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21.
The feasibility of two low-carbon society (LCS) scenarios, one with and one without nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS), is evaluated using the AIM/Enduse[Global] model. Both scenarios suggest that achieving a 50% emissions reduction target (relative to 1990 levels) by 2050 is technically feasible if locally suited technologies are introduced and the relevant policies, including necessary financial transfers, are appropriately implemented. In the scenario that includes nuclear and CCS options, it will be vital to consider the risks and acceptance of these technologies. In the scenario without these technologies, the challenge will be how to reduce energy service demand. In both scenarios, the estimated investment costs will be higher in non-Annex I countries than in Annex I countries. Finally, the enhancement of capacity building to support the deployment of locally suited technologies will be central to achieving an LCS. Policy relevance Policies to reduce GHG emissions up to 2050 are critical if the long-term target of stabilizing the climate is to be achieved. From a policy perspective, the cost and social acceptability of the policy used to reduce emissions are two of the key factors in determining the optimal pathways to achieve this. However, the nuclear accident at Fukushima highlighted the risk of depending on large-scale technologies for the provision of energy and has led to a backlash against the use of nuclear technology. It is found that if nuclear and CCS are used it will be technically feasible to halve GHG emissions by 2050, although very costly. However, although the cost of halving emissions will be about the same if neither nuclear nor CCS is used, a 50% reduction in emissions reduction will not be achievable unless the demand for energy service is substantially reduced. 相似文献
22.
WU Wenbin TANG Huajun YANG Peng YOU Liangzhi ZHOU Qingbo CHEN Zhongxin SHIBASAKI Ryosuke 《地理学报》2011,21(1):3-17
This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators, the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. 相似文献
23.
We present the results of the quasi‐static cyclic tensile tests of Cu–Al–Mn shape memory alloy (SMA) bars of 4 and 8 mm diameters to examine their superelasticity and other mechanical properties closely related to seismic applications. The present Cu–Al–Mn SMA bars have achieved the recovery strains of over 8% and the fracture strains of over 17%. Low‐cycle fatigue was observed in neither of the bars. The mechanical properties obtained from the test, along with the lower material cost and higher machinability than Ni–Ti SMAs, demonstrate the high potential of the present Cu–Al–Mn SMA bars to be used in seismic applications. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
24.
This study deals with the biogeography of Antarctic microflora （Antarctica acts as best model to study microbial biogeography） such as cyanobacteria and selected halophiles with special emphasis on Halomonas variabilis and Bacillus licheniformis.Halophiles are known to be resistant not only to salt stress,but also to extreme temperature,pressure,and aridity and they are capable of surviving in harsh environments such as polar regions,deep-sea habitats,and deserts.Many microbes are known to be resistant to hostile environmental conditions,and are capable of surviving in harsh environments.Our group has isolated 444 strains belonging to 28 genera of halophiles from various environments around the world.The 16S rRNA gene sequences revealed that many of the isolated strains from geographically distant habitats having different environmental conditions,were closely related to each other,with some strains possessing 100％ identical sequences.Organisms possessing survival mechanism such as spore formation are usually ubiquitous.The genus Halomonas is represented by potentially endemic strains and the ubiquitous H.variabilis,while spore-forming B.licheniformis showed cosmopolitan distribution.One potentially endemic （moderate endemicity that is regional and/or continental distribution） strain was reported from Syowa station,East Antarctica,and Mario Zucchelli station,West Antarctica,which are geographically separated by 3000 km.Moreover,15 strains having 100％ similarity with B.licheniformis were considered cosmopolitans.The results of this work provide support for the middle-ground model that some microbes have moderate endemicity and others have cosmopolitan distribution.These results will contribute to a greater understanding of microbial biogeography with special emphasis on Antarctica. 相似文献
25.
