副热带高压对登陆台风影响的数值模拟研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

季亮  费建芳  黄小刚 《气象学报》2010,68(1):39-47

中国登陆台风多发于夏季,尤其对于登陆后继续北上深入内陆的热带气旋,逐渐与其所处的中纬度环境场发生相互作用,强度衰减缓慢甚至再次发展,且伴随有台风动力、热力结构的转变(ET过程).同时,夏季多伴有副热带高压的活跃与西伸趋势,然而该系统与台风之间相互作用的物理机制仍不十分清楚,这已成为提高台风预报能力的主要障碍之一.文中选取1997年第11号台风"温妮"为研究个例,通过中尺度模式MM5模拟再现了该台风登陆后经历初期减弱、变性及变性后再次发展的演变过程.采用Davis等提出的片段位涡反演方法,改变模式积分初始时刻台风东部副热带高压强度,通过数值模拟与诊断分析的方法,深入研究不同强度副热带高压系统对台风陆上维持、变性和发展的影响.研究表明,副热带高压强度的加强加快了台风中心的北移速度,冷空气提前下沉入侵台风中心,加快台风的变性,配合暖气团的强迫抬升激发强烈的对流层中高层锋生,台风变性后冉次加强幅度增大.副热带高压强度的改变直接影响台风中心上空高空形势,而后者与台风强度的变化有较好的相关性.  相似文献   

基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化与偏差修正的热带气旋强度集合预报研究     

黄小刚  费建芳  陆汉城  韩锐 《气象学报》2010,68(1):79-87

采用基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化和偏差修正方法的集合预报技术来研究热带气旋的强度预报问题.集合预报系统考虑初值误差和模式误差,利用MM5中尺度模式,采用Anthes-kuo、Grell和Betts-Miller等积云参数化方案和High-res-olution Blaekadar、Burlk-Thompson、MRF等边界层过程的9组不同的组合,分别进行45、60和75 min的短时预报.对9个预报结果采用"镜像法",得到18个集合成员.将蓝金涡旋作为同化的观测场,18个集合成员作为集合Kalman滤波的初始背景集合,采用ENSRF算法和逐点局地分析算法进行同化.同化后的结果作为集合预报的初值,预报过程对模式参数采用前述9种组合,进行72小时预报.通过求取偏差系数对预报结果进行修正,减小模式系统误差.选2003-2004年16个台风过程作为预报个例,讨论偏差修正前后对预报结果的影响.实验结果表明,基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化的热带气旋集合预报相对于非同化的集合预报对路径预报的改进效果优于强度预报.平均而言通过偏差修正,强度集合预报的潜力得到挖掘,绝对误差明显减小,通过偏差修正减小了强度集合预报均值的误差,进而使得预报概率密度函数均值向理论值靠近,从而提高了概率预报的精度和合理性,因此基于集合预报的偏差修正分析方法,是改善热带气旋强度预报水平的有效途径.  相似文献   

国家自然科学基金为推动我国大气科学学科中的气候变化研究提供重要支撑     

罗云峰  周小刚 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(5):315-318

 气候变化已成为国际社会普遍关注的重大全球性问题。国家自然科学基金委员会（NSFC）作为我国支持基础研究和部分应用基础研究的主要机构,不但参与了我国应对气候变化一系列政策的制定,而且为气候变化相关领域的研究提供了重要支撑。从科学基金研究项目资助的4个层次（面上项目、重点项目、重大研究计划、重大项目）上,对1986-2007年大气科学学科受资助的项目进行了统计。结果表明, 近22 a来NSFC在气候变化研究领域资助项目达506项,资助金额达24304.3万元,这从一个侧面说明NSFC对气候变化研究的关注和支持。最后,对今后NSFC为满足国家需求和学科发展需要在气候变化研究方面将作的进一步投入进行了展望。  相似文献   

