Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   

Polymorphic phase transition in Superhydrous Phase B     

M. Koch-Müller  P. Dera  Y. Fei  H. Hellwig  Z. Liu  J. Van Orman  R. Wirth 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2005,32(5-6):349-361

We synthesized superhydrous phase B (shy-B) at 22 GPa and two different temperatures: 1200°C (LT) and 1400°C (HT) using a multi-anvil apparatus. The samples were investigated by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), single crystal X-ray diffraction, Raman and IR spectroscopy. The IR spectra were collected on polycrystalline thin-films and single crystals using synchrotron radiation, as well as a conventional IR source at ambient conditions and in situ at various pressures (up to 15 GPa) and temperatures (down to −180°C). Our studies show that shy-B exists in two polymorphic forms. As expected from crystal chemistry, the LT polymorph crystallizes in a lower symmetry space group (Pnn2), whereas the HT polymorph assumes a higher symmetry space group (Pnnm). TEM shows that both modifications consist of nearly perfect crystals with almost no lattice defects or inclusions of additional phases. IR spectra taken on polycrystalline thin films exhibit just one symmetric OH band and 29 lattice modes for the HT polymorph in contrast to two intense but asymmetric OH stretching bands and at least 48 lattice modes for the LT sample. The IR spectra differ not only in the number of bands, but also in the response of the bands to changes in pressure. The pressure derivatives for the IR bands are higher for the HT polymorph indicating that the high symmetry form is more compressible than the low symmetry form. Polarized, low-temperature single-crystal IR spectra indicate that in the LT-polymorph extensive ordering occurs not only at the Mg sites but also at the hydrogen sites.  相似文献   

GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in northern Ardenne–Eifel: five campaigns (1999–2003) of the HARD project     

A. Demoulin  J. Campbell  A. De. Wulf  A. Muls  R. Arnould  B. Görres  D. Fischer  T. Kötter  M. Brondeel  D. Van. Damme  J. M. Jacqmotte 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2005,94(4):515-524

We present the HARD project of GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in NE Ardenne and Eifel (western Europe). Its main purposes are to get a better insight into the present-day rates of vertical ground motion in intraplate settings and to identify the various causes of these motions. Since 1999, we have carried out yearly campaigns of simultaneous GPS measurements at 12 sites situated so as to sample the different tectonic subunits of the study area and especially to record potential displacements across the seismogenic Hockai fault zone. Five campaigns (1999–2003) have been processed currently. Key issues of the data processing with the Gamit software are discussed and first results are presented. Though temporally consistent in many cases, the obtained vertical motion rates are spatially highly variable. They are also much too high (several mm/year) to support a tectonic interpretation, and a long-term influence of groundwater level variations is proposed to account for the observed motions. This influence should be distinguished from seasonal variations and from inter-survey variations linked to the varying degree of soil and subsoil drying off during the successive spring surveys.  相似文献   

Modeling the impact of microbial activity on redox dynamics in porous media     

Martin Thullner  Philippe Van Cappellen  Pierre Regnier 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(21):5005-5019

The present study investigates the interaction between microbial growth and activity and the redox dynamics in natural porous media. The impact the transport regime has on this interaction is also addressed. Expressions for microbial growth are incorporated into a geochemical reaction network linking redox reaction rates to the activity of the microorganisms. A flexible simulation environment, the Biogeochemical Reaction Network Simulator (BRNS) is used for this purpose. Two reactive transport applications relevant to fields of contaminant hydrology and early diagenesis are simulated with the BRNS. Model results are evaluated based on a comparison with comprehensive datasets on the biodegradation of lactate in a sand column experiment and on the distribution of redox-sensitive chemical species in marine sediments of the Skagerrak, Denmark. It is shown that, despite quite different transport regimes, the geomicrobiological model performs equally well in the reproduction of measured chemical species distribution for both applications. This result emphasizes the broad applicability of the proposed approach. Our simulations support that the competitive behavior between various microbial groups is a process controlling the development of redox stratified environments. Furthermore, it is also shown that the transport regime is a key controlling factor for the degree of spatial correlation between microbial biomass distributions and redox reaction rates. Although all our simulations yield a pronounced stratification of the redox processes in the system, the biomass distribution is related to the associated reaction rates only in case of the advection controlled column experiment. In the early diagenetic application, mixing due to bioturbation is the dominant transport process for particulate matter, hence leading to fairly homogeneous distribution of bacterial biomasses which are unrelated to the spatial distribution of redox reaction rates. This homogeneous biomass distribution combined with the 1G carbon degradation model approach might explain why the steady state concentration profiles in such systems can be reproduced by diagenetic models without explicit representation of microbial growth.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Polymorphic phase transition in Superhydrous Phase B     

