Evaluation of Community Climate System Model soil temperatures using observations from Russia     

D. PaiMazumder  J. Miller  Z. Li  J. E. Walsh  A. Etringer  J. McCreight  T. Zhang  N. Mölders 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2008,94(3-4):187-213

  相似文献   

Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Bert de Vries  Arthur Beusen  Peter S.C. Heuberger 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(4):635

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.  相似文献   

Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change     

Jeffery R. Scott  Andrei P. Sokolov  Peter H. Stone  Mort D. Webster 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(5):441-454

The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO₂ forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO₂-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO₂-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO₂ stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.  相似文献   

Preface: Workshop on matter,astrophysics, gravitation,ions and cosmology—MAGIC23     

César A. Zen Vasconcellos  Dimiter Hadjimichef  Magno Machado  Benno Bodmann  Marcelo Netz-Marzola  Geovane Naysinger  Mariana Vargas Magaña  Peter O. Hess  Horst Stöcker  Steven Gullberg  Remo Ruffini 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2024,345(2-3):e240029

We outline our experience in organizing the first edition of the Workshop on Matter, Astrophysics, Gravitation, Ions and Cosmology, held in virtual and in-person format, denominated MAGIC23, held from 6 to 10 March, 2023, in Praia do Rosa, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The event aimed to bring together leading academic scientists, professors, students, and research scholars for exchanging experiences and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, practical challenges, and experimental and theoretical solutions adopted in the investigation fields within the scope of the meeting. The workshop offered to the participants a platform for scientific and academic projects, partnerships, and presentation of high-quality research contributions describing original and unpublished results on topics related to matter, astrophysics, gravitation, ions, and cosmology.  相似文献   

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Till Kuhlbrodt  Stefan Rahmstorf  Kirsten Zickfeld  Frode Bendiksen Vikebø  Svein Sundby  Matthias Hofmann  Peter Michael Link  Alberte Bondeau  Wolfgang Cramer  Carlo Jaeger 《Climatic change》2009,96(4):489-537

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.  相似文献   

Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation at peak Moussala     

Peter Nojarov  Peter Ivanov  Ivo Kalapov  Ilia Penev  Mirolujba Drenska 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,98(1-2):201-208

Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation is investigated based on measurements at BEO station, peak Moussala (2,925 m a.s.l.), for the period 09 August 2006 to 29 January 2008. Ozone concentration data are collected with UV-analyzer “Environnement O₃ 42” and meteo data with weather station “Vaisala”. There are measurements of ⁷Be. Data from NOAA HYSPLIT model for particle trajectories are also used. Eight wind directions and three ranges of wind velocities are employed in the analysis. A comparison of ozone concentrations in upward and downward air transport according to HYSPLIT model is made. The number of cases with ozone concentration above 63 ppb has been counted. Mann–Whitney nonparametric test is employed as a basic statistical method. Correlation between atmosphere pressure and tropospheric ozone content is made. The same is done for ⁷Be and ozone. The main conclusion is that there is not any local or regional pollution effect detectable at peak Moussala, but most of the ozone measured is due to emissions of hydrocarbons and NO _x over a larger region. There could be some regional sources of ozone building substances in southwest direction from peak Moussala. Air transported from the north quarter has higher ozone concentrations compared to the south quarter. In vertical direction, upward transport of air masses shows higher values of ozone concentration. Higher wind velocity is associated with low ozone concentrations at peak Moussala. The annual course of ozone concentration has summer maximum and winter minimum. There is right connection between air pressure and ozone concentration. The same is valid for the correlation between ⁷Be and ozone. Diurnal ozone course shows daytime maximum in winter and nighttime maximum in summer.  相似文献   

Opacity effects on the polarization of line emissions in astrophysical plasmas     

Peter Hakel  Roberto C. Mancini 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,322(1-4):113-116

Polarization-based line spectroscopy is a valuable tool in determining the characteristics of electron distribution functions in anisotropic plasmas. For instance, directional electrons can unevenly populate the magnetic sublevels of atomic energy levels resulting in partial polarization of the emitted spectral lines. The large dimensions of astrophysical sources raise the possibility of non-negligible self-absorption effects on spectral line properties. Alternatively, the high densities characteristic of laser-produced laboratory plasmas can also result in substantial optical depth values. We present a modeling study of He-like Fe line emissions in which we investigate the effects of radiation transport on the polarization of selected spectral lines under corona conditions.  相似文献   

On the homeostasis and bistability on a Gaian planet     

Peter Nørtoft Nielsen 《Planetary and Space Science》2009,57(4):491-497

Geochemical disequilibrium of Earth's atmosphere is a sign of life. The fact that Earth's atmosphere is just right for life led Lovelock to propose the Gaia hypothesis: life itself regulates the environment on planetary scale in order to maintain habitability. This hypothesis is supported by the so-called Daisyworld parable, which illustrates a possible mechanism for such a self regulation. Here we revisit Daisyworld and challenge some of its conclusions from a closer examination of the model. We find that even within this simple, conceptual model of a Gaian planet there are regimes where climate is less homeostatic than on a dead planet. Furthermore, in other regimes, bistability between two climate states is found to exist due to the presence of life. This indicates that even if the Gaian stability might describe life in some planetary conditions, it need not be generic to all inhabited planets.  相似文献   

Post-starburst galaxies: more than just an interesting curiosity     

Vivienne Wild  C. Jakob Walcher  Peter H. Johansson  Laurence Tresse  Stéphane Charlot  Agnieszka Pollo  Olivier Le Fèvre  Loic de Ravel 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):144-159

  相似文献   

Monte Carlo Markov Chain parameter estimation in semi-analytic models of galaxy formation     

Bruno M. B. Henriques  Peter A. Thomas  Seb Oliver  Isaac Roseboom 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(1):535-547

  相似文献