Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework     

Barbara A. Muhling  Carlos F. Gaitán  Charles A. Stock  Vincent S. Saba  Desiree Tommasi  Keith W. Dixon 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(2):349-372

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.  相似文献   

The Oeschinensee rock avalanche,Bernese Alps,Switzerland: a co-seismic failure 2300 years ago?     

Patrizia Köpfli  Lorenz M. Grämiger  Jeffrey R. Moore  Christof Vockenhuber  Susan Ivy-Ochs 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2018,111(1-2):205-219

Landslide deposits dam Lake Oeschinen (Oeschinensee), located above Kandersteg, Switzerland. However, past confusion differentiating deposits of multiple landslide events has confounded efforts to quantify the volume, age, and failure dynamics of the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. Here we combine field and remote mapping, topographic reconstruction, cosmogenic surface exposure dating, and numerical runout modeling to quantify salient parameters of the event. Differences in boulder lithology and deposit morphology reveal that the landslide body damming Oeschinensee consists of debris from both an older rock avalanche, possibly Kandertal, as well as the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. We distinguish a source volume for the Oeschinensee event of 37 Mm³, resulting in an estimated deposit volume of 46 Mm³, smaller than previous estimates that included portions of the Kandertal mass. Runout modeling revealed peak and average rock avalanche velocities of 65 and 45 m/s, respectively, and support a single-event failure scenario. ³⁶Cl surface exposure dating of deposited boulders indicates a mean age for the rock avalanche of 2.3 ± 0.2 kyr. This age coincides with the timing of a paleo-seismic event identified from lacustrine sediments in Swiss lakes, suggesting an earthquake trigger. Our results help clarify the hazard and geomorphic effects of rare, large rock avalanches in alpine settings.  相似文献   

Measured and perceived visual complexity: a comparative study among three online map providers     

Susan Schnur  Kenan Bektaş 《制图学和地理信息科学》2018,45(3):238-254

We present a study on human perception of map complexity, with the objective of better understanding design decisions that may lead to undesirable levels of complexity in web maps. We compare three complexity metrics to human ratings of complexity obtained through a user survey. Specifically, we use two algorithmic approaches published by others, which measure feature congestion (FC) and subband entropy (SE), as well as our own approach of counting object types rather than individual objects. We compare these metrics with each other as well as with human complexity ratings for three maps of the same area from map providers Google Maps, Bing Maps, and OpenStreetMap. Each map design is assessed at three different scales (levels of detail). We find that (1) the FC and SE metrics appear to be adequate predictors of what humans consider complex; (2) object-type counts are slightly less successful at predicting human-rated complexity, implying that clutter is more important in perceived complexity than diversity of symbology; and (3) generalization choices do impact human complexity ratings. These findings contribute to our understanding of what makes a map complex, with implications for designing maps that are easy to use.  相似文献   

Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation,sea-level rise,and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation     

Simon M. Mudd  Susan M. Howell  James T. Morris 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

Salt marshes accrete both organic and inorganic sediments. Here we present analytical and numerical models of salt marsh sedimentation that, in addition to capturing inorganic processes, explicitly account for above- and belowground organic processes including root growth and decay of organic carbon. The analytical model is used to examine the bias introduced by organic processes into proxy records of sedimentation, namely ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb. We find that accretion rates estimated using ²¹⁰Pb will be less than accretion rates estimated using the ¹³⁷Cs peak in steadily accreting marshes if (1) carbon decay is significant and (2) data for ²¹⁰Pb extend below the ¹³⁷Cs peak. The numerical model expands upon the analytical model by including belowground processes such as compaction and root growth, and by explicitly tracking the evolution of aboveground biomass and its effect on sedimentation rates. Using the numerical model we explore how marsh stratigraphy responds to sediment supply and the rate of sea-level rise. It is calibrated and tested using an extensive data set of both marsh stratigraphy and measurements of vegetation dynamics in a Spartina alterniflora marsh in South Carolina, USA. We find that carbon accumulation in marshes is nonlinearly related to both the supply of inorganic sediment and the rate of sea-level rise; carbon accumulation increases with sea-level rise until sea-level rise reaches a critical rate that drowns the marsh vegetation and halts carbon accumulation. The model predicts that changes in carbon storage resulting from changing sediment supply or sea-level rise are strongly dependent on the background sediment supply: if inorganic sediment supply is reduced in an already sediment poor marsh the storage of organic carbon will increase to a far greater extent than in a sediment-rich marsh, provided that the rate of sea-level rise does not exceed a threshold. These results imply that altering sediment supply to estuaries (e.g., by damming upstream rivers or altering littoral sediment transport) could lead to significant changes in the carbon budgets of coastal salt marshes.  相似文献   

The human uses of flint and chert. G. De G. Sieveking and M.H. Newcomer Editors, 1987, Cambridge University Press,xiii + 263 pp., $79.50 (clothbound)     

