一种短期气候预测集成技术的应用研究     

吉廷艳  熊方  黄继用 《高原气象》2002,21(5):522-525

以递归正权综合决策方案为基础，结合实际情况，首先对多种预报方法进行筛选，选取预报效果较好并且较为稳定的几种方法参与集成，并将集成结果写成Micaps数据格式，最终以图形方式显示出来。评分结果表明：该集成方法对温度预报和灾害指数预报较权重平均集成法效果好；而对月雨量预报和季度雨量、温度预报则与权重平均方法相当；但是对季度雨量、温度预报来说，集成后预测精度有明显提高。同时，将集成结果通过Micaps工作平台以图形方式显示，不仅客观、定量，而且更一目了然．  相似文献   

太湖沉积物和湖岸土壤的污染元素特征及环境变化效应   总被引：38，自引：3，他引：38  

袁旭音  陈骏  季峻峰  陶于祥  王润华 《沉积学报》2002,20(3):427-434

太湖沉积物和湖岸土壤具有相似的物质组成，具有相同的物源，通过补给区的径流，营养元素和重金属元素随着土壤迁入湖泊，由于沉积物和土壤物化条件的不同，它们的营养元素和重金属含量有差异。土壤中氮，磷的总量和有效态均比沉积物中高，表明有一部分营养物质进入了水体；营养元素高的沉积物均靠近城镇，其原因为居民生活污水排放，土壤和沉积物中多数重金属元素尚未超过自然背景值，只有沉积物中Cd和Pb，土壤中的Cu,Cd和Hg超过，但沉积物中重金属元素大多比土壤中高，特别在北部沿岸沉积物中，重金属元素含量大大超过平均值，这种不正常的高值是由人类不合理的废水，废物敢排放引起。  相似文献   

云南元谋古猿动物群化石埋藏学   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张云翔  郑良等 《地质学报》2002,76(1):45-49

云南元谋小河-雷老一带含古猿新近系（上第三系）是一套紫红色含砾细砂-粉砂岩，夹有多层黄色砂砾石层。化石埋藏学研究及含化石层岩性特征、组合及沉积构造表明，该层以山前洪积堆积为主，并有发育的扇上河道沉积。通过30余个发掘地点化石野外埋藏资料及数千件化石标本的分析鉴定，化石埋藏类型有两种，埋藏Ⅰ型的化石数量稀少、保存完整，赋存在扇体细粒沉积物中；理藏Ⅱ型化石保存丰富但相当残破，赋存在粗粒沉积的扇上河道各个部位。化石埋藏类型与古气候、古生态有着密切的关系，化石埋藏特征表明该区自然环境分带已形成。元谋古猿动物群的生存时代是一个从森林向草原-灌丛环境过渡的动荡时期。  相似文献   

黄河下游壶穴的研究   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

钟建华  倪晋仁  沈晓华  王冠民  冀国盛  吴孔友  李理  洪梅  李勇  朱光有 《地质学报》2002,76(2):279-286

黄河下游(泺口以下)发育了大量的壶穴(Pothole),按成因可以分为6种:流水侵蚀、风蚀、圆砾铸模、冰压刻、冰融水滴蚀及泄气侵蚀。流水侵蚀形成的圆形Pothole规模不一,小者直径在十余厘米,深数厘米,大者直径达数米,深1 m余;风蚀形成的圆形Pothole规模一般比较小,直径多在二、三十厘米以下,深10 cm以下,大部分穴壁缓斜,状如盘碟;圆砾铸模形成的Pothole规模一般较小,直径多在一、二十厘米以下、穴壁陡倾,状如锅穴;冰融水滴蚀形成的Pothole形态复杂,规模不一,既有穴壁缓斜的盘碟状者,也有穴壁陡倾近乎直立的近圆柱状者,直径从不足1cm到三、四十厘米,其穴缘、穴壁和穴底常有次级构造;泄气侵蚀形成的Pothole更是十分复杂,平面形态可以圆形到近圆形甚至其他复杂形态,穴壁可以非常平缓,也可以陡倾,直径从数厘米到数十厘米,深数毫米到二、三十厘米,穴缘和穴壁也常有次级伴生构造,既可单独产出,也可成群产出,同时还可以多个密集产出,状如蜂巢,这一类Pothole的成因极为独特,主要与黄河断流河床捕获的空气泄漏有关。  相似文献   

Authors' Reply to Discussion by Stavros A. Anagnostopoulos of ‘Evaluation of combination rules for maximum response calculation in multicomponent seismic analysis’ Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn. 2001; 30(9) : 1379–1398     

