All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

A. K. Sahai  M. K. Soman  V. Satyan 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(4):291-302

The prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on a seasonal time scales has been attempted by various research groups using different techniques including artificial neural networks. The prediction of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales is not only scientifically challenging but is also important for planning and devising agricultural strategies. This article describes the artificial neural network (ANN) technique with error- back-propagation algorithm to provide prediction (hindcast) of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ANN technique is applied to the five time series of June, July, August, September monthly means and seasonal mean (June + July + August + September) rainfall from 1871 to 1994 based on Parthasarathy data set. The previous five years values from all the five time-series were used to train the ANN to predict for the next year. The details of the models used are discussed. Various statistics are calculated to examine the performance of the models and it is found that the models could be used as a forecasting tool on seasonal and monthly time scales. It is observed by various researchers that with the passage of time the relationships between various predictors and Indian monsoon are changing, leading to changes in monsoon predictability. This issue is discussed and it is found that the monsoon system inherently has a decadal scale variation in predictability. Received: 13 March 1999 / Accepted: 31 August 1999  相似文献   

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models     

Susmitha Joseph  A. K. Sahai  B. N. Goswami 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(4):651-667

Even though multi-model prediction systems may have better skill in predicting the interannual variability (IAV) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the overall performance of the system is limited by the skill of individual models (single model ensembles). The DEMETER project aimed at seasonal-to-interannual prediction is not an exception to this case. The reasons for the poor skill of the DEMETER individual models in predicting the IAV of monsoon is examined in the context of the influence of external and internal components and the interaction between intraseasonal variability (ISV) and IAV. Recently it has been shown that the ISV influences the IAV through very long breaks (VLBs; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) by generating droughts. Further, all VLBs are associated with an eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial region, facilitated by air–sea interaction on intraseasonal timescales. This VLB-drought–MJO relationship is analyzed here in detail in the DEMETER models. Analyses indicate that the VLB-drought relationship is poorly captured by almost all the models. VLBs in observations are generated through air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale and the models’ inability to simulate VLB-drought relationship is shown to be linked to the models’ inability to represent the air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale. Identification of this particular deficiency of the models provides a direction for improvement of the model for monsoon prediction.  相似文献   

Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Susmitha Joseph  A. K. Sahai  B. N. Goswami 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(7-8):1139-1153

Improved understanding of underlying mechanism responsible for Indian summer monsoon (ISM) droughts is important due to their profound socio-economic impact over the region. While some droughts are associated with ‘external forcing’ such as the El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), many ISM droughts are not related to any known ‘external forcing’. Here, we unravel a fundamental dynamic process responsible for droughts arising not only from external forcing but also those associated with internal dynamics. We show that most ISM droughts are associated with at least one very long break (VLB; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) and that the processes responsible for VLBs may also be the mechanism responsible for ISM droughts. Our analysis also reveals that all extended monsoon breaks (whether co-occurred with El-Niño or not) are associated with an eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific extending to the dateline and westward propagating Rossby waves between 10° and 25°N. The divergent Rossby wave associated with the dry phase of equatorial convection propagates westward towards Indian land, couple with the northward propagating dry phase and leads to the sustenance of breaks. Thus, the propensity of eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer is largely the cause of monsoon droughts. While short breaks are not accompanied by westerly wind events (WWE) over equatorial western Pacific favorable for initiating air–sea interaction, all VLBs are accompanied by sustained WWE. The WWEs associated with all VLB during 1975–2005 initiate air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale, extend the warm pool eastward allowing the convectively coupled MJO to propagate further eastward and thereby sustaining the divergent circulation over India and the monsoon break. The ocean–atmosphere coupling on interannual time scale (such as El-Niño) can also produce VLB, but not necessary.  相似文献   

Possible role of warm SST bias in the simulation of boreal summer monsoon in SINTEX-F2 coupled model     

Susmitha Joseph  A. K. Sahai  B. N. Goswami  Pascal Terray  Sebastian Masson  J.-J. Luo 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1561-1576

Reasonably realistic climatology of atmospheric and oceanic parameters over the Asian monsoon region is a pre-requisite for models used for monsoon studies. The biases in representing these features lead to problems in representing the strength and variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). This study attempts to unravel the ability of a state-of-the-art coupled model, SINTEX-F2, in simulating these characteristics of ISM. The coupled model reproduces the precipitation and circulation climatology reasonably well. However, the mean ISM is weaker than observed, as evident from various monsoon indices. A wavenumber–frequency spectrum analysis reveals that the model intraseasonal oscillations are also weaker-than-observed. One possible reason for the weaker-than-observed ISM arises from the warm bias, over the tropical oceans, especially over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, inherent in the model. This warm bias is not only confined to the surface layers, but also extends through most of the troposphere. As a result of this warm bias, the coupled model has too weak meridional tropospheric temperature gradient to drive a realistic monsoon circulation. This in turn leads to a weakening of the moisture gradient as well as the vertical shear of easterlies required for sustained northward propagation of rain band, resulting in weak monsoon circulation. It is also noted that the recently documented interaction between the interannual and intraseasonal variabilities of ISM through very long breaks (VLBs) is poor in the model. This seems to be related to the inability of the model in simulating the eastward propagating Madden–Julian oscillation during VLBs.  相似文献   

