Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico     

José J. Hernández Ayala  David Keellings  Peter R. Waylen  Corene J. Matyas 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(13):2103-2119

An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.  相似文献   

Effects of fracture intersections on seismic dispersion: theoretical predictions versus numerical simulations          下载免费PDF全文

Junxin Guo  J. Germán Rubino  Stanislav Glubokovskikh  Boris Gurevich 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(5):1264-1276

The detection and characterisation of domains of intersecting fractures are important goals in several disciplines of current interest, including exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs, nuclear waste storage, CO₂ sequestration, and groundwater hydrology, among others. The objective of this study is to propose a theoretical framework for quantifying the effects of fracture intersections on the frequency‐dependent elastic properties of fluid‐saturated porous and fractured rocks. Three characteristic frequency regimes for fluid pressure communication are identified. In the low‐frequency limit, fractures are in full pressure communication with the embedding porous matrix and with other fractures. Conversely, in the high‐frequency limit, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix and from other fractures. At intermediate frequencies, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix porosity but can be in hydraulic communication with each other, depending on whether fracture sets are intersecting. For each frequency regime, the effective stiffness coefficients are derived using the linear‐slip theory and anisotropic Gassmann equations. Explicit mathematical expressions for the two characteristic frequencies that separate the three frequency regimes are also determined. Theoretical predictions are then applied to two synthetic 2D samples, each containing two orthogonal fracture sets: one with and another without intersections. The resulting stiffness coefficients, Thomsen‐style anisotropy parameters, and the transition frequencies show good agreement with corresponding numerical simulations. The theoretical results are applicable not only to 2D but also to 3D fracture systems and are amenable to being employed in inversion schemes designed to characterise fracture systems.  相似文献   

Uncertainty analysis and probabilistic segmentation of electrical resistivity images: the 2D inverse problem          下载免费PDF全文

Juan Luis Fernández‐Martínez  Shan Xu  Colette Sirieix  Zulima Fernández‐Muniz  Joëlle Riss 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(Z1):112-130

In this paper, we present the uncertainty analysis of the 2D electrical tomography inverse problem using model reduction and performing the sampling via an explorative member of the Particle Swarm Optimization family, called the Regressive‐Regressive Particle Swarm Optimization. The procedure begins with a local inversion to find a good resistivity model located in the nonlinear equivalence region of the set of plausible solutions. The dimension of this geophysical model is then reduced using spectral decomposition, and the uncertainty space is explored via Particle Swarm Optimization. Using this approach, we show that it is possible to sample the uncertainty space of the electrical tomography inverse problem. We illustrate this methodology with the application to a synthetic and a real dataset coming from a karstic geological set‐up. By computing the uncertainty of the inverse solution, it is possible to perform the segmentation of the resistivity images issued from inversion. This segmentation is based on the set of equivalent models that have been sampled, and makes it possible to answer geophysical questions in a probabilistic way, performing risk analysis.  相似文献   

Atlas of susceptibility to pollution in marinas. Application to the Spanish coast     

Aina G. Gómez  Bárbara Ondiviela  María Fernández  José A. Juanes 《Marine pollution bulletin》2017,114(1):239-246

An atlas of susceptibility to pollution of 320 Spanish marinas is provided. Susceptibility is assessed through a simple, fast and low cost empirical method estimating the flushing capacity of marinas. The Complexity Tidal Range Index (CTRI) was selected among eleven empirical methods. The CTRI method was selected by means of statistical analyses because: it contributes to explain the system's variance; it is highly correlated to numerical model results; and, it is sensitive to marinas' location and typology. The process of implementation to the Spanish coast confirmed its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a tool for the environmental management of marinas worldwide. The atlas of susceptibility, assessed through CTRI values, is an appropriate instrument to prioritize environmental and planning strategies at a regional scale.  相似文献   

Geophysical evidence of the Eastern Marginal Fault of the Cheb Basin (Czech Republic)     

Vratislav Blecha  Tomáš Fischer  Petr Tábořík  Jan Vilhem  Radek Klanica  Jan Valenta  Petra Štěpančíková 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2018,62(4):660-680

