Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Pan Liu  Jun Xia 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4398-4413

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.  相似文献   

A Real-Time Analysis and Feedback System for Quality Control of Dam Foundation Grouting Engineering     

D. H. Zhong  F. G. Yan  M. C. Li  C. X. Huang  K. Fan  J. F. Tang 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(5):1947-1968

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Facies analysis of the Middle and Late Quaternary sediment infill of the northern Weihe Basin,Central China          下载免费PDF全文

Daniël S. Rits  Maarten A. Prins  Simon R. Troelstra  Ronald T. van Balen  Yan Zheng  Christiaan J. Beets  Bin Wang  Xiaoqiang Li  Jie Zhou  Hongbo Zheng 《第四纪科学杂志》2016,31(2):152-165

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Editorial to the 40th anniversary of the international research society INTERPRAEVENT: hazard analysis and mitigation of mass movements in an alpine environment     

Johannes Hübl  Florian Rudolf-Miklau  Gernot Fiebiger 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(2):421-423

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表面多次波衰减技术在渤海海峡应用效果     

孙运宝  赵铁虎  潘军  梅赛  冯京  秦轲 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2015,(2):179-184

浅水地震勘探对于了解近海底地质构造具有重要意义,目前已被广泛用于油气开发、近岸工程等领域。表面多次波的存在干扰了有效波信息,影响了资料品质,造成解释假象,如何有效地压制多次波,已成为浅水地震勘探中的关键问题。表面多次波衰减方法(SRME)是一种去除海面相关多次波效果较好的技术方法,但是,一般认为SRME技术并不适合于浅水区域。分析了SRME去除多次波的基本原理,并将其应用于海洋高分辨率浅水区域多次波的去除。实际处理效果表明,使用SRME技术处理后的叠加剖面多次波去除效果明显,剖面基底清楚,断面清晰。通过对SRME技术应用于浅水区域的探讨,证实了SRME技术在海洋高分辨率地震勘探浅水区域应用效果较好。  相似文献   

Effects of water quality of the basin caused by nitrogen loss from soil in drought     

B. B. Huang  D. H. Yan  H. Wang  B. F. Cheng  X. H. Cui 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(3):2357-2368

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Experimental Investigation About Influence of Pre-existing Fracture on Hydraulic Fracture Propagation Under Tri-axial Stresses     

Wan Cheng  Yan Jin  Qing Lin  Mian Chen  Yakun Zhang  Ce Diao  Bing Hou 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2015,33(3):467-473

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A new prediction model for mining subsidence deformation: the arc tangent function model     

Lei Nie  Hongfei Wang  Yan Xu  Zechuang Li 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(3):2185-2198

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A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Preservation of Re‐Os isotope signatures in pyrite throughout low‐T,high‐P eclogite facies metamorphism     

David van Acken  Wen Su  Jun Gao  Robert A. Creaser 《地学学报》2014,26(5):402-407

Pyrite in LT–HP eclogites from the western Tianshan orogenic belt yields a Re‐Os age of 378.1 ± 8.9 Ma, which is 30–70 Ma older than ages previously obtained for the same rocks using the Rb–Sr, Sm–Nd, Ar–Ar, U–Pb, and Lu–Hf isotope systems. The Tianshan LT–HP eclogite experienced temperatures of up to ~570 °C combined with pressures of up to 2.1 GPa during metamorphism. These conditions are below the transition of pyrite to pyrrhotite, which defines both pyrite stability and possibly its closure temperature for Re‐Os. Pyrite can preserve Re‐Os signatures through eclogite facies peak metamorphic conditions, and thus allow determination of the formation age of pyrite in the protolith.  相似文献