Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea     

P. Sebastio  C. Guedes Soares 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(3-4):576-584

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of sea surface dimethylsulfide in the North Pacific during 1970s to 2000s     

Y.W. Watanabe  H. Yoshinari  A. Sakamoto  Y. Nakano  N. Kasamatsu  T. Midorikawa  T. Ono 《Marine Chemistry》2007,103(3-4):347-358

We proposed an empirical equation of sea surface dimethylsulfide (DMS, nM) using sea surface temperature (SST, K), sea surface nitrate (SSN, μM) and latitude (L, °N) to reconstruct the sea surface flux of DMS over the North Pacific between 25°N and 55°N: ln DMS = 0.06346 · SST − 0.1210 · SSN − 14.11 · cos(L) − 6.278 (R² = 0.63, p < 0.0001). Applying our algorithm to climatological hydrographic data in the North Pacific, we reconstructed the climatological distributions of DMS and its flux between 25 °N and 55 °N. DMS generally increased eastward and northward, and DMS in the northeastern region became to 2–5 times as large as that in the southwestern region. DMS in the later half of the year was 2–4 times as large as that in the first half of the year. Moreover, applying our algorithm to hydrographic time series datasets in the western North Pacific from 1971 to 2000, we found that DMS in the last three decades has shown linear increasing trends of 0.03 ± 0.01 nM year^− 1 in the subpolar region, and 0.01 ± 0.001 nM year^− 1 in the subtropical region, indicating that the annual flux of DMS from sea to air has increased by 1.9–4.8 μmol m^− 2 year^− 1. The linear increase was consistent with the annual rate of increase of 1% of the climatological averaged flux in the western North Pacific in the last three decades.  相似文献   

Temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer over the thermally inhomogeneous underlying surface     

V. P. Kukharets  H. G. Nalbandyan 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2006,42(4):456-462

The influence of both spatial and temporal temperature inhomogeneities of the underlying surface on the temperature field in an unstably stratified atmospheric surface layer is considered. The methods of correlation and spectral analyses are proposed to estimate statistical characteristics of surface-air temperature fluctuations caused by both turbulent mixing and inhomogeneities in the temperature of the underlying surface. Analysis of experimental data obtained from measurements in the atmospheric surface layer yields estimates for the contribution made by the time-dependent thermal properties of the underlying surface to the total variance of air-temperature fluctuations. It is shown that the additional air-temperature fluctuations generated by surface-temperature inhomogeneities and unrelated to shear flow may reach 70% and 30% of the total variance of measured fluctuations under variable cloudiness and clear skies, respectively. For the height z = 2 m within the wave-number range 2 × 10^?3 rad m^?1 < k < 0.1 rad m^?1, the contribution made by a spatial surface-temperature inhomogeneity to the variance of air-temperature fluctuations does not exceed 10% of the total variance. Correlation and spectral analyses of experimental data make it possible to isolate the spectra of properly turbulent fluctuations from the measured fluctuations and thus to obtain more accurate values of the universal function of similarity theory for temperature in the range of small wave numbers beyond the inertial range.  相似文献   

Thermohydrodynamics of the ocean decay of nonlinear oscillations in a bounded basin of variable depth     

A. E. Bukatov  D. D. Zav’yalov  T. A. Solomakha 《Physical Oceanography》2006,16(2):69-76

We study the time decay of surges of a liquid in a round shallow-water basin of variable depth. The dependence of the logarithmic decrement of oscillations on the bottom topography and wind velocity is analyzed. The role of convective acceleration and bottom friction in the formation of both the level of vertical displacement of the surface of the basin and the velocity field of horizontal wave currents is estimated. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 3–11, March–April, 2006.  相似文献   

Tidally incised valleys on tropical carbonate shelves: An example from the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia     

Peter T. Harris  Andrew Heap  Vicki Passlow  Michael Hughes  James Daniell  Mark Hemer  Ole Anderson 《Marine Geology》2005,220(1-4):181-204

