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61.
62.
Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed. 相似文献
63.
Gil Penha-Lopes Erik Kristensen Perrine Mangion José Paula 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(4):560-572
Benthic metabolism (measured as CO2 production) and carbon oxidation pathways were evaluated in 4 mangrove mesocosms subjected daily to seawater or 60% sewage in the absence or presence of mangrove trees and biogenic structures (pneumatophores and crab burrows). Total CO2 emission from darkened sediments devoid of biogenic structures at pristine conditions was comparable during inundation (immersion) and air exposure (emersion), although increased 2-7 times in sewage contaminated mesocosms. Biogenic structures increased low tide carbon gas emissions at contaminated (30%) and particularly pristine conditions (60%). When sewage was loaded into the mesocosms under unvegetated and planted conditions, iron reduction was substituted by sulfate reduction and contribution of aerobic respiration to total metabolism remained above 50%. Our results clearly show impacts of sewage on the partitioning of electron acceptors in mangrove sediment and confirm the importance of biogenic structures for biogeochemical functioning but also on greenhouse gases emission. 相似文献
64.
65.
Mara Almeida Carlos Guerra Teresa Pinto-Correia 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(2):97-108
The high nature value (HNV) concept, proposed by the European Environment Agency, recognizes that specific farming systems support high biodiversity levels, mainly as a result of extensive management practices. The Portuguese montado is one of the most significant HNV systems in southern Europe. However, considering the great complexity characterizing these systems both in land management and in landscape structure, a specific context-oriented methodology to assess which montado areas are likely to be classified as HNV farmland is needed. In this sense, the aim of this study is to explore a methodological approach which makes it possible to assess land management pressures through land cover information on these complex silvo-pastoral systems. The proposed methodology was tested through a local case study in a montado area in southern Portugal, assessing the relation between management practices and a vegetation cover index. Results show that in similar montado areas different land management strategies varying in stocking density, but also in type of grazing animals and shrub control practices, configure different vegetation cycles. These results indicate there is a way to develop a straightforward methodology to assess the HNV value of Mediterranean silvo-pastoral systems based on land cover indicators. These would make it possible to assess the HNV of montado areas with direct and objective information and independent of farmer’s surveys or other farm-based data. 相似文献
66.
Carlos Guerra Marc J. Metzger João Honrado Joaquim Alonso 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(10):2077-2098
When establishing environmental monitoring programmes, it crucial to make reliable cost estimates, especially where a field survey is involved. This paper presents a methodology for creating a spatial measure of a field survey effort (SE). A set of relevant variables affecting a SE (e.g. areas with rough terrain, or distant from the main road network) was classified using fuzzy sets and then combined to produce spatially explicit effort indicators, which were integrated to a single measure using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). To evaluate this approach and identify the limits for its application, three spatially nested case studies were used to test the spatial expression of SE and the scalable capacity of the method itself. The presented methodology could cope with variations in the scale and data resolution, retrieving a coherent estimate of SE across the different case studies. The presented methodology is therefore useful for (i) testing the network designs for sampling bias related to SE, (ii) comparing alternative sampling designs, (iii) assessing the sampling costs and (iv) supporting the human and logistical resource management. 相似文献
67.
Idalina Veludo Paula Teves-Costa Pierre-Yves Bard 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2013,11(2):423-453
Angra do Heroísmo, located in Terceira Island, is the main town of the Central Group of Azores Archipelago and it is classified as World Heritage by Unesco. The preservation of this patrimony, located inside a seismic region, includes the implementation of a policy to protect it against earthquakes. The development of credible damage scenarios could help this objective, as they can be used in prevention measures to minimize the impact of future earthquakes. Two methods were used for seismic damage estimation: the capacity spectrum method and a new method, based on the direct response of a 1D non-linear oscillator to simulate the building seismic performance. Both methods seem to overestimate the damages for the near sources, but this could be due to the empirical model used to estimate the input ground motion. Comparison with the damage observed after the January 1st, 1980 earthquake show a large discrepancy with an underestimation bias, which can be explained, mainly, by the difference of building performance and on the plausible hypothesis of 2D site effects. 相似文献
68.