M. Koch-Müller  P. Dera  Y. Fei  H. Hellwig  Z. Liu  J. Van Orman  R. Wirth 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(9):725-725

  相似文献   

A 2000‐year lipid biomarker record preserved in a stalagmite from north‐west Scotland     

Alison J. Blyth  Andy Baker  Louise E. Thomas  Peter Van Calsteren 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(3):326-334

Previous studies on lipid biomarkers preserved in Chinese stalagmites have indicated that ratios of low‐molecular‐weight (LMW) to high‐molecular‐weight (HMW) n‐alkanes, n‐alkan‐2‐ones, n‐alkanols and n‐alkanoic acids can be used as an index of vegetation versus microbial organic matter input to the system and, by extension, a marker of climatic changes, with increases in the proportion of LMW compounds coinciding with colder periods. Here we test whether this hypothesis is equally applicable to a different geographical region (north‐west Scotland), by examining a stalagmite record of the past 200 years, and a wider range of lipid markers. We also test the applicability of other lipid proxies in this context, including the use of n‐alkane ratios, to interpret vegetation changes, and unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios as climatic indicators. The results show that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites, and especially those related to vegetation, are potentially extremely useful in palaeoenvironmental research. Of particular value is the use of C₂₇/C₃₁ n‐alkane ratios as a proxy for vegetation change, clearly indicating variations between herbaceous and arboreal cover. This proxy has now been successfully applied to samples from diverse environments, and can be considered sufficiently robust to be of use in analysing future stalagmite records. It will be of particular value in areas where reliable pollen records are not available, as is often the case with deeper cave deposits. However, the division between LMW and HMW aliphatic compounds is not a clear‐cut case of microbial versus plant activity, with the changes in LMW compounds relating more closely to those in their HMW analogues than in specific bacterial biomarkers. The use of unsaturated alkanoic acid ratios here gives conflicting results, with the observed variation through time depending on the isomer measured. The discrepancies between the findings of this study and previous work are likely to be due to the varying controls on the lipids (original organic matter input, and compound degradation), which in turn will be affected by whether the main climatic limiting factor on the soil is temperature or precipitation. This suggests that lipid proxies preserved in stalagmites must be interpreted with care, particularly in the case of bacterial compounds which may be derived from within the cave or from the soil. However, many of these issues can be resolved by the use of multi‐proxy studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Late Cretaceous Klepa basalts in Macedonia (FYROM)—Constraints on the final stage of Tethys closure in the Balkans          下载免费PDF全文

Dejan Prelević  Simon Wehrheim  Magnus Reutter  Rolf L. Romer  Blažo Boev  Milica Božović  Paul van den Bogaard  Vladica Cvetković  Stefan M. Schmid 《地学学报》2017,29(3):145-153

The waning stage(s) of the Tethyan ocean(s) in the Balkans are not well understood. Controversy centres on the origin and life‐span of the Cretaceous Sava Zone, which is allegedly a remnant of the last oceanic domain in the Balkan Peninsula, defining the youngest suture between Eurasia‐ and Adria‐derived plates. In order to investigate to what extent Late‐Cretaceous volcanism within the Sava Zone is consistent with this model we present new age data together with trace‐element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data for the Klepa basaltic lavas from the central Balkan Peninsula. Our new geochemical data show marked differences between the Cretaceous Klepa basalts (Sava Zone) and the rocks of other volcanic sequences from the Jurassic ophiolites of the Balkans. The Klepa basalts mostly have Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic and trace‐element signatures that resemble enriched within‐plate basalts substantially different from Jurassic ophiolite basalts with MORB, BAB and IAV affinities. Trace‐element modelling of the Klepa rocks indicates 2%–20% polybaric melting of a relatively homogeneously metasomatised mantle source that ranges in composition from garnet lherzolite to ilmenite+apatite bearing spinel–amphibole lherzolite. Thus, the residual mineralogy is characteristic of a continental rather than oceanic lithospheric mantle source, suggesting an intracontinental within‐plate origin for the Klepa basalts. Two alternative geodynamic models are internally consistent with our new findings: (1) if the Sava Zone represents remnants of the youngest Neotethyan Ocean, magmatism along this zone would be situated within the forearc region and triggered by ridge subduction; (2) if the Sava Zone delimits a diffuse tectonic boundary between Adria and Europe which had already collided in the Late Jurassic, the Klepa basalts together with a number of other magmatic centres represent volcanism related to transtensional tectonics.  相似文献   