“080825”上海大暴雨综合分析   总被引：14，自引：5，他引：9  

曹晓岗  张吉  王慧  陈永林 《气象》2009,35(4):51-58

利用常规天气资料以及非常规高密度观测资料、物理量场资料、云图资料以及PWV可降水汽资料等,对2008年8月25日上海地区的强对流暴雨进行了分析.分析表明三支气流在长江中下游及江南北部地区交汇有利于低涡的生成发展,为上海强对流天气的发生提供了有利的天气背景条件;中低纬度系统相互作用为上海强对流暴雨天气提供了水汽、能量和触发条件.在大暴雨开始前12～24小时,水汽、能量和中低层大的正涡度有向长江下游汇合的趋势,在上海附近逐渐形成强的位势不稳定.上升运动集中在1个经度左右非常窄的地区,是产生特强降水原因之一.GPS/PWV探测可以及时了解大气水汽总量的变化,仅靠本地上空的水汽全部落下是远远不够的,还需要大量的水汽辐合.对流云团合并,云核合并后强烈发展移动缓慢同样是产生特强降水原因之一,在对流云团的后侧,对应温度梯度最大,是降水最强的地方.  相似文献   

Numerical Study on the Impacts of the Bogus Data Assimilation and Sea Spray Parameterization on Typhoon Ducts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

FEI Jianfang  DING Juli  HUANG Xiaogang  CHENG Xiaoping  HU Xiaohua 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2013,27(3):308-321

The Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.2 (WRF v3.2) was used with the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme and sea spray parameterization (SSP), and experiments were conducted to assess the impacts of the BDA and SSP on prediction of the typhoon ducting process induced by Typhoon Mindule (2004). The global positioning system (GPS) dropsonde observations were used for comparison. The results show that typhoon ducts are likely to form in every direction around the typhoon center, with the main type of ducts being elevated duct. With the BDA scheme included in the model initialization, the model has a better performance in predicting the existence, distribution, and strength of typhoon ducts. This improvement is attributed to the positive effect of the BDA scheme on the typhoon’s ambient boundary layer structure. Sea spray affects typhoon ducts mainly by changing the latent heat (LH) flux at the air-sea interface beyond 270 km from the typhoon center. The strength of the typhoon duct is enhanced when the boundary layer under this duct is cooled and moistened by the sea spray; otherwise, the typhoon duct is weakened. The sea spray induced changes in the air-sea sensible heat (SH) flux and LH flux are concentrated in the maximum wind speed area near the typhoon center, and the changes are significantly weakened with the increase of the radial range.  相似文献   

不同分辨率遥感影像获取均匀分布匹配点的匹配方法研究     

罗征宇  宁晓刚 《测绘通报》2011,(4):38-40

基于SIFT算法提出一种适合于不同分辨率遥感影像并能获取均匀分布匹配结果的匹配方法,该方法首先将匹配区域进行分块,然后针对每个分块区域提取SIFT影像特征,在提取过程中,通过不同层级高斯影像塔和高斯差分影像的分级实现匹配点数量的控制,从而获取均匀分布的匹配点对。  相似文献   

宁夏国土资源网站群系统的设计与应用     

陈敏  陈小刚 《国土资源信息化》2011,(6):51-54

当前,我国政府网站的发展正从以技术和内容为导向阶段向以服务为导向阶段发展,在门户网站中提供人性化、个性化、专业化的服务,提高公众对网站的认知度和满意度,是今后政府网站发展的主要方向。本文以宁夏国土资源厅网站群为例,详细阐述了网站系统的设计、功能、应用及维护等。  相似文献   

A Reconstruction for the Late Paleozoic Tectonic Evolution of the Tekes Daban Area, Western Tianshan Mountains: Evidence from Unconformities     

LI Yongjun  YANG Gaoxue  WANG Xiaogang  ZHANG Tianji  LIU Xiaoyu  YANG Mingyi  TONG Liming 《《地质学报》英文版》2011,85(5):1127-1136

