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Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.  相似文献   
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We present a suborbital rocket payload capable of performing soft X-ray spectroscopy on extended sources. The payload can reach resolutions of ??100 (??/ ????) over sources as large as 3.25° in diameter in the 17?C107 Å bandpass. This permits analysis of the overall energy balance of nearby supernova remnants and the detailed nature of the diffuse soft X-ray background. The main components of the instrument are: wire grid collimators, off-plane grating arrays and gaseous electron multiplier detectors. This payload is adaptable to longer duration orbital rockets given its comparatively simple pointing and telemetry requirements and an abundance of potential science targets.  相似文献   
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Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.  相似文献   
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The Sonoran Desert portion of the Basin and Range physiographic province contains a number of streams that now flow across once-closed basins. We explore here the research questions of if and how granitic rock pediments respond to the transition from rimming endorheic basins to bordering through-flowing streams. Granitic rock pediments of the northern Usery and eastern McDowell Mountains once graded to the closed Miocene–Pliocene Pemberton basin that occupied the present-day location of the confluence of the Salt and Verde Rivers. The process of lake overflow, which integrated these rivers, first aggraded fill terraces that, in turn, caused aggradation of a mantle of transported grus on bedrock pediments. Subsequent episodic incision of the Salt and Verde rivers lowered the base level; this led to the development of erosional features such as rolling topography of a degrading pediment mantle; exposure of the former piedmont angle and its associated zones of enhanced bedrock decay and regolith carbonate; and exposure of spheroidally weathered bedrock and emerging tors, some of which experienced 20th century erosion. The granitic pediments of the former Pemberton Basin, which now transport grus to the Salt and Verde rivers, have actively adjusted to aggradational and degradational events associated with drainage integration and do not appear to be inherited from an ancient wet climatic interval.  相似文献   
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The goal of this contribution is to focus on improving the quality of gravity field models in the form of spherical harmonic representation via alternative configuration scenarios applied in future gravimetric satellite missions. We performed full-scale simulations of various mission scenarios within the frame work of the German joint research project “Concepts for future gravity field satellite missions” as part of the Geotechnologies Program, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the German Research Foundation. In contrast to most previous simulation studies including our own previous work, we extended the simulated time span from one to three consecutive months to improve the robustness of the assessed performance. New is that we performed simulations for seven dedicated satellite configurations in addition to the GRACE scenario, serving as a reference baseline. These scenarios include a “GRACE Follow-on” mission (with some modifications to the currently implemented GRACE-FO mission), and an in-line “Bender” mission, in addition to five mission scenarios that include additional cross-track and radial information. Our results clearly confirm the benefit of radial and cross-track measurement information compared to the GRACE along-track observable: the gravity fields recovered from the related alternative mission scenarios are superior in terms of error level and error isotropy. In fact, one of our main findings is that although the noise levels achievable with the particular configurations do vary between the simulated months, their order of performance remains the same. Our findings show also that the advanced pendulums provide the best performance of the investigated single formations, however an accuracy reduced by about 2–4 times in the important long-wavelength part of the spectrum (for spherical harmonic degrees ${<}50$ ), compared to the Bender mission, can be observed. Concerning state-of-the-art mission constraints, in particular the severe restriction of heterodyne lasers on maximum range-rates, only the moderate Pendulum and the Bender-mission are beneficial options, of course in addition to GRACE and GRACE-FO. Furthermore, a Bender-type constellation would result in the most accurate gravity field solution by a factor of about 12 at long wavelengths (up to degree/order 40) and by a factor of about 200 at short wavelengths (up to degree/order 120) compared to the present GRACE solution. Finally, we suggest the Pendulum and the Bender missions as candidate mission configurations depending on the available budget and technological progress.  相似文献   
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We present high-resolution radio maps of Uranus, made from data collected in 1994 at wavelengths of 2 and 6 cm, which show large-scale changes occurring deep and rapidly in the troposphere. Brightness features in these maps are significantly different from those observed throughout the 1980's. These differences are not due to the changing viewing geometry, but result from atmospheric changes in the 5 to 50 bar region. All the observations show strong latitudinal variations in absorber abundance and/or temperature, causing the South Pole to appear brighter than lower latitudes. The transition between bright pole and darker latitudes is always near −45°, but between 1989 and 1994 the contrast between the regions increased significantly. This suggests that the large-scale circulation in the upper 50 bars of the uranian Southern Hemisphere changed. Older, disk-averaged microwave observations have suggested that seasonal variability occurs, but these new maps are the first to provide detailed timing and location information which can be used to test dynamical models.  相似文献   
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