Marcio T. A. H. Muella Eurico R. de Paula Alan A. Monteiro 《Surveys in Geophysics》2013,34(2):233-251
This paper reports differences in the occurrence statistics of global positioning system (GPS) L-band scintillations at observational sites located in the inner regions of the northern and southern crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly. Ground-based GPS data acquired at the closed magnetically aligned stations of Manaus (3.1°S; 59.9°W; dip lat. 6.2°N) and Cuiabá (15.5°S; 56.1°W; dip. lat. 6.2°S), Brazil, from December 2001 to February 2007 are used in the analysis. The drift dynamics of Fresnel-scale ionospheric irregularities at the southern station of Cuiabá are also investigated. Only geomagnetically quiet days with the sum of daily Kp < 24 were used in the analysis statistics and in the irregularity drift studies. The results reveal a clear dependence of the scintillation occurrence with the solar activity, but there exists an asymmetry in the percentage of scintillation occurrence between the two stations throughout the period analyzed. The nocturnal occurrence of the scintillations over Cuiabá is predominantly larger than over Manaus, but this scenario seems to change with the decline in the solar activity (mainly during local post-midnight hours). A broad minimum and maximum in the scintillation occurrence appears to occur over both the stations, respectively, during the June solstice (winter) and December solstice (summer) months. The dynamics of the Fresnel-scale irregularities, as investigated from the estimations of the mean zonal drift velocities, reveals that the amplitude of the eastward drifts tends to reduce with the decline in the solar activity. The magnitude of the zonal drift velocities during the December solstice months is larger than during the equinoxes, with the differences being more pronounced at solar maximum years. Other relevant aspects of the observations, with complementary data from a low-latitude ionospheric model, are highlighted and discussed. 相似文献
69.
The 23 April 1909 earthquake, with epicentre near Benavente (Portugal), was the largest crustal earthquake in the Iberian
Peninsula during the twentieth century (M
w = 6.0). Due to its importance, several studies were developed soon after its occurrence, in Portugal and in Spain. A perusal
of the different studies on the macroseismic field of this earthquake showed some discrepancies, in particular on the abnormal
patterns of the isoseismal curves in Spain. Besides, a complete list of intensity data points for the event is unavailable
at present. Seismic moment, focal mechanism and other earthquake parameters obtained from the instrumental records have been
recently reviewed and recalculated. Revision of the macroseismic field of this earthquake poses a unique opportunity to study
macroseismic propagation and local effects in central Iberian Peninsula. For this reasons, a search to collect new macroseismic
data for this earthquake has been carried out, and a re-evaluation of the whole set has been performed and it is presented
here. Special attention is paid to the observed low attenuation of the macroseismic effects, heterogeneous propagation and
the distortion introduced by local amplifications. Results of this study indicate, in general, an overestimation of the intensity
degrees previously assigned to this earthquake in Spain; also it illustrates how difficult it is to assign an intensity degree
to a large town, where local effects play an important role, and confirms the low attenuation of seismic propagation inside
the Iberian Peninsula from west and southwest to east and northeast. 相似文献
70.
New friends in new places: Network formation during the migration process among Poles in the UK 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper contributes to on-going work that seeks to understand the dynamic nature of immigrant social network formation. We explore three propositions, derived from the literature, that might be expected to characterise the ways in which migrant associational ties evolve during and immediately after arrival in their destination country. Evidence is drawn from 42 interviews conducted between January and December 2008 with predominantly Polish migrants to the UK (28) as well as domestic service providers (14). In agreement with the existing literature on immigrant social network formation we find that weak associational ties between migrants are locally dense and rapidly formed. More surprisingly, we also find that the Poles in our sample from lower socio-economic groups tended to rely heavily upon weak associational ties while higher socio-economic group Poles tended to rely on associations made through their employing institutions. This illustrates the importance of socio-economic status in framing co-ethnic migrant network formation. This is significant because we also find that weak associational ties are not unambiguously beneficial to lower socio-economic group migrants who tend to (have to be) more compromising about, and therefore more compromised by, the social ‘friendships’ that result. 相似文献