Developing a hybrid multi‐model for peak flood forecasting     

Yupa Chidthong  Hitoshi Tanaka  Seree Supharatid 《水文研究》2009,23(12):1725-1738

The present study aims to develop a hybrid multi‐model using the soft computing approach. The model is a combination of a fuzzy logic, artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA). While neural networks are low‐level computational structures that perform well dealing with raw data, fuzzy logic deal with reasoning on a higher level by using linguistic information acquired from domain experts. However, fuzzy systems lack the ability to learn and cannot adjust themselves to a new environment. Moreover, experts occasionally make mistakes and thus some rules used in a system may be false. A network type structure of the present hybrid model is a multi‐layer feed‐forward network, the main part is a fuzzy system based on the first‐order Sugeno fuzzy model with a fuzzification and a defuzzification processes. The consequent parameters are determined by least square method. The back‐propagation is applied to adjust weights of network. Then, the antecedent parameters of the membership function are updated accordingly by the gradient descent method. The GA was applied to select the fuzzy rule. The hybrid multi‐model was used to forecast the flood level at Chiang Mai (under the big flood 2005) and the Koriyama flood (2003) in Japan. The forecasting results are evaluated using standard global goodness of fit statistic, efficient index (EI), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the peak flood error. Moreover, the results are compared to the results of a neuro‐genetic model (NGO) and ANFIS model using the same input and output variables. It was found that the hybrid multi‐model can be used successfully with an efficiency index (EI) more than 0·95 (for Chiang Mai flood up to 12 h ahead forecasting) and more than 0·90 (for Koriyama flood up to 8 h ahead forecasting). In general, all of three models can predict the water level with satisfactory results. However, the hybrid model gave the best flood peak estimation among the three models. Therefore, the use of fuzzy rule base, which is selected by GA in the hybrid multi‐model helps to improve the accuracy of flood peak. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Defining hydrochemical evolution of streamflow through flowpath dynamics in Kawakami headwater catchment,Central Japan     

Kasdi Subagyono  Tadashi Tanaka  Yohei Hamada  Maki Tsujimura 《水文研究》2005,19(10):1939-1965

The hydrochemical behaviour of catchments is often investigated by inferring stream chemistry through identification of source areas involved in hydrograph separation analysis, yet its dynamic evolution of hydrologic pathways has received little attention. Intensive hydrometric and hydrochemical measurements were performed during two different storms on March 29, 2001 and August 21–22, 2001 to define hydrochemical evolution under the dynamic of flow pathways in a 5·2 ha first‐order drainage of the Kawakami experimental basin (KEB), Central Japan, a forested headwater catchment with various soil depths (1·8 to 5 m) overlying late Neogene of volcanic bedrocks. The hydraulic potential distribution and flow lines data showed that the change in flow direction, which was controlled by rainfall amount and antecedent wetness of the soil profile, agreed well with the hydrochemical change across the slope segment during the storm. Hydrograph separation predicted by end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) using Ca²⁺ and SiO₂ showed that near surface riparian, hillslope soil water and deep riparian groundwater were important in stream flow generation. The evidence of decrease in solutes concentration at a depth of 1 m in the hillslope and 0·6 m in the near surface riparian during peak storm suggested a flushing of high solutes concentration. Most of the solutes accumulated in the deep riparian groundwater zone, which was due to prominent downward flow and agreed well with the residence time. The distinct flow pathways and chemistry between the near surface riparian and deep riparian groundwater zones and the linkage hillslope aquifer and near surface riparian reservoir, which controls rapid flow and solutes flushing during the storm event, are in conflict with the typical assumption that the whole riparian zone resets flow pathways and chemical signature of hillslope soil water, as has been reported in a previous study. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A deficit of faint red galaxies in the possible large-scale structures around the RDCS J1252.9−2927 cluster at z= 1.24     

Masayuki Tanaka  Tadayuki Kodama  Masaru Kajisawa  Richard Bower  Ricardo Demarco  Alexis Finoguenov  Chris Lidman  Piero Rosati 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,377(3):1206-1214

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Evaluation of the resistance of coastal Pinus thunbergii Parlat. forests to the tsunami fluid force in Japan     

Torita  Hiroyuki  Tanaka  Norio 《Natural Hazards》2019,96(3):1141-1152

Natural Hazards - Coastal forests can protect coastal areas from the effects of tsunamis. However, the coastal forests of Tohoku were destroyed by the Great East Japan Tsunami, which was triggered...  相似文献   

A Method to Suppress Isobaric and Polyatomic Interferences for Measurements of Highly Siderophile Elements in Desilicified Geological Samples     

Xiaoyu Zhou  Ryoji Tanaka  Masahiro Yamanaka  Chie Sakaguchi  Eizo Nakamura 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2019,43(4):611-633

