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The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region. 相似文献
164.
Four of the major plutons in the vicinity of the Candelaria mine (470 Mt at 0.95% Cu, 0.22 g/t Au, 3.1 g/t Ag) and a dike–sill system exposed in the Candelaria open pit have been dated with the U–Pb zircon method. The new geochronological data indicate that dacite magmatism around 123 Ma preceded the crystallization of hornblende diorite (Khd) at 118 ± 1 Ma, quartz–monzonite porphyry (Kqm) at 116.3 ± 0.4 Ma, monzodiorite (Kmd) at 115.5 ± 0.4 Ma, and tonalite (Kt) at 110.7 ± 0.4 Ma. The new ages of the plutons are consistent with field relationships regarding the relative timing of emplacement. Plutonism temporally overlaps with the iron oxide Cu–Au mineralization (Re–Os molybdenite ages at ∼115 Ma) and silicate alteration (ages mainly from 114 to 116 and 110 to 112 Ma) in the Candelaria–Punta del Cobre district. The dated dacite porphyry and hornblende diorite intrusions preceded the ore formation. A genetic link of the metallic mineralization with the quartz–monzonite porphyry and/or the monzodiorite is likely. Both of these metaluminous, shoshonitic (high-K) intrusions could have provided energy and contributed fluids, metals, and sulfur to the hydrothermal system that caused the iron oxide Cu–Au mineralization. The age of the tonalite at 110.7 Ma falls in the same range as the late alteration at 110 to 112 Ma. Tonalite emplacement may have sustained existing or driven newly developed hydrothermal cells that caused this late alteration or modified 40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar systematic in some areas. 相似文献
165.
Combined Digital Photogrammetry and Time-of-Flight Laser Scanning for Monitoring Cliff Evolution 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Michael Lim David N. Petley Nicholas J. Rosser Robert J. Allison Antony J. Long David Pybus 《The Photogrammetric Record》2005,20(110):109-129
Although cliffs form approximately 75% of the world's coastline, the understanding of the processes through which they evolve remains limited because of a lack of quantitative data on the morphological changes they undergo. In this paper the combination of terrestrial time-of-flight laser scanning with high-resolution digital photogrammetry is examined to generate high-quality data-sets pertaining to the geomorphic processes governing cliff development. The study was undertaken on a section of hard rock cliffs in North Yorkshire, UK, which has been monitored over a 12-month period. High-density, laser-scanned point clouds have been used to produce an accurate representation of these complex surfaces, free from the optical variations that degrade photographic data. These data-sets have been combined with high-resolution photographic monitoring, resampled with the fixed accuracies of the terrestrial laser survey, to generate a new approach to recording the volumetric changes in complex coastal cliffs. This has led to significant improvements in the understanding of the activity patterns of coastal cliffs. 相似文献
166.
167.
Robert F Dias Katherine H FreemanMichael D Lewan Stephen G Franks 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(15):2755-2769
Low-molecular-weight (LMW) aqueous organic acids were generated from six oil-prone source rocks under hydrous-pyrolysis conditions. Differences in total organic carbon-normalized acid generation are a function of the initial thermal maturity of the source rock and the oxygen content of the kerogen (OI). Carbon-isotope analyses were used to identify potential generation mechanisms and other chemical reactions that might influence the occurrence of LMW organic acids. The generated LMW acids display increasing 13C content as a function of decreasing molecular weight and increasing thermal maturity. The magnitudes of observed isotope fractionations are source-rock dependent. These data are consistent with δ13C values of organic acids presented in a field study of the San Joaquin Basin and likely reflect the contributions from alkyl-carbons and carboxyl-carbons with distinct δ13C values. The data do not support any particular organic acid generation mechanism. The isotopic trends observed as a function of molecular weight, thermal maturity, and rock type are not supported by either generation mechanisms or destructive decarboxylation. It is therefore proposed that organic acids experience isotopic fractionation during generation consistent with a primary kinetic isotope effect and subsequently undergo an exchange reaction between the carboxyl carbon and dissolved inorganic carbon that significantly influences the carbon isotope composition observed for the entire molecule. Although generation and decarboxylation may influence the δ13C values of organic acids, in the hydrous pyrolysis system described, the nondestructive, pH-dependent exchange of carboxyl carbon with inorganic carbon appears to be the most important reaction mechanism controlling the δ13C values of the organic acids. 相似文献
168.
Robert W Luth 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(12):2091-2098
The melting reaction at the solidus of mantle peridotite is commonly peritectic in nature, with liquid and one or more solid phases produced upon melting. In some situations, one of the phases participating on the reactant side of the reaction is present in low abundance. This article explores the possible effects of the low abundance of a reactant phase on the melting behavior of mantle peridotite.For example, spinel lherzolite begins to melt via the peritectic reaction, clinopyroxene + orthopyroxene + spinel = olivine + liquid in the ∼1- to 2-GPa pressure range. In natural spinel lherzolites, spinel is a modally minor mineral and may be infrequently in contact with both clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene. If these mutual contacts are insufficient to generate an interconnected melt, then significant melting may not occur until a combination of minerals that are modally abundant and in contact begin to melt. This scenario could have implications for the physical process of melting and for the timing of formation of an interconnected melt network and separation of the melt from the residue.To begin to investigate this possibility, the spatial relationships between the constituent minerals in two fertile spinel lherzolites were determined by elemental mapping with the electron microprobe. Olivine, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene are of similar size, whereas the spinel was smaller and interstitial. Spinel and clinopyroxene are frequently in contact, but mutual contacts of spinel, clinopyroxene, and orthopyroxene are rare. Because of the changes in modal mineralogy anticipated for these lherzolites with increasing temperature, these mutual contacts will be even less common at the solidus. Therefore, an interconnected, potentially extractable, melt may not occur by the solidus spinel + orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene melting reaction. 相似文献
169.
Robert H Wood 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(24):4365
170.
Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Donald Scavia John C. Field Donald F. Boesch Robert W. Buddemeier Virginia Burkett Daniel R. Cayan Michael Fogarty Mark A. Harwell Robert W. Howarth Curt Mason Denise J. Reed Thomas C. Royer Asbury H. Sallenger James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. 相似文献