一种短期气候预测集成技术的应用研究     

吉廷艳  熊方  黄继用 《高原气象》2002,21(5):522-525

以递归正权综合决策方案为基础，结合实际情况，首先对多种预报方法进行筛选，选取预报效果较好并且较为稳定的几种方法参与集成，并将集成结果写成Micaps数据格式，最终以图形方式显示出来。评分结果表明：该集成方法对温度预报和灾害指数预报较权重平均集成法效果好；而对月雨量预报和季度雨量、温度预报则与权重平均方法相当；但是对季度雨量、温度预报来说，集成后预测精度有明显提高。同时，将集成结果通过Micaps工作平台以图形方式显示，不仅客观、定量，而且更一目了然．  相似文献   

Modelling Korean extreme rainfall using a Kappa distribution and maximum likelihood estimate   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

J.-S. Park  H.-S. Jung 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2002,72(1-2):55-64

Summary Attempts to use the 4-parameter Kappa distribution (K4D) with the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) on the summer extreme daily rainfall data at 61 gauging stations over South Korea have been made to obtain reliable quantile estimates for several return periods. A numerical algorithm for searching MLE of K4D by minimizing the negative log-likelihood function with penalty method has been described. The isopluvial maps of estimated design values corresponding to selected return periods have been presented. The highest return values are centered at sites in the south-western part of the Korean peninsula. The distribution of return values for annual maxima of 2-day precipitation (AMP2) is more similar to the climatological features of annual total precipitation of Korea than that of annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP1). Our results of return values delineate well the horizontal patterns of the heavy precipitation over the Korean peninsula. Received January 15, 2001 Revised October 8, 2001  相似文献   

太湖沉积物和湖岸土壤的污染元素特征及环境变化效应   总被引：38，自引：3，他引：38  

袁旭音  陈骏  季峻峰  陶于祥  王润华 《沉积学报》2002,20(3):427-434

太湖沉积物和湖岸土壤具有相似的物质组成，具有相同的物源，通过补给区的径流，营养元素和重金属元素随着土壤迁入湖泊，由于沉积物和土壤物化条件的不同，它们的营养元素和重金属含量有差异。土壤中氮，磷的总量和有效态均比沉积物中高，表明有一部分营养物质进入了水体；营养元素高的沉积物均靠近城镇，其原因为居民生活污水排放，土壤和沉积物中多数重金属元素尚未超过自然背景值，只有沉积物中Cd和Pb，土壤中的Cu,Cd和Hg超过，但沉积物中重金属元素大多比土壤中高，特别在北部沿岸沉积物中，重金属元素含量大大超过平均值，这种不正常的高值是由人类不合理的废水，废物敢排放引起。  相似文献   

云南元谋古猿动物群化石埋藏学   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张云翔  郑良等 《地质学报》2002,76(1):45-49

云南元谋小河-雷老一带含古猿新近系（上第三系）是一套紫红色含砾细砂-粉砂岩，夹有多层黄色砂砾石层。化石埋藏学研究及含化石层岩性特征、组合及沉积构造表明，该层以山前洪积堆积为主，并有发育的扇上河道沉积。通过30余个发掘地点化石野外埋藏资料及数千件化石标本的分析鉴定，化石埋藏类型有两种，埋藏Ⅰ型的化石数量稀少、保存完整，赋存在扇体细粒沉积物中；理藏Ⅱ型化石保存丰富但相当残破，赋存在粗粒沉积的扇上河道各个部位。化石埋藏类型与古气候、古生态有着密切的关系，化石埋藏特征表明该区自然环境分带已形成。元谋古猿动物群的生存时代是一个从森林向草原-灌丛环境过渡的动荡时期。  相似文献   

黄河下游壶穴的研究   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

钟建华  倪晋仁  沈晓华  王冠民  冀国盛  吴孔友  李理  洪梅  李勇  朱光有 《地质学报》2002,76(2):279-286

黄河下游(泺口以下)发育了大量的壶穴(Pothole),按成因可以分为6种:流水侵蚀、风蚀、圆砾铸模、冰压刻、冰融水滴蚀及泄气侵蚀。流水侵蚀形成的圆形Pothole规模不一,小者直径在十余厘米,深数厘米,大者直径达数米,深1 m余;风蚀形成的圆形Pothole规模一般比较小,直径多在二、三十厘米以下,深10 cm以下,大部分穴壁缓斜,状如盘碟;圆砾铸模形成的Pothole规模一般较小,直径多在一、二十厘米以下、穴壁陡倾,状如锅穴;冰融水滴蚀形成的Pothole形态复杂,规模不一,既有穴壁缓斜的盘碟状者,也有穴壁陡倾近乎直立的近圆柱状者,直径从不足1cm到三、四十厘米,其穴缘、穴壁和穴底常有次级构造;泄气侵蚀形成的Pothole更是十分复杂,平面形态可以圆形到近圆形甚至其他复杂形态,穴壁可以非常平缓,也可以陡倾,直径从数厘米到数十厘米,深数毫米到二、三十厘米,穴缘和穴壁也常有次级伴生构造,既可单独产出,也可成群产出,同时还可以多个密集产出,状如蜂巢,这一类Pothole的成因极为独特,主要与黄河断流河床捕获的空气泄漏有关。  相似文献   