Satoru Yamamoto Ryosuke Nakamura Tsuneo Matsunaga Yoshiko Ogawa Yoshiaki Ishihara Tomokatsu Morota Naru Hirata Makiko Ohtake Takahiro Hiroi Yasuhiro Yokota Junichi Haruyama 《Icarus》2012,218(1):331-344
The distribution and the geological context of the olivine-rich exposures in the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) Basin on the Moon were investigated based on the spectral data obtained from the Spectral Profiler (SP) and Multiband Imager (MI) onboard the Japanese lunar explorer Kaguya/SELENE. The olivine-rich exposures are found only in the peak rings or central peaks of the Schrödinger basin and Zeeman crater, which are located in the outer region of the SPA Basin and not in the center region. On a localized scale, the olivine-rich materials are exposed on landslide features on the crater walls or sloped wall of the central peaks or the peak rings. Another observational finding is the co-existence of olivine-rich and plagioclase-rich materials on a kilometer scale spanning most of the olivine-rich sites in the Schrödinger basin. Pyroxene-rich materials are found in fresh craters outside the peak rings or the central peaks with olivine-rich materials. Based on these results, the following scenario are proposed: (1) the impact to form the SPA Basin melted a large amount of the lunar upper mantle and crust, and distributed the melted materials to the outer region; (2) local differentiation of melted materials hid the olivine-rich materials in the center region of the SPA Basin; (3) later impacts that formed the Schrödinger and Zeeman craters excavated and exposed the olivine-rich materials to the surface again; and (4) space weathering and regolith gardening obscured the olivine-rich spectra at the exposure sites, but recent, small scale impacts or landslides on the sloped wall exposed fresh olivine-rich materials, allowing the identification of the olivine-rich exposures by spectral remote-sensing. This suggests that several, different scale events play an important role in forming the surface distributions of originally deep-seated materials on the Moon, as well as on other planetary bodies. 相似文献
26.
Olivier S. Barnouin-Jha Andrew F. Cheng Shinsuke Abe Ryosuke Nakamura Jun Saito 《Icarus》2008,198(1):108-124
The surface topography of Asteroid 25143 Itokawa is explored using the LIght Detection And Ranging instrument (LIDAR). The data confirm the presence of a rough highland and a smooth lowland. The highland is dominated by boulders, but also possesses topography associated with surface lineaments and broad surface facets. The boulders ensure that the roughness of the highlands over short distances is typically greater relative to most surfaces on 433 Eros. Over larger distances, Itokawa is always smoother than Eros possibly because of its smaller size and weak rubble-pile structure. The lowlands of Itokawa are very smooth, and are typically devoid of boulders. Some transitional regions midway between the highlands and lowlands also exist. In these areas, craters that retain their regolith fill possess flat floors and resemble “ponds” seen on 433 Eros. Analyses of surface elevation, imagery and a quantitative measure of surface roughness are consistent with regolith flowing downhill from the highlands to fill in the low areas of Itokawa, probably covering up any pre-existing rough terrain. Using this interpretation, we find a minimum 2.3±0.4 m thick layer of regolith in the lowlands, which, if spread evenly across the entire asteroid, corresponds to a 42±1 cm thick layer. It is very difficult to generate this amount of regolith with the population of craters seen on Itokawa. However, an Itokawa composed of several large masses may have retained this regolith during its formation. The presence of such large masses could account for the observed lineaments and what appear to be exposures of bedrock on the largest steep slope observed. 相似文献
27.
基于Logit 模型的世界主要作物播种面积变化模拟 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
农作物播种面积动态变化因其重要性已经引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。从“人-地 关系”中人的角度出发, 利用多元Logit 模型初步建立了全球尺度的农作物播种面积变化模 拟系统, 分析研究了未来30 年内世界主要农作物播种面积变化的数量特征和空间格局。模型建立思路是: 作物播种面积变化是农户作物选择行为的直接结果, 而选择何种作物进行播种是由作物效用决定的。因此, 利用离散选择理论, 选择影响作物效用大小的主要解释变量建立效用函数, 动态模拟农户作物选择行为, 并得到这种选择行为所带来的农作物播种面积变 化的时空特征。模型建立后, 利用联合国粮农组织(FAO) 2001-2003 年统计数据和2001 年MODIS 全球土地覆盖数据产品对模型结果进行验证, 结果表明模型运行可靠, 和实际状况吻合较好, 可以应用于未来情景模拟分析。其后, 以5 年为步长, 模型对世界四大作物(水稻、玉米、小麦和大豆) 在2005-2035 年间的播种面积动态变化进行了模拟, 从全球作物总播种面 积变化差异、四大作物播种面积变化的区域差异和不同区域内四大作物播种面积变化差异等方面进行了分析研究, 结果表明: 不同作物播种面积变化的数量特征和空间格局是不相同的。 虽然目前模型还存在一些不确定性, 但仍然能够在一定程度上为理解现在和未来农业土地利用的复杂动态变化提供帮助, 模拟结果可为有关部门提供决策支持和信息服务。 相似文献
28.