Sample decomposition using inverse aqua regia at elevated temperatures and pressures (e.g., Carius tube or high‐pressure asher) is the most common method used to extract highly siderophile elements (HSEs: Ru, Rh, Pd, Re, Os, Ir, Pt and Au) from geological samples. Recently, it has been recognised that additional HF desilicification is necessary to better recover HSEs, potentially contained within silicate or oxide minerals in mafic samples, which cannot be dissolved solely by inverse aqua regia. However, the abundance of interfering elements tends to increase in the eluent when conventional ion‐exchange purification procedures are applied to desilicified samples. In this study, we developed an improved purification method to determine HSEs in desilicified samples. This method enables the reduction of the ratios of isobaric and polyatomic interferences, relative to the measured intensities of HSE isotope masses, to less than a few hundred parts per million. Furthermore, the total procedural blanks are either comparable to or lower than conventional methods. Thus, this method allows accurate and precise HSE measurements in mafic and ultramafic geological samples, without the need for interference corrections. Moreover, the problem of increased interfering elements, such as Zr for Pd and Cr for Ru, is circumvented for the desilicified samples.  相似文献   

Mineralogical and Geochemical Characteristics of the Utanobori Gold Deposit in Northern Hokkaido,Japan     

Thomas T. Sorulen  Ryohei Takahashi  So Tanaka  Kana Suzuki  Akira Imai  Yasushi Watanabe  Shingo Kikuchi 《Resource Geology》2019,69(4):402-429

The Utanobori gold deposit is a low‐sulfidation, epithermal vein‐type deposit located in northern Hokkaido, Japan. The deposit is hosted by conglomerate, sandstone, and tuff of the Middle to Late Miocene Esashi Formation. These rocks were hydrothermally altered. Silica sinters and quartz‐adularia veins are common in the deposit. The quartz‐adularia veins either contain a ginguro band, which corresponds to the main gold‐bearing vein (Type 1 Veins), or do not contain a ginguro band but contain minor adularia (Type 2 Veins). Type 1 Veins are divided into three stages with 12–14 substages. Ore minerals identified include electrum, naumannite, chlorargyrite, bromargyrite, an unidentified Fe‐Sb mineral, and an Fe‐(Sb)‐As mineral. These ore minerals formed in the main mineralization stages I (bands I‐b and I‐d) and II (band II‐a). Scanning electron microscopy with cathodoluminescence images show that cathodoluminescence‐dark microcrystalline quartz exhibiting colloform (ghost‐sphere) texture is closely associated with ore minerals in the Type 1 Vein and Type 2 Vein, and the Al and K contents of such quartz are commonly >1000 ppm. This indicates that the ore minerals were crystallized from alkaline, silica‐saturated fluids at temperatures <200°C, which initially deposited amorphous silica that was recrystallized to microcrystalline quartz. The average Au content of electrum is 52.5 at% Au (n = 10), 65.7 at% Au (n = 20), and 55.5 at% Au (n = 5) in bands I‐b, I‐d, and II‐a, respectively, of Type 1 Veins. The δ³⁴S_CDT values of two fine‐grained disseminated pyrites in the altered conglomerate and bedded tuff in the argillic altered zone are ?4.3 and ?4.2‰. Ar‐Ar dating on adularia yielded 13.6 ± 0.06 Ma, 13.6 ± 0.07 Ma, and 13.6 ± 0.06 Ma for the stages I, II, and III of the Type 1 Vein, respectively. K‐Ar ages determined on adularia in the silica sinter and on whole‐rock of glassy rhyolite of the Esashi Formation are 15.0 ± 0.4 Ma and 14.6 ± 0.4 Ma, respectively. These radiometric ages indicate that silica sinter associated with the rhyolitic volcanic rocks formed prior to the main gold mineralization.  相似文献   

Interhemispheric observations of field line resonance frequencies as a continuous function of ground latitude in the auroral zones     

S. Takasaki  N. Sato  A. Kadokura  H. Yamagishi  H. Kawano  Y. Ebihara  Y.-M. Tanaka 《Polar Science》2008,2(2):73-86

In the austral summer of 2006–2007, the 48th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE-48) installed two unmanned low-power magnetometers to form a closely spaced magnetometer network in combination with the permanent sites at Japan's Syowa Station in Antarctica. To identify field line resonances (FLRs), gradient methods are applied to the data from three adjacent sites in Antarctica and data from conjugate points in Antarctica and Iceland. By analyzing the data from the Antarctic and Icelandic sites individually, the structure of FLRs with high coherence is clearly identified. However, by analyzing the data from closely spaced Antarctic sites, it is more difficult to identify the signature of FLRs because of the inclusion of multiple signals related to the local geomagnetic pulsations over a broad frequency range. The frequency and resonance width of FLRs are determined by applying the amplitude phase gradient method (APGM) to the data from Antarctic sites. This yields the eigenfrequency as a continuous function of ground latitudes in the area surrounding Syowa Station. The mass density in the equatorial region at the L of the auroral zones is estimated from the obtained FLR frequency by numerically solving the standing Alfvén wave equation. The mass density thus obtained is consistent with observational results from previous in situ measurements by spacecraft. The results of the present study demonstrate that data from geomagnetic conjugate points are helpful in identifying FLR in cases in which the magnetometers are too close to each other to enable identification. Once FLR is identified, APGM can be applied to the identified FLR, yielding the FLR frequency as a continuous function of ground latitudes. Therefore, the magnetospheric equatorial mass density is readily estimated with high spatial resolution.  相似文献