The identification of unconformities is the key to reconstructing tectonic evolution, revealing crust movement and establishing tectonic cycle. For a long time, there were some controversial issues on the episodes of Variscan cycle (especially on the period of Carboniferous-Permian stages) of the Tianshan area. The essential questions fall on the numbers and property of unconformities in this area, for example, in the western Tianshan area. Previous research only recognized three or four fold movements. Detailed regional geological mapping of 1:50000 in the Tekes Daban area, western Tianshan have allowed us to characterize the seven unconformities within the Carboniferous-Permian strata and understand its implications for tectonic reconstruction of the Tianshan orogen. Seven angular unconformities, which indicate that seven tectonic episodes occurred in the Late Paleozoic Period, were identified in this area. Therein, the newly discovered unconformities based on the angle-unconformity between the Dongtujinhe and Keguqinshan Formations, and angle-unconformity between the Wulansayi and Wulang Formations, respectively indicates the Tekes episode and Gongliu episode. The unconformity between the Dongtujinhe and Yishijilike Formations is angle-unconformity instead of parallel unconformity indentified by previous research, so the former Bogda ascending can be revised as Bogda movement. Therefore, these newly identified seven episodes, including the Tekes episode, suggest that there are seven tectonic movements in the Tianshan area at least. This has significant implications for reconstruction of the Late Paleozoic tectonics in the Tianshan Area, NW China  相似文献   

Developing a new grey dynamic modeling system for evaluation of biology and pollution indicators of the marine environment in coastal areas     

Xiaogang Tian  Chaofeng ShaoZili Fang 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2011,54(10):750-759

Pollution of the marine environment leads to corresponding changes within the ecosystem. Thus, evaluation of the marine environment for management purposes, which is a procedure complicated by multi-hierarchy, multi-factors, and multi-uncertainty, should be considered from both ecological and environmental standpoints. Currently, the lack of consideration of the relationship between bio-indicators and water pollution in marine environmental evaluation hinders the efforts of conventional modeling approaches in this field. This paper presents an innovative dynamic modeling system that we call the grey dynamic modeling system (GDMS). This system synthesizes the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), grey target theory (GTT), and grey forecasting modeling approaches (GM(1,1)), and it takes both ecological and environmental factors into account during evaluation and forecasting of the marine environment in coastal areas. To effectively eliminate the subjective errors of the traditional AHP process, the GTT analysis is used to replace expert scoring, which defines the grey relational grades of the bio-indicator indices(BI) and the water pollution indices(WPI).The structure of the AHP then is applied to link the bio-indicators and pollution, which enables the system to generate the primary factors necessary for the evaluation of the marine environment from both ecological and pollution perspectives. The new modeling system was used to evaluate and forecast the marine eco-environment in the Tianjin section of Bohai Bay, China. This case study highlights the key features of the approach. The bio-indicator indices(BI) and water pollution indices(WPI) monitoring data from 2002 to 2007 of 8 monitoring sites are input to this dynamic modeling system and the results illustrate the following: Pollution of the study area is currently serious and tends to be worse in the future, and the worst areas are sites 2, 3, and 4 based on their key pollution indices biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN)) which have the main effects on marine eco-system. These results can be used as the basis for marine environmental manager to define the key pollution factors, key pollution sites and the pollution trends of the marine environment of the whole study area.  相似文献   

新型表层套管二合一钻井技术的研究和应用     

陶林  刘小刚  左存海  朱国宁 《海洋地质译丛》2011,(2):91-95

随着渤海油田勘探钻井向深层发展,钻井风险逐渐增大,费用逐渐增加,如何有效降低作业成本是渤海勘探井作业一个比较棘手的课题。早期渤海井深4000m的勘探井身结构设计至少需要五层套管,但随着钻井技术的发展,渤海勘探井井身结构逐渐优化,节约了较多成本。针对渤海集柬勘探钻井实施的中339．71nm套管作为隔水套管的局限性,从稳定性、相关配套设备技术及操作要点等方面对中508nm＋Ф339．7nm表层套管二合一钻井技术的优越性进行了介绍。该技术的成功应用,势必将给今后的勘探钻井作业带来更好的经济效益。  相似文献