Susan C. Vehik 《Geoarchaeology》1988,3(4):307-307

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The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Wind</Emphasis>/EPACT Proton Event Catalog (1996 – 2016)     

Rositsa Miteva  Susan W. Samwel  Marcus V. Costa-Duarte 《Solar physics》2018,293(2):27

We present the finalized catalog of solar energetic proton events detected by the Wind/EPACT instrument over the period 1996?–?2016. Onset times, peak times, peak proton intensity and onset-to-peak proton fluence are evaluated for the two available energy channels, at about 25 and 50 MeV. We describe the procedure utilized to identify the proton events and to relate them to their solar origin (in terms of flares and coronal mass ejections). The statistical relationships between the energetic protons and their origin (linear and partial correlation analysis) are reported and discussed in view of earlier findings. Finally, the different trends found in the first 8 years of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 are discussed.  相似文献   

Factors influencing biodeposit production by the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii     

Kevin J. Collier  Susan J. Clearwater  Paula H. M. W. Neijenhuis  Susanna A. Wood 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2018,52(1):1-15

Laboratory experiments on the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii were used to investigate the short-term effects (7–8 days) of food type on rates of biodeposition and benthic substrate respiration. Post-feeding biodeposition rates ranged from 0.34 to 1.52?mg?g^?1?h^?1 (mean?=?0.50?mg g^?1?h^?1) and were unaffected by the addition of toxin-producing Microcystis. Addition of suspended sediment (30?mg?L^?1) visibly altered substrate composition, and increased total and inorganic biodeposit production rates by 24–33% compared to mussels fed commercial phytoplankton stock. Biodeposition rates of mussels in lake bed substrates were 38% higher than those in silica sand for identical feeding regimes, suggesting that a significant proportion of material produced in this experiment could have been derived from feeding on organic matter in the lake bed sediments. Respiration rates were higher in treatments with Microcystis but were unaffected by the presence of mussels. This laboratory study suggests that biodeposition by E. menziesii is resilient to short-term exposure to Microcystis, and highlights the ability of mussels to alter benthic substrate composition by incorporating suspended sediment into substrates.  相似文献   

How U.S. ocean policy and market power can reform the coral reef wildlife trade     

Brian N. Tissot  Barbara A. Best  Eric H. Borneman  Andrew W. Bruckner  Cara H. Cooper  Heather D’Agnes  Timothy P. Fitzgerald  Amanda Leland  Susan Lieberman  Amy Mathews Amos  Rashid Sumaila  Teresa M. Telecky  Frazer McGilvray  Brian J. Plankis  Andrew L. Rhyne  Glynnis G. Roberts  Benjamin Starkhouse  Todd C. Stevenson 《Marine Policy》2010

As the world’s largest importer of marine ornamental species for the aquaria, curio, home décor, and jewelry industries, the United States has an opportunity to leverage its considerable market power to promote more sustainable trade and reduce the effects of ornamental trade stress on coral reefs worldwide. Evidence indicates that collection of some coral reef animals for these trades has caused virtual elimination of local populations, major changes in age structure, and promotion of collection practices that destroy reef habitats. Management and enforcement of collection activities in major source countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines remain weak. Strengthening US trade laws and enforcement capabilities combined with increasing consumer and industry demand for responsible conservation can create strong incentives for improving management in source countries. This is particularly important in light of the March 2010 failure of the parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) to take action on key groups of corals.  相似文献   

Quantitative Analysis of Paleoatmospheric CO2 Level Based on Stomatal Characters of Fossil Ginkgo from Jurassic to Cretaceous in China   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

SUN Bainian  XIAO Liang  XIE Sanping  DENG Shenghui  WANG Yongdong  JIA Hui  Susan?Turner 《《地质学报》英文版》2007,81(6):931-939

A better theoretical and practical understanding of the linkage between paleo-CO2 and climate during geological history is important to enhance the sustainable development of modern human society. Development in plant physiology since the 1980s has led to the realization that fossil plants can serve as a proxy for paleoatmosphere and paleobiosphere. As a relict gymnosperm with evolutionary stasis, Ginkgo is well suited for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. This paper analyzes fossil Ginkgo species from integrated strata in the north of China using anatomic data of plant physiology. Using stomatal parameters, a trend for the paleo-CO2 level during the Early-Middle Jurassic and the Early Cretaceous was obtained, which is consistent with the estimates by GEOCARB. The trend is also similar to that of Mean Global Surface Temperature in geological time. Compared with three other atmospheric CO2 concentration parameters, the trend of paleo-CO2 level based on the stomatal parameter of the fossil Ginkgo specimens from three contiguous strata is more exact.  相似文献   

Introduction     

Susan Friedlander  Kolumban Hutter 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-3)

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