Erratum to: Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS     

Prasanta Kumar Bal  Andimuthu Ramachandran  Kandasamy Palanivelu  Perumal Thirumurugan  Rajadurai Geetha  Balakrishnan Bhaskaran 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):519-519

The author “Bhaski Bhaskaran” and his affiliation “Fujitsu Laboratory of Europe, Middlesex, UK” should be replaced by “Balakrishnan Bhaskaran”, “Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe Limited, Hayes Park, Middlesex, UK”, respectively.The corrected name and affiliation are shown in this erratum.  相似文献   

Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods     

Keunhee Han  JunTae Choi  Chansoo Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):495-507

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.  相似文献   

Development of statistical seasonal prediction models of Arctic Sea Ice concentration using CERES absorbed solar radiation     

Yoojin Kim  Ha-Rim Kim  Yong-Sang Choi  WonMoo Kim  Hye-Sil Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):467-477

Statistical seasonal prediction models for the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) were developed for the late summer (August-October) when the downward trend is dramatic. The absorbed solar radiation (ASR) at the top of the atmosphere in June has a significant seasonal leading role on the SIC. Based on the lagged ASR-SIC relationship, two simple statistical models were established: the Markovian stochastic and the linear regression models. Crossvalidated hindcasts of SIC from 1979 to 2014 by the two models were compared with each other and observation. The hindcasts showed general agreement between the models as they share a common predictor, ASR in June and the observed SIC was well reproduced, especially over the relatively thin-ice regions (of one- or multi-year sea ice). The robust predictability confirms the functional role of ASR in the prediction of SIC. In particular, the SIC prediction in October was quite promising probably due to the pronounced icealbedo feedback. The temporal correlation coefficients between the predicted SIC and the observed SIC were 0.79 and 0.82 by the Markovian and regression models, respectively. Small differences were observed between the two models; the regression model performed slightly better in August and September in terms of temporal correlation coefficients. Meanwhile, the prediction skills of the Markovian model in October were higher in the north of Chukchi, the East Siberian, and the Laptev Seas. A strong non-linear relationship between ASR in June and SIC in October in these areas would have increased the predictability of the Markovian model.  相似文献   

气象预警信息一键式发布系统研究与应用     

张亚  江春  陈浩  袁兴德  罗希昌 《气象科技》2016,44(1):41-46

基于WebGIS、HTTP通信、数据库等技术,制定了一键式预警信息发布规范,有效整合了电子显示屏、预警大喇叭、手机等预警发布终端,开发了气象预警信息一键式发布平台,实现了地图综合显示、气象数据叠加、任意预警区域选取、一键式发布预警信息等功能,提高了预警信息发布的可视化水平,保证了多终端预警信息发布的高效性、一致性。该系统的一键式信息发布技术,为气象预警发布开拓了新思路,能够有效提升业务水平和预警发布能力。  相似文献   

纪念中国大陆科学钻探实施15周年、国际大陆科学钻探委员会成立20周年   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

许志琴  杨文采  杨经绥  安芷生  王成善  李海兵  刘嘉麒  苏德辰  何碧竹  王达  张伟  张晓西 《地质学报》2016,90(9):2109-2122

大陆科学钻探是“入地”的重要手段,是“深入地球内部的望远镜”。中国大陆科学钻探事业开展15周年以来,取得重要进展,获得全球地学界的高度关注,特别是2001年实施的中国第一口大陆科学深钻 （5158m）,成果辉煌,影响巨大。继后,又开展了青海湖环境科学钻探、松辽盆地白垩纪科学钻探、柴达木盐湖环境资源科学钻探,汶川地震断裂带科学钻探以及中国大陆科钻资源集成计划,总共钻进约 35km,显示了中国科学钻探方兴未艾的景象。为纪念国际大陆科学钻探20周年（1996~2016）和中国大陆科学钻探实施15周年（2001~2016）,本文回顾中国大陆科学钻探实施15年来的艰辛和奋斗的历程,展望中国大陆科学钻探的未来。  相似文献   