Oscar A. Lpez  Anil K. Chopra  Julio J. Hernndez 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(9):1755-1756

  相似文献   

广西凭祥地区早二叠世的岩浆弧及其构造意义   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

吴根耀  季建清  何顺东  钟大赉 《矿物岩石》2002,22(3):61-65

广西凭祥地区有3种不同建造背景的二叠-三叠系，深水相的下二叠统呈一飞来峰推覆在台地型的石炭纪-早三叠世沉积和早-中三叠世浊积岩上，与前者共生的基性-超基性岩是古特提斯岩浆弧的记录，当时的被动大陆边缘在百色阳圩-田林八渡，说明洋壳向南西消减，早二叠世弧的原形成位置可能在越南境内，早-中三叠世的弧则已向北东迁移，在中越交界区形成图尔基式造山带。  相似文献   

Late Cenozoic transpressional ductile deformation north of the Nazca–South America–Antarctica triple junction     

Jos Cembrano  Alain Lavenu  Peter Reynolds  Gloria Arancibia  Gloria Lpez  Alejandro Sanhueza 《Tectonophysics》2002,354(3-4)

The southern Andes plate boundary zone records a protracted history of bulk transpressional deformation during the Cenozoic, which has been causally related to either oblique subduction or ridge collision. However, few structural and chronological studies of regional deformation are available to support one hypothesis or the other. We address along- and across-strike variations in the nature and timing of plate boundary deformation to better understand the Cenozoic tectonics of the southern Andes.Two east–west structural transects were mapped at Puyuhuapi and Aysén, immediately north of the Nazca–South America–Antarctica triple junction. At Puyuhuapi (44°S), north–south striking, high-angle contractional and strike-slip ductile shear zones developed from plutons coexist with moderately dipping dextral-oblique shear zones in the wallrocks. In Aysén (45–46°), top to the southwest, oblique thrusting predominates to the west of the Cenozoic magmatic arc, whereas dextral strike-slip shear zones develop within it.New ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data from mylonites and undeformed rocks from the two transects suggest that dextral strike-slip, oblique-slip and contractional deformation occurred at nearly the same time but within different structural domains along and across the orogen. Similar ages were obtained on both high strain pelitic schists with dextral strike-slip kinematics (4.4±0.3 Ma, laser on muscovite–biotite aggregates, Aysén transect, 45°S) and on mylonitic plutonic rocks with contractional deformation (3.8±0.2 to 4.2±0.2 Ma, fine-grained, recrystallized biotite, Puyuhuapi transect). Oblique-slip, dextral reverse kinematics of uncertain age is documented at the Canal Costa shear zone (45°S) and at the Queulat shear zone at 44°S. Published dates for the undeformed protholiths suggest both shear zones are likely Late Miocene or Pliocene, coeval with contractional and strike-slip shear zones farther north. Coeval strike-slip, oblique-slip and contractional deformation on ductile shear zones of the southern Andes suggest different degrees of along- and across-strike deformation partitioning of bulk transpressional deformation.The long-term dextral transpressional regime appears to be driven by oblique subduction. The short-term deformation is in turn controlled by ridge collision from 6 Ma to present day. This is indicated by most deformation ages and by a southward increase in the contractional component of deformation. Oblique-slip to contractional shear zones at both western and eastern margins of the Miocene belt of the Patagonian batholith define a large-scale pop-up structure by which deeper levels of the crust have been differentially exhumed since the Pliocene at a rate in excess of 1.7 mm/year.  相似文献   

Al hematites prepared by homogeneous precipitation of oxinates: material characterization and determination of the Morin transition     

G. M. da Costa  E. Van San  E. De Grave  R. E. Vandenberghe  V. Barrón  L. Datas 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2002,29(2):122-131

A novel method for synthesis of aluminium hematites, based upon the homogeneous precipitation of Fe and Al oxinates in various proportions, is presented. The precursor precipitates are heated in air at 700?°C. X-ray diffraction, thermal analyses, BET, FTIR, optical reflection analysis, TEM and Mössbauer spectroscopy at room temperature and 80?K of the resulting products indicate that single-phase hematites are formed with structural Al substitution of up to 10 at%. Interestingly, the particle size (>100?nm) is not substantially reduced by the Al content. Although it remains difficult to obtain a homogeneously distributed Al substitution in the final hematite, this processing line offers a unique opportunity to separate the effects of grain size and Al substitution on the Morin transition temperature (T _M) of Al hematite. From the comparison between the present hematites and a series of Al-substituted hematites with lepidocrocite as precursor, it could be shown that the effect on T _M, associated with a change of a factor 10 in grain size, is about 1/3 of the effect caused by a change of 10 in the degree of substitution. Finally, it is suggested that proper thermal treatments under different conditions of the same precursors are likely to produce spinel phases.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variation of the nekton and hyperbenthos from a temperate European estuary with regulated freshwater inflow     