广西凭祥地区早二叠世的岩浆弧及其构造意义   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

吴根耀  季建清  何顺东  钟大赉 《矿物岩石》2002,22(3):61-65

广西凭祥地区有3种不同建造背景的二叠-三叠系，深水相的下二叠统呈一飞来峰推覆在台地型的石炭纪-早三叠世沉积和早-中三叠世浊积岩上，与前者共生的基性-超基性岩是古特提斯岩浆弧的记录，当时的被动大陆边缘在百色阳圩-田林八渡，说明洋壳向南西消减，早二叠世弧的原形成位置可能在越南境内，早-中三叠世的弧则已向北东迁移，在中越交界区形成图尔基式造山带。  相似文献   

Laboratory study of landfill leachate effect on resistivity in unsaturated soil using cone penetrometer   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

G. Yoon  M. Oh  J. Park 《Environmental Geology》2002,43(1-2):18-28

  相似文献   

Fluid permeability of sedimentary rocks in a complete stress–strain process     

J. -A. Wang  H. D. Park   《Engineering Geology》2002,63(3-4):291-300

The permeability of sedimentary rocks during triaxial compression tests was investigated to relate it to the complete strain–stress process. It was found that the permeability was not constant, but varied with the stress and strain states in the rocks. Prior to the peak strength, the permeability decreases with increasing load. A dramatic increase in permeability occurs during the strain softening period. In the present study, in situ measurements of fluid flow and pressure in floor strata was carried out in a double longwall mining face in the Yangzhuang colliery. These measurements show that both the strata pressure and the position with respect to the mining face influence the hydrogeologic properties. The permeability increased in the floor strata behind the mining face because those mining induced fractures opened as the strata pressure decreased. To better understand this change in hydraulic behavior around the mining faces, 3-D numerical modeling was carried out. The model provides the general picture of the stress distribution and failure zone both in the floor and roof strata. The field and model results demonstrate the importance of changes in the stress and strain states on the hydrogeology of a site.  相似文献   

Determining Q of near-surface materials from Rayleigh waves     

Jianghai Xia  Richard D. Miller  Choon B. Park  Gang Tian 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2002,51(2-4)

High-frequency (≥2 Hz) Rayleigh wave phase velocities can be inverted to shear (S)-wave velocities for a layered earth model up to 30 m below the ground surface in many settings. Given S-wave velocity (V_S), compressional (P)-wave velocity (V_P), and Rayleigh wave phase velocities, it is feasible to solve for P-wave quality factor Q_P and S-wave quality factor Q_S in a layered earth model by inverting Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients. Model results demonstrate the plausibility of inverting Q_S from Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients. Contributions to the Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients from Q_P cannot be ignored when Vs/V_P reaches 0.45, which is not uncommon in near-surface settings. It is possible to invert Q_P from Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients in some geological setting, a concept that differs from the common perception that Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients are always far less sensitive to Q_P than to Q_S. Sixty-channel surface wave data were acquired in an Arizona desert. For a 10-layer model with a thickness of over 20 m, the data were first inverted to obtain S-wave velocities by the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method and then quality factors were determined by inverting attenuation coefficients.  相似文献   

探测大城市活断层的地球物理方法   总被引：31，自引：7，他引：31       下载免费PDF全文

方盛明  张先康  刘保金  徐锡伟  白登海  姬继法 《地震地质》2002,24(4):606-613

简要地介绍了开展大城市地震活断层探测的意义及世界各国开展活断层探测的基本情况。城市及邻近地区地震活断层引起的直下型地震 ,将会给大城市造成巨大的地震灾害。准确地探测出大城市的活断层分布 ,采取有效措施 ,可大大降低地震时的损失。文中重点介绍了开展地震活断层探测的地球物理方法的类型和主要特点 ,在区域探查与初步鉴定阶段、详细探测与精确定位阶段、孕震构造探测阶段可能涉及到的各种地球物理探测方法、适用范围及所能解决的主要问题  相似文献