Study of the Cosmic-Ray Modulation During the Passage of ICMEs and CIRs     

BadruddinEmail author  Anand?Kumar 《Solar physics》2016,291(2):559-580

We compare the cosmic-ray response to interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) during their passage in near-Earth space. We study the relative importance of various structures/features identified during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs observed during Cycle 23 (1995?–?2009). The identified ICME structures are the shock front, the sheath, and the CME ejecta. We isolate the shock arrival time, the passage of the sheath region, the arrival of ejecta, and the end time of their passage. Similarly, we isolate the CIR arrival, the associated forward shock, the stream interface, and the reverse shock during the passage of a CIR. For the cosmic-ray intensity, we utilize the data from high counting rate neutron monitors. In addition to neutron monitor data, we utilize near-simultaneous and same time-resolution data of interplanetary plasma and field, namely the solar-wind velocity, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector, and its variance. Further, we also utilize some derived interplanetary parameters. We apply the method of the superposed-epoch analysis. As the plasma and field properties are different during the passage of different structures, both in ICMEs and CIRs, we systematically vary the epoch time in our superposed-epoch analysis one by one. In this way, we study the role and effects of each of the identified individual structures/features during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs. Relating the properties of various structures and the corresponding variations in plasma and field parameters with changes of the cosmic-ray intensity, we identify the relative importance of the plasma/field parameters in influencing the amplitude and time profiles of the cosmic-ray intensity variations during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs.  相似文献   

基于C4.5决策树算法的道路结冰预报模型构建及应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

史达伟  耿焕同  吉辰  黄超 《气象科学》2015,35(2):204-209

道路结冰是气象上规定的主要灾害性天气之一,准确认识道路结冰发生规律并科学有效地预报是防灾减灾的关键问题。以影响道路结冰的日积雪深度、日最低气温、日降水量等气象要素为主要因子,将是否结冰抽象成二元分类问题,借助数据挖掘中C4.5决策树算法进行分类分析,得到便于预报员使用的预报道路结冰规则集。在实验部分,选取2004—2013年连云港和嘉定为例,用前8 a的连云港(嘉定)地区道路结冰数据样本进行分类规则的学习,从而得到适合连云港(嘉定)地区的4(3)条预报道路结冰规则集,然后用剩下2 a的数据进行检验,准确率高达96.82%(94.87%)。实验表明采用C4.5决策树算法构建的道路结冰预报模型不仅预报准确率高、易解释、方便预报员直接使用,而且预报规则与道路结冰现象的天气过程及理论一致。  相似文献   

优化网格法在小面积区域雷暴特征分析中的应用     

石湘波  张其林  丁烨毅  邵程远  周溥佳 《气象科学》2015,35(3):334-339

为满足小面积区域(10 000 km²左右)雷电防御工作准确化、精细化的要求, 选取人工观测半径用以优化1 km×1 km网格的雷电参数。实例分析表明:优化网格法可以修正1 km×1 km相邻网格的年平均地闪密度值的大幅波动, 避免相邻网格突变值的出现。也可以使1 km×1 km网格的雷电日更符合气象意义。并可以准确分析用于表征区域强雷暴分布的平均单位雷电日地闪密度和最大单位雷电日地闪密度等雷电参数。  相似文献   

气溶胶对雷暴云起电以及闪电发生率影响的数值模拟   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

师正  谭涌波  唐慧强  杨忆  彭琳  郭秀峰  陈浩然 《大气科学》2015,39(5):941-952

本文利用二维耦合气溶胶模块的雷暴云起电模式,结合一次南京雷暴个例,进行250 m分辨率雷暴云起电模拟实验,探讨了气溶胶浓度对雷暴云空间电荷分布以及闪电发生率的影响。在这个气溶胶模块中,假定一个三模态的气溶胶对数分布,考虑了气溶胶活化过程。结果显示:(1)随着气溶胶浓度增大,雷暴云电荷结构保持为三极型。(2)当气溶胶浓度从50 cm-3增加至1000 cm-3时,水成物粒子浓度上升,雷暴云电荷量和闪电发生率增加明显。(3)气溶胶浓度在1000~3000 cm-3范围时,云水竞争限制了冰晶的增长,导致雷暴云上部主正电荷堆电荷量降低。云滴和霰粒子浓度缓慢上升促进中部主负电荷堆和底部次正电荷堆电荷量继续增大。闪电发生率保持稳定。(4)当气溶胶浓度大于3000 cm-3时,水成物粒子浓度稳定,云内的电荷量以及闪电发生率保持为一定量级。  相似文献   

SD-WACCM模式对平流层化学组分的模拟研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

潘晨  朱彬  施春华  康汉青 《气象科学》2015,35(1):9-16

利用美国大气研究中心开发的全球气候模式,对2008年平流层的化学组分(HNO₃、HCl和O₃)进行了模拟研究,并结合了MLS卫星资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,模式可以较好地再现平流层的各化学组分的时空分布状况。并选取了8个区域,将模拟的2008—2009年O₃柱浓度与臭氧监测仪资料对比,结果表明,模式可以较好地再现全球O₃总量的季节变化情况。  相似文献   