北淮阳构造带的属性及其对板块缝合线位置的启示   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

黄鹏  宋传中  任升莲  LIN Shouf  张妍  李加好  刘欢  王微  杨帆  刘啟能 《地质学报》2016,90(6):1112-1129

北淮阳构造带为一条沿大别造山带北麓展布的狭长构造带,是华北板块与扬子板块碰撞造山的产物,其物源组成、构造属性等研究内容是揭示南北板块在中国东部的大地构造单元格局以及时空演化的关键信息。结合构造变形、岩石学、岩石地球化学、锆石U-Pb年代学等方法对北淮阳前中生代岩石地层单元苏家河群/卢镇关群和信阳群/佛子岭群进行对比分析,就其构造属性形成这样的基本认识:北淮阳构造带是杨子板块向华北板块俯冲-碰撞的结合带,其物质组成具有双源性-主体部分来源于杨子板块,由代表了杨子板块北缘基底的晚元古代苏家河群(784±19Ma)/卢镇关群(756±12Ma)和杨子板块被动陆缘复理石沉积建造-中泥盆世至晚泥盆世早期的信阳群南湾组组成,后者相当于商丹缝合带以南的刘岭群;信阳群龟山组亲缘于华北板块并构成华北板块南缘的弧前楔形沉积体,是沿商丹缝合带分布的桃花铺弧前楔形沉积体的东延。佛子岭群总体可与信阳群相连,全岩成分显示,佛子岭群沉积构造环境既有活动大陆边缘,又有被动大陆边缘。由于中生代以来多期构造变形叠加(至少三期),佛子岭群岩石地层单元的叠置关系被改造或重置,使其缺少"构造解体"的证据,而无法在构造单元上细分。对于两大板块之间的缝合带位置,笔者认为:商丹缝合带进入北淮阳构造带后,应沿着北淮阳的北界,与龟山-梅山-六安-磨墩水库一线延伸的断裂带相连。  相似文献   

辽东湾坳陷东部地区走滑双重构造的发育特征 及其石油地质意义   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

吴智平  张婧  任健  徐长贵  李伟  张晓庆 《地质学报》2016,90(5):848-856

在将构造发育特征与走滑双重构造理论模型进行类比分析的基础上,对辽东湾坳陷东部地区的走滑双重构造的发育特征进行了研究,并结合油气勘探实践成果,就其石油地质意义进行了探讨,研究结果表明:在受控于走滑与拉伸并存的多动力源区域地质背景下,辽东湾坳陷新生代构造演化体现了断陷与拗陷、拉张与走滑的叠加效应,NNE走向的辽中1号断裂、辽中2号断裂及辽东断裂的发育不仅控制了辽东湾坳陷东部地区的凸凹格局,其走滑侧接关系也导致了研究区走滑双重构造的发育;辽东凸起是由于辽中2号断裂、辽东断裂走滑弯曲、右行左阶侧接而形成的挤压走滑双重构造,而辽中凹陷在早期拉张断陷基础上,经历了后期走滑作用的改造,其断裂体系的发育体现了辽中1号断裂与辽中2号断裂的右旋右行侧列所产生的拉张走滑双重构造效应;在走滑双重构造的增压带,断裂侧向封堵性强,有利于形成有效的断层圈闭,是油气藏发育的有利区带。  相似文献   

粤西庙山铜多金属矿床硫化物微量元素LA-ICP-MS原位测定及S同位素对矿床成因的制约   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

邢波  郑伟  欧阳志侠  吴晓东  林玮鹏  田云 《地质学报》2016,90(5):971-986

庙山铜多金属矿床是在粤西阳春盆地内新近发现的一处铜多金属矿床。矿体主要呈似层状和透镜状产于泥盆系的陆源碎屑岩和含泥质的碳酸盐岩中。本文以矿石矿物黄铁矿和闪锌矿为研究对象,采用LA-ICP-MS原位微区分析新技术对其微量元素特征进行研究。结果表明,庙山铜多金属矿床中黄铁矿以富Se、Te和As,贫Ni元素为特征,其Co/Ni和S/Se比值特征指示其成因与岩浆热液型矿床密切相关;闪锌矿的微量元素组成指示其主要形成于中高温环境,以富Mn、In、Se,贫Ga、Ge、Tl等元素为特征,总体与国外一些典型的矽卡岩型矿床（如Baita Bihor、Majdanpek、Ocna de Fier和Valea Seaca）相似。同时,闪锌矿的部分微量元素比值（如Zn/Cd、Ga/In等）以及相关的微量元素图解（如Ge-In, Ge-Se等）均表明庙山矿床的成因类型与矽卡岩型矿床一致。硫同位素测试结果表明,矿石的δ34S值较为集中（-0.4‰ ~ +2‰）,平均0.69‰,具有较为明显的塔式分布特征,反映成矿物质具有岩浆来源的特征。以地质现象为基础,结合硫化物原位微区分析和硫同位素数据,我们认为庙山铜多金属矿床属于与岩浆热液有关的矽卡岩型矿床。  相似文献   

北祁连的形成与演化历史：来自河流沉积物地球化学及其碎屑锆石U Pb年龄、Hf同位素组成的证据   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈岳龙  李兆  刘长征  古远  李大鹏 《地质学报》2016,90(2):267-283