A laboratory study of the turbulent ekman layer     

D. R. Caldwell  C. W. Van Atta  K. N. Helland 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1):125-160

Abstract

Comparing characteristics of a turbulent Ekman boundary layer in a rotating apparatus with atmospheric observations and theories, we find that the similarity relations derived by Kazanski and Monin, and others, scale both laboratory and field data quite well, especially considering that the Coriolis parameter is larger by a factor of 10⁵ in the experiment than it is in the atmosphere. Eddy viscosity models and Deardorff's numerical model predict the properties of both with varying degrees of success. High frequency spectra of velocity fluctuations scale with the Kolmogoroff length and time scales. Both magnitude and direction of the surface shear stress were measured directly, with a heated film stress gauge.  相似文献   

Autogenic avulsion,channelization and backfilling dynamics of debris‐flow fans          下载免费PDF全文

Tjalling de Haas  Wilco van den Berg  Lisanne Braat  Maarten G. Kleinhans 《Sedimentology》2016,63(6):1596-1619

Alluvial fans develop their semi‐conical shape by quasi‐cyclic avulsions of their geomorphologically active sector from a fixed fan apex. On debris‐flow fans, these quasi‐cyclic avulsions are poorly understood, partly because physical scale experiments on the formation of fans have been limited largely to turbidite and fluvial fans and deltas. In this study, debris‐flow fans were experimentally created under constant extrinsic forcing, and autogenic sequences of backfilling, avulsion and channelization were observed. Backfilling, avulsion and channelization were gradual processes that required multiple successive debris‐flow events. Debris flows avulsed along preferential flow paths given by the balance between steepest descent and flow inertia. In the channelization phase, debris flows became progressively longer and narrower because momentum increasingly focused on the flow front as flow narrowed, resulting in longer run‐out and deeper channels. Backfilling commenced when debris flows reached their maximum possible length and channel depth, as defined by channel slope and debris‐flow volume and composition, after which they progressively shortened and widened until the entire channel was filled and avulsion was initiated. The terminus of deposition moved upstream because the frontal lobe deposits of previous debris flows created a low‐gradient zone forcing deposition. Consequently, the next debris flow was shorter which led to more in‐channel sedimentation, causing more overbank flow in the next debris flow and resulting in reduced momentum to the flow front and shorter runout. This topographic feedback is similar to the interaction between flow and mouth bars forcing backfilling and transitions from channelized to sheet flow in turbidite and fluvial fans and deltas. Debris‐flow avulsion cycles are governed by the same large‐scale topographic compensation that drives avulsion cycles on fluvial and turbidite fans, although the detailed processes are unique to debris‐flow fans. This novel result provides a basis for modelling of debris‐flow fans with applications in hazards and stratigraphy.  相似文献   

Integrating Indoor and Outdoor Spaces for Pedestrian Navigation Guidance: A Review          下载免费PDF全文

Ann Vanclooster  Nico Van de Weghe  Philippe De Maeyer 《Transactions in GIS》2016,20(4):491-525

In light of the many improvements within 3D urban modeling and Location‐Based Services, this article provides a timely review of the state‐of‐the‐art on integrating indoor and outdoor spaces in pedestrian navigation guidance aids. With people moving seamlessly between buildings and surrounding areas, navigation guidance tools should extend from merely outdoor or indoor guidance, to provide support in the combined indoor‐outdoor context. This article first examines the challenges and complexities of integrating indoor and outdoor spaces into a single navigation system. Next, by using objective selection criteria, 36 relevant studies were withheld and further reviewed on their specific developments in data model requirements, and algorithmic and context support for integrated IO navigation systems. This review shows that the challenges of dealing with both indoor and outdoor space structures, while taking into account pedestrian's freer use of space, currently complicate the proposition of a unified IO space concept for navigation. However, there are some ongoing developments (e.g. context definitions, algorithmic extensions, increased data availability, growing awareness of pedestrians’ perception during wayfinding) that will help to bring outdoor and indoor spaces closer together in the realm of combined geospatial analysis.  相似文献