High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts: an objective assessment     

A. K. Sahai  S. Abhilash  R. Chattopadhyay  N. Borah  S. Joseph  S. Sharmila  M. Rajeevan 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(11-12):3129-3140

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Moisture dynamics of the northward and eastward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations: possible role of tropical Indo-west Pacific SST and circulation     

Prasanth A. Pillai  A. K. Sahai 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(3-4):1335-1350

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On the spicular density enhancement in the region of formation     

S. K. Sahai  R. J. Bessey 《Solar physics》1975,42(1):67-70

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Predictability of Indian Monsoon Circulation with High Resolution ECMWF Model in the Perspective of Tropical Forecast During the Tropical Convection Year 2008     

S. De  A. K. Sahai 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(12):2351-2368

To address some of the issues of project Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) and the project ATHENA as ongoing international activities, an endeavor has been made for the first time to study the predictability of Indian summer monsoon in the backdrop of tropical predictability using 850 hPa atmospheric circulations with the high resolution (T1279) ECMWF model during the boreal summer of 2008 as one of the focus years of YOTC. The major findings obtained from the statistical forecast have been substantiated by the dynamical prediction in terms of the systematic error energy, its growth rate and the attribution of the dominant nonlinear dynamical processes to error growth. The systematic error energy of T1279 (16 km resolution) ECMWF model are generated in African landmass, India and its adjoining oceanic region, in near equatorial west Pacific and around the Madagascar region where the root mean square errors are observed and the zonal wind anomaly shows poor forecast skill. As far as the inadequate predictability of Indian summer monsoon by T1279 ECMWF model (revealed from the results of project ATHENA) is concerned, the systematic error energy and the error growth over Arabian Sea, in the eastern and western India due to the nonlinear convergence and divergence of error flux along with the erroneous Mascarene high may possibly be the determining factors for not showing any discernable improvement in Indian monsoon during the medium range forecast up to 240 h. This work suggests that the higher resolution of ECMWF model may not necessarily lead to the better forecast of Indian monsoon circulations during 2008 unless a methodology can be devised to isolate the errors due to the nonlinear processes that are inherent within the system.  相似文献   

Strain and Crystallographic Fabric in Mesoscopic Ductile Shear Zones of Garhwal Himalaya     

Hari B. Srivastava  Atul Sahai  Surya N. Lal 《Gondwana Research》2000,3(3)

The MCT Zone of Bhagirathi valley of Garhwal Himalaya is characterized by numerous mesoscopic ductile shear zones. These shear zones are developed in response to nearly NNE-SSW maximum horizontal compression and provide an opportunity to study the variation in strain and crystallographic fabrics within the ductile shear zones.The grain shape and orientation of quartz under microscope reflect that strain is higher in the center and it progressively decreases towards the shear zone boundary. The preferred orientation of quartz c-axes across the shear zone suggests that the single girdle of the quartz c-axes are probably first developed at the shear zone boundary and become prominent in the center of shear zone with increase in the intensity of deformation. The strong crystallographic preferred orientation normal to foliation suggests that the internal deformation of the quartz might have taken place by dislocation creep mechanism exhibiting a non-coaxial deformation history.  相似文献   

Atmospheric wave propagations in the mesopause region observed by the OH(8,3) band,NaD, O₂A(8645Å) band and OI 5577 Å nightglow emissions     

H. Takahashi  P.P. Batista  Y. Sahai  B.R. Clemesha 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(4):381-384

Simultaneous measurements of the upper mesospheric NaD and OH(8,3) band emissions by meridional scanning photometers, and the OI 5577 Å, O₂ Atmospheric band at 8645 Å, NaD and OH(8,3) band emissions by multi-channel tilting filter type zenith photometers have been carried out at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), Brazil. On two nights during the period May–August 1983, the meridional scanning observations showed horizontal intensity gradients and phase propagations. The nocturnal intensity variations on one of these occasions 13–14 June 1983, which was a magnetically disturbed night with 4 ?k_p? 8, also showed vertical phase propagation. In this paper, we present these observations and discuss the possible effects of the horizontal wind system and of gravity wave propagation.  相似文献