characterize the properties of an optimal emissions policy. The model is then applied in a numerical analysis of groundwater contamination by chloride from highway deicers, demonstrating the relevance of the theoretical results to practical management settings. This analytical approach can help determine which policy instruments are likely to be effective in controlling groundwater pollution, especially if costly numerical groundwater models are not available for the aquifer in question. Unlike previous economic studies of groundwater contamination, this approach defines optimal emissions policies as a function of geophysical parameters employed by hydrologists such as distance between source and sink, groundwater velocity, and aquifer dispersivity. The theoretical section of this paper also demonstrates that the relationship between geophysical parameters and optimal emissions levels may be ambiguous.  相似文献   

Appropriate Uses and Practical Limitations of 2D Numerical Analysis of Tunnels and Tunnel Support Response   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

Nicholas Vlachopoulos  Mark S. Diederichs 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2014,32(2):469-488

In spite of the gradual development of three-dimensional analysis packages utilizing finite element models or finite difference algorithms for stress–strain calculations, two-dimensional (2D) analysis is still used as the primary engineering tool for practical analysis of tunnel behavior and tunnel support performance for design—particularly at the preliminary stage of a project. The applicability of 2D finite element analysis or analytical convergence confinement solutions to staged support installation depend on the application of an assumed or validated longitudinal displacement profile. Convergence in commonly applied 2D staged models is controlled by boundary displacement or internal pressure relaxation. While there have been developments to improve this methodology, this often assumes independence between the ground reaction curve and the support resistance, independence between the longitudinal displacement profile to support application, and the assumption that non-isotropic stresses and non-circular geometries can be handled in the same way as circular tunnels in isotropic conditions. This paper examines the validity of these assumptions and the error inherent in these extensions to 2D tunnel analysis. Anisotropic stresses and lagged (staged) excavation present a particular problem. Practical solutions are proposed for support longitudinal displacement LDPs in simplified conditions.  相似文献   

Fred’s Flow (Canada) and Murphy Well (Australia): thick komatiitic lava flows with contrasting compositions,emplacement mechanisms and water contents     

Coralie?SiégelEmail author  Nicholas?Arndt  Stephen?Barnes  Anne-Laure?Henriot  Pierre?Haenecour  Vinciane?Debaille  Nadine?Mattielli 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(6):1084

Two Archaean komatiitic flows, Fred’s Flow in Canada and the Murphy Well Flow in Australia, have similar thicknesses (120 and 160 m) but very different compositions and internal structures. Their contrasting differentiation profiles are keys to determine the cooling and crystallization mechanisms that operated during the eruption of Archaean ultramafic lavas. Fred’s Flow is the type example of a thick komatiitic basalt flow. It is strongly differentiated and consists of a succession of layers with contrasting textures and compositions. The layering is readily explained by the accumulation of olivine and pyroxene in a lower cumulate layer and by evolution of the liquid composition during downward growth of spinifex-textured rocks within the upper crust. The magmas that erupted to form Fred’s Flow had variable compositions, ranging from 12 to 20 wt% MgO, and phenocryst contents from 0 to 20 vol%. The flow was emplaced by two pulses. A first ~20-m-thick pulse was followed by another more voluminous but less magnesian pulse that inflated the flow to its present 120 m thickness. Following the second pulse, the flow crystallized in a closed system and differentiated into cumulates containing 30–38 wt% MgO and a residual gabbroic layer with only 6 wt% MgO. The Murphy Well Flow, in contrast, has a remarkably uniform composition throughout. It comprises a 20-m-thick upper layer of fine-grained dendritic olivine and 2–5 vol% amygdales, a 110–120 m intermediate layer of olivine porphyry and a 20–30 m basal layer of olivine orthocumulate. Throughout the flow, MgO contents vary little, from only 30 to 33 wt%, except for the slightly more magnesian basal layer (38–40 wt%). The uniform composition of the flow and dendritic olivine habits in the upper 20 m point to rapid cooling of a highly magnesian liquid with a composition like that of the bulk of the flow. Under equilibrium conditions, this liquid should have crystallized olivine with the composition Fo94.9, but the most magnesian composition measured by electron microprobe in samples from the flow is Fo92.9. To explain these features, we propose that the parental liquid contained around 32 wt% MgO and 3 wt% H₂O. This liquid degassed during the eruption, creating a supercooled liquid that solidified quickly and crystallized olivine with non-equilibrium textures and compositions.  相似文献   

Fortnightly Tidal Modulations Affect Net Community Production in a Mesotidal Estuary     

Nicholas J. Nidzieko  Joseph A. Needoba  Stephen G. Monismith  Kenneth S. Johnson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(1):91-110

Optical in situ chemical sensors enable sampling intervals and durations that rival acoustic techniques used for measuring currents. Coupling these high-frequency biogeochemical and physical measurements in estuaries to address ecosystem-scale questions, however, is still comparatively novel. This study investigated how tides affect ecosystem metabolism in a mesotidal estuary in central California (Elkhorn Slough). Dissolved oxygen measurements were used to estimate the terms in a control volume budget for a tidal creek/marsh complex at tidal timescales over several weeks. Respiration rates were 1.6 to 7.3 g O₂ m^?2 day^?1; net community production approached 20 g O₂ m^?2 day^?1. We found that aquatic NCP integrated throughout the creek complex varied significantly over the spring-neap cycle. The intertidal contribution to aquatic metabolism was net heterotrophic during spring tides and generally in balance during neap tides because spring-tide marsh inundation was limited to nighttime, and therefore the marsh could not contribute any primary production to the water column. At the estuary scale, the fortnightly export of oxygen from the main channel to the intertidal was largely balanced by an advective flux up-estuary.  相似文献   

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: power-spectrum analysis of the final data set and cosmological implications     

Shaun Cole  Will J. Percival  John A. Peacock  Peder Norberg  Carlton M. Baugh  Carlos S. Frenk  Ivan Baldry  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Nicholas J. G. Cross  Gavin Dalton  Vincent R. Eke  Roberto De Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Karl Glazebrook  Carole Jackson  Adrian Jenkins  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Steve Maddox  Darren Madgwick  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,362(2):505-534

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