The formation of incised valleys on continental shelves is generally attributed to fluvial erosion under low sea level conditions. However, there are exceptions. A multibeam sonar survey at the northern end of Australia's Great Barrier Reef, adjacent to the southern edge of the Gulf of Papua, mapped a shelf valley system up to 220 m deep that extends for more than 90 km across the continental shelf. This is the deepest shelf valley yet found in the Great Barrier Reef and is well below the maximum depth of fluvial incision that could have occurred under a − 120 m, eustatic sea level low-stand, as what occurred on this margin during the last ice age. These valleys appear to have formed by a combination of reef growth and tidal current scour, probably in relation to a sea level at around 30–50 m below its present position.

Tidally incised depressions in the valley floor exhibit closed bathymetric contours at both ends. Valley floor sediments are mainly calcareous muddy, gravelly sand on the middle shelf, giving way to well-sorted, gravely sand containing a large relict fraction on the outer shelf. The valley extends between broad platform reefs and framework coral growth, which accumulated through the late Quaternary, coincides with tidal current scour to produce steep-sided (locally vertical) valley walls. The deepest segments of the valley were probably the sites of lakes during the last ice age, when Torres Strait formed an emergent land-bridge between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Numerical modeling predicts that the strongest tidal currents occur over the deepest, outer-shelf segment of the valley when sea level is about 40–50 m below its present position. These results are consistent with a Pleistocene age and relict origin of the valley.

Based on these observations, we propose a new conceptual model for the formation of tidally incised shelf valleys. Tidal erosion on meso- to macro-tidal, rimmed carbonate shelves is enhanced during sea level rise and fall when a tidal, hydraulic pressure gradient is established between the shelf-lagoon and the adjacent ocean basin. Tidal flows attain a maximum, and channel incision is greatest, when a large hydraulic pressure gradient coincides with small channel cross sections. Our tidal-incision model may explain the observation of other workers, that sediment is exported from the Great Barrier Reef shelf to the adjacent ocean basins during intermediate (rather than last glacial maximum) low-stand, sea level positions. The model may apply to other rimmed shelves, both modern and ancient.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation of forces and geometry of a net cage in uniform flow   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Lader  P.F. Enerhaug  B. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2005,30(1):79-84

A scale model of a flexible circular net with different weights attached to the bottom was tested in a flume tank. Global forces and net deformation were measured for different steady current velocities. Three different sizes of bottom weights were used in the tests. The results from these tests are presented and discussed with the emphasis on the dependency between the forces and the geometry. Comparison is also made to empirical based formulas for calculation of drag and lift forces on net structures. Findings show that i) the forces on, and deformation of a flexible net structure are mutually highly dependent on each other; ii) estimates of global forces on a flexible net structure calculated using simple drag formulas derived from stiff net panel experiments give large errors when compared to experimental measurements; iii) numerical models taking into account the dependency between force and deformation should be used to obtain accurate estimates of forces on flexible net structures; and iv) the forces on a flexible net structure are dependent on Reynolds number, and their dependency are similar to that of a regular cylinder.  相似文献   

The dynamic behaviour of a river-dominated tidal inlet, River Murray, Australia     

B. Shuttleworth  A. Woidt  T. Paparella  S. Herbig  D. Walker   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,64(4):131

Australia's largest river, the River Murray, discharges to the southern ocean through a coastal lagoon and river-dominated tidal inlet. Increased water extractions upstream for irrigation have led to significantly reduced flows at the mouth and, as a result, the area is undergoing rapid change, particularly with regard to the rate at which sediment is being transported into the lagoon. Based on detailed and accurate bathymetric surveys it has been possible to estimate that the rate of lagoon in-filling is of the order of 100,000 m³ per year for the period June 2000 to May 2003, although the actual rate shows significant year to year variability. Dredging of the lagoon commenced in 2000 in an attempt to reverse the trend.In an effort to understand the behaviour of the inlet a one-dimensional numerical model of the inlet has been developed. The model extends the original of van de Kreeke by including a dynamic inlet throat area based on predicted river flows and a sediment transport module to predict the resulting net sediment transport. Comparisons with water level data collected on both the ocean and lagoon sides of the mouth have shown that the model is able to predict the attenuation and lag of the tidal signal reasonably well. The sediment transport model was based on predicted sediment concentrations in the surf zone and was found to predict the rate of sediment in-filling to an acceptable level of accuracy. It is envisaged that the model will be a useful management tool, especially since it is possible to manipulate river discharges to the mouth.  相似文献   