Pilar Drake  Alberto M. Arias  Francisco Baldó  José A. Cuesta  Antonio Rodríguez  Alfonso Silva-Garcia  Ignacio Sobrino  Diego García-González  Carlos Fernández-Delgado 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(3):451-468

The aquatic macrofauna of the Guadalquivir estuary were sampled (1 mm mesh persiana net) at 5 sampling sites located along the entire (except the tidal freshwater region) estuarine gradient of salinity (outer 50 km). A total of 134 fish and macroinvertebrate species was collected but only 62 were considered common or regularly present in the estuary. Univariate measures of the community structure showed statistically significant differences among sampling sites: species richness, abundance, and biomass decreased in the upstream direction, being positively correlated with the salinity. Temporal differences of these three variables were also statistically significant. While a clear seasonal pattern (minimum densities in winter and maximum in spring-summer) was observed for abundance and biomass, no such pattern existed for the number of species. Mysids was the most dominant group throughout the estuary (96% to 99% of abundance; 49% to 85% of biomass), although fish biomass was also important at the outer estuary (36% to 38%). Multivariate analyses indicated highly significant spatial variation in the macrofaunal communities observed along the salinity gradient. These analyses suggest that the underlying structure was a continuum with more or less overlapping distributions of the species dependent on their ability to tolerate different physicochemical conditions. There were also significant temporal (intermonthly + interannual) variation of the estuarine community; the relative multivariate dispersion indicated that monthly variation was more considerable (relative multivariate dispersion >1) at the outer part of the estuary during the wet year (last 20 km) and was higher in the inner stations during the dry year (32 to 50 km from the river mouth). Since a clear negative exponential relationship was observed between the freshwater input (from a dam located 110 km upstream) and water salinity at all sampling stations, it is concluded that the human freshwater management is probably affecting the studied estuarine communities. While the higher seasonal (long-term) stability of the salinity gradient, due to the human control of the freshwater input, may facilitate the recruitment of marine species juveniles during the meteorologically unstable early-spring, the additional (short-term) salinity fluctuations during the warm period may negatively affect species that complete their lifecycle within the estuary.  相似文献   

An estuarine benthic index of biotic integrity for the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. II. Index development     

Roberto J. Llansó  Lisa C. Scott  Jeffrey L. Hyland  Daniel M. Dauer  David E. Russell  Frederick W. Kutz 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(6):1231-1242

A benthic index of biotic integrity was developed for use in estuaries of the mid-Atlantic region of the United States (Delaware Bay estuary through Albemarle-Pamlico Sound). The index was developed for the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Program (MAIA) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using procedures similar to those applied previously in Chesapeake Bay and southeastern estuaries, and was based on sampling in July through early October. Data from seven federal and state sampling programs were used to categorize sites as degraded or non-degraded based on dissolved oxygen, sediment contaminant, and sediment toxicity criteria. Various metrics of benthic community structure and function that distinguished between degraded and reference (non-degraded) sites were selected for each of five major habitat types defined by classification analysis of assemblages. Each metric was scored according to thresholds established on the distribution of values at reference sites, so that sites with low scoring metrics would be expected to show signs of degradation. For each habitat, metrics that correctly classified at least 50% of the degraded sites in the calibration data set were selected whenever possible to derive the index. The final index integrated the average score of the combination of metrics that performed best according to several criteria. Selected metrics included measures of productivity (abundance), diversity (number of taxa, Shannon-Wiener diversity, percent dominance), species composition and life history (percent abundance of pollution-indicative taxa, percent abundance of pollution-sensitive taxa, percent abundance of Bivalvia, Tanypodinae-Chironomidae abundance ratio), and trophic composition (percent abundance of deep-deposit feeders). The index correctly classified 82% of all sites in an independent data set. Classification efficiencies of sites were higher in the mesohaline and polyhaline habitats (81–92%) than in the oligohaline (71%) and the tidal freshwater (61%). Although application of the index to low salinity habitats should be done with caution, the MAIA index appeared to be quite reliable with a high likelihood of correctly identifying both degraded and non-degraded conditions. The index is expected to be of great utility in regional assessments as a tool for evaluating the integrity of benthic assemblages and tracking their condition over time.  相似文献