The western part of the Bohemian Massif hosts an intersection of two regional fault zones, the SW-NE trending Oh?e/Eger Graben and the NNW-SSE trending Mariánské Lázně Fault, which has been reactivated several times in the geological history and controlled the formation of the Tertiary Cheb Basin. The broader area of the Cheb Basin is also related to permanent seismic activity of M_L 3+ earthquake swarms. The Eastern Marginal Fault of the Cheb Basin (northern segment of the Mariánské Lázně Fault) separates the basin sediments and underlying granites in the SW from the Kru?né Hory/Erzgebirge Mts. crystalline unit in the NE. We describe a detailed geophysical survey targeted to locating the Eastern Marginal Fault and determining its geometry in the depth. The survey was conducted at the Kopanina site near the Nový Kostel focal zone, which shows the strongest seismic activity of the whole Western Bohemia earthquake swarm region. Complex geophysical survey included gravimetry, electrical resistivity tomography, audiomagnetotellurics and seismic refraction. We found that the rocks within the Eastern Marginal Fault show low resistivity, low seismic velocity and density, which indicates their deep fracturing, weathering and higher water content. The dip of the fault in shallow depths is about 60° towards SW. At greater depths, the slope turns to subvertical with dip angle of about 80°. Results of geoelectrical methods show blocky fabric of the Cheb Basin and deep weathering of the granite bedrock, which is consistent with geologic models based on borehole surveys.  相似文献   

Cause of scale inconsistencies in DORIS time series     

Petr Štěpánek  Vratislav Filler 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2018,62(4):562-585

In this paper we analyze the scale of the DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) solutions with respect to DORIS extension of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) for Precise Orbit Determination DPOD2014. The main goal is to explain the scale inconsistencies and to find the optimal solution reaching low-biased and consistent scale time series. Our analysis profits from 4 different strategies based only on the Geodetic Observatory Pecný analysis center solution, using DORIS exchange format data 2.2. A difference in the sequence of the solutions directly corresponds to one of the changes in the solution settings: data elevation dependent weighting, application of data validity indicators and application of phase center - reference point correction. We process multi-satellite and single-satellite solutions for the time period 2011.0–2017.0. Our analysis examines scale inconsistency issues in 2011/2012 and in 2015. The scale increment in 2011/2012 is explained as a result of the concurrence of changes in satellite constellation and change in the provider data validity standards for Cryosat-2 and Jason-2 satellites. The scale increment in 2015 is explained as the effect of change in the standards for phase center - reference center corrections for Saral, Jason-2 and Cryosat-2 satellites. Moreover, comparing the solutions with and without elevation dependent data downweighting using the same elevation cutoff (10°), we found a significant reduction of scale bias and scale variation applying the data downweighting. The data downweighting improved also the station positioning repeatability. We demonstrate that the solution, which is completely free from the additional data associated with observations in DORIS exchange format 2.2 and includes the data downweighting law, eventuates in a consistent scale time series with the lowest offset with respect to DPOD2014 (version 1.0) (12.7 ± 2.3 mm for 2011.0–2017.0). The only remaining scale issue is the part of 2011/2012 increment of around 5 mm, explained by a change in the DORIS satellite constellation.  相似文献   

SlugIn 1.0: A Free Tool for Automated Slug Test Analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Sergio Martos‐Rosillo  Carolina Guardiola‐Albert  Alberto Padilla Benítez  Joaquín Delgado Pastor  Antonio Azcón González  Juan José Durán Valsero 《Ground water》2018,56(3):362-365

The correct characterization of aquifer parameters is essential for water‐supply and water‐quality investigations. Slug tests are widely used for these purposes. While free software is available to interpret slug tests, some codes are not user‐friendly, or do not include a wide range of methods to interpret the results, or do not include automatic, inverse solutions to the test data. The private sector has also generated several good programs to interpret slug test data, but they are not free of charge. The computer program SlugIn 1.0 is available online for free download, and is demonstrated to aid in the analysis of slug tests to estimate hydraulic parameters. The program provides an easy‐to‐use Graphical User Interface. SlugIn 1.0 incorporates automated parameter estimation and facilitates the visualization of several interpretations of the same test. It incorporates solutions for confined and unconfined aquifers, partially penetrating wells, skin effects, shape factor, anisotropy, high hydraulic conductivity formations and the Mace test for large‐diameter wells. It is available in English and Spanish and can be downloaded from the web site of the Geological Survey of Spain. Two field examples are presented to illustrate how the software operates.  相似文献   