The Effects of Land Cover Change on Regional Climate over the Eastern Part of Northwest China          下载免费PDF全文

HAN Zhen-Yu  GAO Xue-Jie  SHI Ying  XU Ying 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(3):153-159

A regional climate model(Reg CM4) is employed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China(ENW) in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The results indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was characterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature(within ~0.3°C) and slight regional changes in precipitation(within ~15%) in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures increased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature increase in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.  相似文献   

夏季云顶高于对流层顶事件对东亚天气型及上对流层-下平流层大气结构的影响   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

施春华  常舒捷  沈新勇  郭栋  刘仁强 《大气科学学报》2015,38(6):804-810

采用A-Train系列卫星的AURA/MLS水汽、温度资料,CALIPSO/CALIOP云物理资料,结合ECMWF气象再分析资料,分析了东亚地区云顶高于对流层顶事件(Cloud Top Above the Tropopause,CTAT)的区域分布,及其对上对流层-下平流层(Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere,UTLS)水汽和温度结构的影响。结果表明:亚洲季风区的夏季CTAT发生率是30%~55%,为全球最强区域;东北亚的夏季CTAT发生率是15%~20%,为中纬度最强分布区。以CTAT为指标的合成结果表明:15~30°N的东亚-西太平洋UTLS,水汽呈"上干下湿"的异常分布,温度呈"上冷下暖"的异常分布,该结构与该区域热带气旋合成的结果一致,说明热带气旋是该区域CTAT形成的主要天气系统;35~50°N的东北亚UTLS,水汽呈"上干下湿"的异常分布,温度呈"上暖下冷"的异常分布,该结构与该区域温带气旋合成的结果一致,说明温带气旋是该区域CTAT形成的主要天气系统。  相似文献   

Hot deontology and cold consequentialism – an empirical exploration of ethical reasoning among climate change negotiators     

Manjana?MilkoreitEmail author 《Climatic change》2015,133(3):397-406

Philosophers, political theorists and cognitive scientists have applied the traditional distinction between deontology and consequentialism to determine ethical responsibilities – usually of states – to take action in response to climate change. Most of this work is either purely conceptual or based on experiments with individuals, who are not part of the global political process. This paper makes two contributions to this debate. First, based on interview data I describe existing patterns of ethical reasoning among global political actors rather than groups selected for lab experiments. Integrating theories of risk perceptions, international relations and moral philosophy, I identify both deontological and consequentialist cognitive patterns, and examine their constitutive elements. My second contribution concerns the role of emotion in moral reasoning. Using the same qualitative data, I offer support for a controversial argument about the emotional nature of deontological reasoning. Further, I argue that many negotiators experience climate change not as an impersonal threat posed by the environment, but rather as an “up, close and personal” threat, over which other negotiation participants have significant control.  相似文献   

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Feng?Shi  Quansheng?GeEmail author  Bao?Yang  Jianping?Li  Fengmei?Yang  Fredrik?Charpentier?Ljungqvist  Olga?Solomina  Takeshi?Nakatsuka  Ninglian?Wang  Sen?Zhao  Chenxi?Xu  Keyan?Fang  Masaki?Sano  Guoqiang?Chu  Zexin?Fan  Narayan?P.?Gaire  Muhammad?Usama?Zafar 《Climatic change》2015,131(4):663-676

To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.  相似文献   

Evolution of aerosol vertical distribution during particulate pollution events in Shanghai          下载免费PDF全文

张云伟  张群  冷春鹏  张德芹  成天涛  陶俊  张仁健  贺千山 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(3):385-399

A set of micro pulse lidar(MPL)systems operating at 532 nm was used for ground-based observation of aerosols in Shanghai in 2011.Three typical particulate pollution events(e.g.,haze)were examined to determine the evolution of aerosol vertical distribution and the planetary boundary layer(PBL)during these pollution episodes.The aerosol vertical extinction coefficient(VEC)at any given measured altitude was prominently larger during haze periods than that before or after the associated event.Aerosols originating from various source regions exerted forcing to some extent on aerosol loading and vertical layering,leading to different aerosol vertical distribution structures.Aerosol VECs were always maximized near the surface owing to the potential influence of local pollutant emissions.Several peaks in aerosol VECs were found at altitudes above 1 km during the dust-and bioburning-influenced haze events.Aerosol VECs decreased with increasing altitude during the local-polluted haze event,with a single maximum in the surface atmosphere.PM2.5 increased slowly while PBL and visibility decreased gradually in the early stages of haze events;subsequently,PM2.5 accumulated and was exacerbated until serious pollution bursts occurred in the middle and later stages.The results reveal that aerosols from different sources impact aerosol vertical distributions in the atmosphere and that the relationship between PBL and pollutant loadings may play an important role in the formation of pollution.  相似文献