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481.
482.
The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
Robert Vautard Andreas Gobiet Daniela Jacob Michal Belda Augustin Colette Michel Déqué Jesús Fernández Markel García-Díez Klaus Goergen Ivan Güttler Tomáš Halenka Theodore Karacostas Eleni Katragkou Klaus Keuler Sven Kotlarski Stephanie Mayer Erik van Meijgaard Grigory Nikulin Mirta Patarčić John Scinocca Stefan Sobolowski Martin Suklitsch Claas Teichmann Kirsten Warrach-Sagi Volker Wulfmeyer Pascal Yiou 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2555-2575
The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly. 相似文献
483.
Annemiek I. Stegehuis Robert Vautard Philippe Ciais Adriaan J. Teuling Martin Jung Pascal Yiou 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(2):455-477
The occurrence and intensity of heatwaves is expected to increase with climate change. Early warnings of hot summers have therefore a great socio-economical value. Previous studies have shown that hot summers are preceded by a Southern European rainfall deficit during winter, and higher spring temperatures. Changes in the surface energy budget are believed to drive this evolution, in particular changes in the latent and sensible heat fluxes. However these have rarely been investigated due to the lack of long-term reliable observation data. In this study, we analyzed several data-derived gridded products of latent and sensible heat fluxes, based on flux tower observations, together with re-analyses and regional climate model simulations over Europe. We find that warm summers are preceded by an increase in latent heat flux in early spring. During warm summers, an increase in available energy results in an excess of both latent and sensible heat fluxes over most of Europe, but a latent heat flux decrease over the Iberian Peninsula. This indicates that, on average, a summertime soil-moisture limited evapotranspiration regime only prevails in the Iberian Peninsula. In general, the models that we analyzed overestimate latent heat and underestimate sensible heat as compared to the flux tower derived data-product. Most models show considerable drying during warm seasons, leading to the establishment of a soil-moisture limited regime across Europe in summer. This over-estimation by the current generation of models of latent heat and hence of soil moisture deficit over Europe in summer has potential consequences for future summertime climate projections and the projected frequency of heat waves. We also show that a northward propagation of drought during warm summers is found in model results, a phenomenon which is also seen in the flux tower data-product. Our results lead to a better understanding of the role of latent and sensible heat flux in summer heatwaves, and provide a framework for benchmark of modeling studies. 相似文献
484.
Fernandez JM Ouillon S Chevillon C Douillet P Fichez R Le Gendre R 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(3):320-331
Open-cast mining for Ni, Cr and Co was conducted in the south-west part of New Caledonia during the 20th century. Abandoned mining and prospecting sites were severely affected by erosion, resulting in an increase in the load of terrigenous particles transported to the coral reef lagoon. This article assesses the impact of a typical small catchment area (La Coulée River, 85 km2 watershed) on two bays (Boulari and Sainte Marie) located near Noumea, New Caledonia's main city. This multi-disciplinary study combines geochemical, sedimentological, and hydrodynamic approaches. Ni and Cr concentrations contained in the geochemical matrix phase of the pelitic fraction were determined. The study of the geochemical signatures together with sedimentological data and 3D numerical simulations of the transport of non-settling particles throughout the lagoon demonstrated that terrigenous inputs from the Coulée River were mainly transported and deposited along the shoreline, reaching areas as distant as Sainte Marie Bay. Although quantitatively low (about 3% of the pelite mass of the bay sediments), the terrigenous inputs in Sainte Marie Bay originating from the Coulée River could be traced. The metal content in suspended matter was over 7000 mg kg(-1) for Ni and 4200 mg kg(-1) for Cr. 相似文献
485.
486.
Ragusa Jérémy Kindler Pascal Segvic Branimir Ospina-Ostios Lina Maria 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2017,106(8):2619-2651
International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Chablais Prealps (Haute-Savoie, France) represent a well-preserved accretionary wedge of the Western Alpine Tethys. They comprise a stack of... 相似文献