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Today, the nested model is used widely. The effect and role of each nested variate is analyzed in this paper. It is found that the forecast could benefit by nesting part of the variates and the effect of each of the variates may be different. Therefore, only the effectual variates are chosen for the nesting. According to this finding, a scheme is suggested and applied to the limited area mode (TL10) nested with global spectral mode (T63) for forecasting tropical cyclones over the South China Sea. A few numerical prediction tests show that this scheme is reasonable and efficient. 相似文献
85.
Junping Huang Xiangbo Li Qilin Chen Zhanlong Yang Yanrong Wan Lihua Wei Liwen Long Xiaoguang Liu 《中国地球化学学报》2012,31(3):327-339
In the lower parts of oil reservoirs Chang 9 and Chang 10 of the Yanchang Formation are oil-bearing layers newly found in oil exploration in the Ordos Basin.Based on GC,GC-MS analyses of saturated hydrocarbons from crude oils and source rocks,reservoir fluid inclusions and BasinMod,the origin of crude oils,accumulation period and accumulation models are discussed in combination with other petroleum geology data in this paper.The result shows that(1) there are two different types of crude oils in oil reservoir Chang 9 in the Longdong and Jiyuan regions:crude oils of typeⅠ(Well D86,Well A44,Well A75,Well B227,Well X62 and Well Z150) are mainly de-rived from the Chang 7 source rocks(including mudstones and shales) and distributed in the Jiyuan and Longdong regions;those of typeⅡ(Well Z14 and Well Y427),are distributed in the Longdong region,which are derived from the Chang 9 source rocks.Crude oils from oil reservoir Chang 10 in the Shanbei region are mainly derived from the Chang-9 source rocks;(2) there are two phases of hydrocarbon filling in oil reservoir Chang 9 in the Jiyuan and Longdong regions and oil reservoir Chang 10 in the Shanbei region:The first phase started at the early stage of J2z.The process of hydrocarbon filling was discontinuous in the Late Jurassic,because of the tectonic-thermal event in the Ordos Basin.The second phase was the main accumulation period,and hydrocarbons began to accumulate from the late stage of J2a to the middle-late of K1,mainly at the middle-late stage of K1;(3) there exist two types of accu-mulation models in oil reservoirs Chang 9 and Chang 10 of the Yanchang Formation:source rocks of the reservoirs in oil reservoir Chang 9 in the Jiyuan region and oil reservoir Chang 10 in the Shanbei region,the mixed type of reservoirs on the lateral side of source rocks and source rocks of the reservoirs in oil reservoir Chang 9 in the Long-dong region. 相似文献
86.
笔者等以柴达木盆地柴西地区构造特征为基础,首先分析了柴达木盆地区域构造背景,认为柴达木盆地新生代属于巨型的环青藏高原盆山体系,阿尔金山前前陆冲断带就形成于盆山结合部,阿尔金山前冲断活动主要受控于喜马拉雅运动期印度板块与青藏高原的活动,其次根据走滑断裂规模和走滑断裂对整个盆地沉积的控制作用,将柴西地区的各种复杂走滑断裂分为盆地级(一级)、区带级(二级)、圈闭级(三级)、显微级走滑断裂;柴西地区各种复杂多样的走滑断裂与之伴生的构造组合都与其所经历的构造运动和构造演化有关;在构造演化的基础上分析了柴西各走滑断裂的形成期与改造期,最后研究了走滑断裂在油气成藏过程中起着重要地作用,控制了油气聚集和分布,在勘探实践中取得了很好的效果. 相似文献
87.
利用多目标区域地球化学调查高精度和高密度土壤碳分布数据,建立"单位土壤碳量",采用指数模型计算方法,取得各地区土壤碳储量数据.按照土壤类型、土地利用分类、生态系统及自然景观等划分方式,按照 0～0.2m,0～1.0m和 0～1.8m不同土壤深度,分析了四川、湖南、吉林、江苏、河北、陕西等代表性地区有机碳储量空间分布特征,进行中国土壤碳储量研究.计算结果表明,全国土壤碳储量分布不均匀.按照 0～1.8m深度比较,成都平原土壤碳储量为1462.9Mt,碳密度为24813t/km2; 吉林平原区碳储量1381.96Mt,碳密度14473t/km2; 湖南洞庭湖区碳储量757.65Mt,碳密度18171t/km2; 江苏省碳储量1468.87Mt,碳密度13802t/km2; 陕西渭河平原碳储量165.47Mt,碳密度12124t/km2; 河北平原区碳储量844.84Mt,碳密度10525t/km2.按照面积加权平均计算,推算出全国多目标区域地球化学调查地区平均碳密度,0～0.2m为3186t/km2,0～1.0m为11646t/km2,0～1.8m为15339t/km2. 相似文献
88.
GRAPES_RAFS系统研发 总被引：12，自引：6，他引：6
基于GRAPES (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)模式的GRAPES_RAFS (Rapid Analysis and Forecast System)系统是一个向前的间歇性同化分析的分析系统,能将多种高时空分辨率的观测资料充分利用起来,同时也是一个不断更新数值预报产品的中尺度数值预报系统.本文从该系统的结构、流程所涉及的各技术环节进行阐述,通过与业务GRAPES_MESO的预报效果对比分析对该系统的短时临近预报能力以及影响该系统短临预报性能的关键技术进行研究.研究结果表明:利用我国新一代数值预报系统GRAPES模式及GRAPES_3Dvar建立的全国稠密资料快速更新同化分析预报系统(GRAPES_RAFS系统)具有一定短时临近预报能力.同化系统的背景误差协方差准确描述、模式系统动力框架及物理过程精确度的提高能有效提高该系统的预报能力,而局地稠密资料的合理使用是该系统提供高质量预报的另一个关键技术,在资料相对稀少的情况下,该系统的短临预报性能面临严重挑战. 相似文献
89.
Aerosol particles can serve as cloud condensation nuclei(CCN)to influence orographic clouds.Autoconversion,which describes the initial formation of raindrops from the collision of cloud droplets,is an important process for aerosol-cloud-precipitation systems.In this study,seven autoconversion schemes are used to investigate the impact of CCN on orographic warm-phase clouds.As the initial cloud droplet concentration is increased from 100 cm-3to 1000 cm-3(to represent an increase in CCN),the cloud water increases and then the rainwater is suppressed due to a decrease in the autoconversion rate,leading to a spatial shift in surface precipitation.Intercomparison of the results from the autoconversion schemes show that the sensitivity of cloud water,rainwater,and surface precipitation to a change in the concentration of CCN is different from scheme to scheme.In particular,the decrease in orographic precipitation due to increasing CCN is found to range from-87%to-10%depending on the autoconversion scheme.Moreover,the surface precipitation distribution also changes significantly by scheme or CCN concentration,and the increase in the spillover(ratio of precipitation on the leeward side to total precipitation)induced by increased CCN ranges from 10%to 55%under different autoconversion schemes.The simulations suggest that autoconversion parameterization schemes should not be ignored in the interaction of aerosol and orographic cloud. 相似文献
90.