Model for multiblock columns subjected to base excitation          下载免费PDF全文

Tamás Ther  László P. Kollár 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(2):418-437

A new model is presented for multiblock columns subjected to earthquakes, which contains an impact and an opening model. Both in the impact and in the opening model, all the possible opening configurations are investigated because it was found that in many practical cases, unexpected patterns may occur. The model is purely mechanical: assuming rigid blocks and classical (inelastic) impact. The effect of energy dissipation during impact was investigated. Using our model in accordance with the literature, it was found that monolithic blocks are more vulnerable to overturning than multiblock systems.  相似文献   

Identifying slope processes over time and their imprint in soils of medium‐high mountains of Central Europe (the Karkonosze Mountains,Poland)          下载免费PDF全文

Jaroslaw Waroszewski  Markus Egli  Dagmar Brandová  Marcus Christl  Cezary Kabala  Malgorzata Malkiewicz  Jakub Kierczak  Bartłomiej Glina  Paweł Jezierski 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(6):1195-1212

Soils in mountainous areas are often polygenetic, developed in slope covers that relate to glacial and periglacial activities of the Pleistocene and Holocene and reflect climatic variations. Landscape development during the Holocene may have been influenced by erosion/solifluction that often started after the Holocene climatic optimum. To trace back soil evolution and its timing, we applied a multi‐methodological approach. This approach helped us to outline scenario of soil transformation. According to our results, some aeolian input must have occurred in the late Pleistocene. During that time and the early Holocene, the soils most likely had features of Cryosols or Leptosols. Physico‐chemical and mineralogical analyses have indicated that the material was denudated (between late Boreal to the Atlantic) from the ridge and upper‐slope positions forming a colluvium at mid‐slope positions. Later, during the Sub‐Boreal, mass wasting of the remains of silt material deposited at the end of the Pleistocene age on the ridge top seems to have occurred. In addition, the cool and moist conditions caused the deposition of a colluvium at the lower‐slope positions. The next phase was characterized by the transformation of Leptosols/Cambisols into Podzols at upper‐slope or shoulder positions and to Albic Cambisols at mid‐slope positions. During the Sub‐Boreal period, Stagnosols started to form at the lower part of the slope catena. Overall, the highest erosion rates were calculated at the upper‐slope position and the lowest rates at mid‐slope sites. Berylium‐10 (¹⁰Be) data showed that the Bs, BC/C were covered during the Holocene by a colluvium with a different geological composition which complicated the calculation of erosion or accumulation rates. The interpretation of erosion and accumulation rates in such multi‐layered materials may, therefore, be hampered. However, the multi‐methodological reconstruction we applied shed light on the soil and landscape evolution of the eastern Karkonosze Mountains. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Extracting water-related features using reflectance data and principal component analysis of Landsat images     

Boglárka Balázs  Tibor Bíró  Gareth Dyke  Sudhir Kumar Singh 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(2):269-284

This study aimed to map water features using a Landsat image rather than traditional land cover. We involved the original bands, spectral indices and principal components (PCs) of a principal component analysis (PCA) as input data, and performed random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) classification with water, saturated soil and non-water categories. The aim was to compare the efficiency of the results based on various input data. Original bands provided 93% overall accuracy (OA) and bands 4–5–7 were the most informative in this analysis. Except for MNDWI (modified normalized differenced water index, with 98% OA), the performance of all water indices was between 60 and 70% (OA). The PCA-based approach conducted on the original bands resulted in the most accurate identification of all classes (with only 1% error in the case of water bodies). We therefore show that both water bodies and saturated soils can be identified successfully using this approach.  相似文献