通过对发源于北祁连造山带北段、中段、南段河流沉积物地球化学与碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄及Hf同位素组成的系统研究,确定河流沙、泥沙质微量元素平均组成与大陆上地壳平均值基本一致。一般沙质成分由于石英的稀释作用使其微量元素含量稍低于大陆上地壳平均值,泥沙质成分的微量元素含量一般稍高于大陆上地壳均值。北祁连造山带河流碎屑沉积物As、Sb、Cu、Zn等元素的平均含量明显高于大陆上地壳的平均含量,可能指示北祁连硫化物矿床成矿具有良好的前景。河流碎屑沉积物Sm-Nd同位素组成得到的Nd亏损地幔模式年龄为1.89~1.12Ga,平均为1.68Ga;北段、中段河流沙质部分的Nd同位素亏损地幔模式年龄比相对较细的泥沙质部分的老,说明河流近源古老地壳基底组分更多;而南段的部分河流则相反,说明近源有更多的新生地壳组分。锆石U-Pb年龄结果表明,北祁连造山带最强的岩浆作用发生于新元古代—晚古生代早期(650~400Ma),此期间形成的锆石占全部锆石的31%,它们主要记录了北祁连洋壳的俯冲消减、陆-陆碰撞及碰撞后的壳内岩浆作用过程。太古宙古老基底组分在北祁连造山带存在,但所占比例极低,它们可能以碎屑组分存在于古元古代的北大河岩群等变质基底中。新太古代到古元古代(2700~1700Ma)期间形成的锆石占全部锆石的~34%,此期间是北祁连基底的主要形成阶段。古元古代末到新元古代(1700~650Ma)期间形成的锆石占全部锆石的17%,它们可能代表着古祁连洋盆的主要形成阶段。锆石Hf同位素组成确定的北祁连由亏损地幔增生物质到地壳主要发生于3.2~2.0Ga、2.0~1.0Ga这两个时间段,650Ma以后基本没有增生地壳组分的加入。不同地段河流碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄有些差别,北段的北大河中最老基底组分所占比例最高,而南段河流中的古老基底组分比例相对较低,印证了古祁连洋是从东南向西北拉开的过程,西北段在俯冲消减及碰撞过程中有较多古老地壳基底组分的参与。晚古生代晚期—三叠纪期间北祁连仍存在较弱的岩浆作用。由Nd同位素比值与Nd含量、Na_2O/K_2O比值之间的关系进一步证明北祁连河流沉积物是最古老的基底长英质组分、较老的基底镁铁质组分或其熔融产物、古祁连洋壳镁铁质组分或其熔融产物三者混合的产物。  相似文献   

Geochronological and isotopic records of crustal storage and assimilation in the Wolverine Creek–Conant Creek system,Heise eruptive centre,Snake River Plain     

D. Szymanowski  B. S. Ellis  J. F. Wotzlaw  Y. Buret  A. von Quadt  I. Peytcheva  I. N. Bindeman  O. Bachmann 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(12):106

Understanding the processes of differentiation of the Yellowstone–Snake River Plain (YSRP) rhyolites is typically impeded by the apparent lack of erupted intermediate compositions as well as the complex nature of their shallow interaction with the surrounding crust responsible for their typically low O isotopic ratios. A pair of normal-δ¹⁸O rhyolitic eruptions from the Heise eruptive centre in eastern Idaho, the Wolverine Creek Tuff and the Conant Creek Tuff, represent unique magmatic products of the Yellowstone hotspot preserving abundant vestiges of the intermediate differentiation steps leading to rhyolite generation. We address both shallow and deep processes of magma generation and storage in the two units by combining high-precision ID–TIMS U–Pb zircon geochronology, trace element, O and Hf isotopic studies of zircon, and Sr isotopic analyses of individual high-Mg# pyroxenes inherited from lower- to mid-crustal differentiation stages. The zircon geochronology confirms the derivation of both tuffs from the same rhyolitic magma reservoir erupted at 5.5941 ± 0.0097 Ma, preceded by at least 92 ± 14 ky of continuous or intermittent zircon saturation approximating the length of pre-eruptive magma accumulation in the upper crust. Some low-Mg# pyroxenes enclosing zircons predate the eruption by at least 45 ± 27 ky, illustrating the co-crystallisation of major and accessory phases in the near-liquidus rhyolitic melts of the YSRP over a significant period of time. Coeval zircon crystals are isotopically heterogeneous (two populations at εHf ~?5 and ?13), requiring the assembly of isotopically distinct melt pockets directly prior to, or during, the eruption. The primitive Mg# 60–90 pyroxenes are out of isotopic equilibrium with the host rhyolitic melt (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70889), covering a range of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70705–0.70883 corresponding to ratios typical of the most radiogenic YSRP basalts to the least radiogenic YSRP rhyolites. Together with the low εHf in zircon, the Sr isotopic ratios illustrate limited assimilation dominated by radiogenic Archean crustal source materials incorporated into variably evolved YSRP melts as they progress towards rhyolitic compositions by assimilation–fractional crystallisation.  相似文献