Experimental investigation on cohesionless sandy bank failure resulting from water level rising 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In the last decade, sediment replenishment forming cohesionless sandy banks below dams has become an increasingly common practice in Japan to compensate for sediment deficits downstream. The erosion process of the placed cohesionless sediment is a combination of lateral toe-erosion and the following mass failure. To explore cohesionless bank failure mechanisms, a series of experiments was done in a soil tank using a compacted sandy soil mass exposed to an increasing water level. Two types of uniform sand(D_(50) = 0.40 mm and 0.17 mm) and two bank heights(50 cm and 25 cm) were used under the condition of a constant bank slope of 75°. The three dimensional(3D) geometry of the bank after failure was measured using a handheld 3D scanner. The motion of bank failure was captured using the particle image velocimetry(PIV) technique, and the matric suction was measured by tensiometers. The compacted sandy soil was eroded by loss of matric suction accompanying the rise in water level which subsequently caused rotational slide and cantilever toppling failure due to destabilization of the bank. The effect of erosion protection resulting from the slumped blocks after these failures is discussed in the light of different failure mechanisms. Tensile strength is analyzed by inverse calculation of cantilever toppling failure events. The tensile strength had non-linear relation with degree of saturation and showed a peak.The findings of the study show that it is important to incorporate the non-linear relation of tensile strength into stability analysis of cantilever toppling failure and prediction of tension crack depth within unsaturated cohesionless banks. 相似文献
29.
Ryosuke Takamatsu Kazunori Fujisawa Kazuyuki Nakahata Akira Murakami 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(15):2025-2041
A numerical technique for detecting the number and shape of subsurface cavities is presented, applying the particle filter and the parametric level set method to elastic wave propagation under the ground. When subsurface cavities exist, the elastic wave propagating in the ground is reflected at the boundary faces of the cavities. Observing the velocity of the reflection wave at the surface of a ground that includes multiple cavities and parameterizing the shape of the cavities by the parametric level function, both the number and the shape of the cavities can be identified by the particle filter. Numerical experimentation for detecting multiple cavities is conducted with synthetic observation data. The results show that the proposed technique enables the number of cavities to be identified by the number of peaks in the posterior probabilistic distribution function and solves geometric inverse problems by estimating the shape of the cavities through the parameter identification of the level set function. 相似文献
30.
Ryosuke Sinmyo Elena Bykova Catherine McCammon Ilya Kupenko Vasily Potapkin Leonid Dubrovinsky 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(6):409-417
Magnesium silicate perovskite is the predominant phase in the Earth’s lower mantle, and it is well known that incorporation of iron has a strong effect on its crystal structure and physical properties. To constrain the crystal chemistry of (Mg, Fe)SiO3 perovskite more accurately, we synthesized single crystals of Mg0.946(17)Fe0.056(12)Si0.997(16)O3 perovskite at 26 GPa and 2,073 K using a multianvil press and investigated its crystal structure, oxidation state and iron-site occupancy using single-crystal X-ray diffraction and energy-domain Synchrotron Mössbauer Source spectroscopy. Single-crystal refinements indicate that all iron (Fe2+ and Fe3+) substitutes on the A-site only, where \( {\text{Fe}}^{ 3+ } /\Upsigma {\text{Fe}}\sim 20\,\% \) based on Mössbauer spectroscopy. Charge balance likely occurs through a small number of cation vacancies on either the A- or the B-site. The octahedral tilt angle (Φ) calculated for our sample from the refined atomic coordinates is 20.3°, which is 2° higher than the value calculated from the unit-cell parameters (a = 4.7877 Å, b = 4.9480 Å, c = 6.915 Å) which assumes undistorted octahedra. A compilation of all available single-crystal data (atomic coordinates) for (Mg, Fe)(Si, Al)O3 perovskite from the literature shows a smooth increase of Φ with composition that is independent of the nature of cation substitution (e.g., \( {\text{Mg}}^{ 2+ } - {\text{Fe}}^{ 2+ } \) or \( {\text{Mg}}^{ 2+ } {\text{Si}}^{ 4+ } - {\text{Fe}}^{ 3+ } {\text{Al}}^{ 3+ } \) substitution mechanism), contrary to previous observations based on unit-cell parameter calculations. 相似文献