Variability of organic δC and C/N in the Mersey Estuary, U.K. and its implications for sea-level reconstruction studies     

Graham P. Wilson  Angela L. Lamb  Melanie J. Leng  Silvia Gonzalez  David Huddart 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,64(4):685-698

Microfossil analysis (e.g. diatoms, foraminifera and pollen) represents the cornerstone of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstruction because their distribution in the contemporary inter-tidal zone is principally controlled by ground elevation within the tidal frame. A combination of poor microfossil preservation and a limited range in the sediment record may severely restrict the accuracy of resulting RSL reconstructions. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis of inter-tidal sediments have shown some potential as coastal palaeoenvironmental proxies. Here we assess their viability for reconstructing RSL change by examining patterns of organic δ¹³C and C/N values in a modern estuarine environment. δ¹³C and C/N analysis of bulk organic inter-tidal sediments and vegetation, as well as suspended and bedload organic sediments of the Mersey Estuary, U.K., demonstrate that the two main sources of organic carbon to surface saltmarsh sediments (terrestrial vegetation and tidal-derived particulate organic matter) have distinctive δ¹³C and C/N signatures. The resulting relationship between ground elevation within the tidal frame and surface sediment δ¹³C and C/N is unaffected by decompositional changes. The potential of this technique for RSL reconstruction is demonstrated by the analysis of part of an early Holocene sediment core from the Mersey Estuary. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis is less time consuming than microfossil analysis and is likely to provide continuous records of RSL change.  相似文献   

An unsteady wave driver for narrowbanded waves: modeling nearshore circulation driven by wave groups     

Andrew B. Kennedy  James T. Kirby   《Coastal Engineering》2003,48(4):257-275

In this paper, we derive an unsteady refraction–diffraction model for narrowbanded water waves for use in computing coupled wave–current motion in the nearshore. The end result is a variable coefficient, nonlinear Schrödinger-type wave driver (describing the envelope of narrow-banded incident waves) coupled to forced nonlinear shallow water equations (describing steady or unsteady mean flows driven by the short-wave field). Comparisons with experimental data show that good accuracy can be obtained for cases of nonbreaking wave transformation. Numerical simulations show that the interaction of wave groups with longshore topographic nonuniformities generates strong edge wave resonances, providing a generating mechanism for low-order edge waves.  相似文献   

Time domain modelling of the transient asymmetric flooding of Ro-Ro ships   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

T. A. Santos  I. E. Winkle  C. Guedes Soares   《Ocean Engineering》2002,29(6):1428-688

This work aims at contributing to improve knowledge on transient asymmetric flooding through theoretical and experimental research. First, a time domain theoretical model of ship motions and flooding is described. Results from experimental work are presented evidencing that transient asymmetric flooding may cause the capsizing of a Ro-Ro shaped barge. The theoretical model is used to predict the capsize of the Ro-Ro shaped barge. Reasonable agreement between experimental and theoretical results was found. Finally, a review of the European Gateway accident is given and the theoretical model is applied to the study of this type of accident. The conclusion is that this theoretical model, together with an accurate modelling of the flooding of machinery compartments, reproduces successfully the capsizing of the European Gateway due to transient asymmetric flooding. Therefore, the internal arrangement of Ro-Ro ships should be carefully studied at the design stage in order to avoid this phenomenon.  相似文献