Application of landslide hazard scenarios at annual scale in the Niraj River basin (Transylvania Depression,Romania)     

Roşca Sanda  Bilaşco Ştefan  Petrea Dănuţ  Fodorean Ioan  Vescan Iuliu  Filip Sorin 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(3):1573-1592

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Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Robert Leconte 《水文研究》2014,28(9):3482-3504

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The response in floodplain respiration of an alpine river to experimental inundation under different temperature regimes          下载免费PDF全文

Tatjana Simčič  Nataša Mori  Christian Hossli  Christopher T. Robinson  Michael Doering 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5438-5450

The respiratory potential [i.e. electron transport system activity (ETSA)] of soils and sediments from five floodplain habitats (channel, gravel, islands, riparian forest and grassland) of the Urbach River, Switzerland, and actual respiration rate (R) of the same samples exposed to experimental inundation were measured. Measurements were carried out at three incubation temperatures (4°C, 12°C and 20°C), and ETSA/R ratios (i.e. exploitation of the overall metabolic capacity) were investigated to better understand the effects of temperature and inundation on floodplain functional heterogeneity. Furthermore, ETSA/R ratios obtained during experimental inundation were compared with ETSA/R ratios from field measurements to investigate the exploitation in total metabolic potential at different conditions. Lowest ETSA and R were measured in samples from channel and gravel habitats, followed by those from islands. Substantially higher values were measured in soils from riparian forest and grassland. Both ETSA and R increased with increasing temperature in samples from all habitats, while the ETSA/R ratio decreased because of a rapid response in microbial community respiration to higher temperatures. The metabolic capacity exploitation (i.e. ETSA/R) during experimental inundation was lowest in predominantly terrestrial samples (riparian forest and grassland), indicating the weakest response to wetted conditions. Comparison of experimentally inundated and field conditions revealed that in rarely flooded soils, the metabolic capacity was less exploited during inundation than during non‐flooded conditions. The results suggest high sensitivity in floodplain respiration to changes in temperature and hydrological regime. ETSA/R ratios are considered good indicators of changes in metabolic activity of floodplain soils and sediments, and thus useful to estimate the impact of changes in hydrological regime or to evaluate success of floodplain restoration actions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impacts of variations in the strength and structure of El Niño events on Pacific rainfall in CMIP5 models     

Bradley F. Murphy  Hua Ye  François Delage 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(11-12):3171-3186

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One-dimensional consolidation of soil under multistage load based on continuous drainage boundary     

Yi--> Tian  Wenbing Wu  Guosheng Jiang  M. Hesham El Naggar  Guoxiong Mei  Meijuan Xu  Rongzhu Liang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(8):1170-1183

In engineering practice, a rapid loading rate can result in ground failure when the strength of soft soils is relatively low, and a multistage loading scheme is always utilized to deal with this situation. Firstly, under a multistage load and the continuous drainage boundary, an analytical solution of excess pore-water pressure and consolidation degree is obtained by virtue of the superposition formula of excess pore-water pressure, and a more general continuous drainage boundary under arbitrary time-dependent load is developed. Then, a comparison with existing analytical solutions is conducted to verify the present solution. A preliminary attempt on applying the continuous drainage boundary into the finite element model is made, and the feasibility of the numerical model for the one-dimensional consolidation under the continuous drainage boundary is verified by comparing the results calculated by FEM with that from present analytical solution. Finally, the consolidation behavior of soil is investigated in detail for different int erface parameters or loading scheme. The results show that, in land reclamation projects, a horizontal drain should be placed close to the boundary with a smaller interface parameter to improve the consolidation efficiency. The degree of consolidation is also related to the applied time-dependent load and interface parameters.  相似文献   

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities          下载免费PDF全文

Herbert Ssegane  Devendra M. Amatya  Augustine Muwamba  George M. Chescheir  Tim Appelboom  E.W. Tollner  Jami E. Nettles  Mohamed A. Youssef  François Birgand  R.W. Skaggs 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3458-3471

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.  相似文献   

An original semi‐discrete approach to assess gas conductivity of concrete structures          下载免费PDF全文

M. Ezzedine El Dandachy  M. Briffaut  F. Dufour  S. Dal Pont 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(6):940-956

For civil engineering structures with a tightness role, structural permeability is a key issue. In this context, this paper presents a new proposition of a numerical modelling of leakage rate through a cracked concrete structure undergoing mode I cracking. The mechanical state of the material, considered in the framework of continuum mechanics based on finite element modelling, is described by means of the stress‐based nonlocal damage model which takes into account the stress state and provides realistic local mechanical fields. A semi‐discrete method based on the strong discontinuity approach to estimate crack opening is then considered in the post‐treatment phase. Using a Poiseuille's like relation, the coupling between the mechanical state of the material and its dry gas conductivity is performed. For validation purposes, an original experimental campaign is conducted on a dry concrete disc loaded in a splitting setup. During the loading, gas conductivity and digital image correlation analysis are performed. The comparison with the 3D experimental mechanical global response highlights the performance of the mechanical model. The comparison between crack openings measured by digital image correlation and estimated by the strong discontinuity method shows a good agreement. Finally, the results of the semi‐discrete approach coupled with the gas conductivity compared with experimental data show a good estimation of the structural conductivity. Consequently, if the mechanical problem is well modelled at the global scale, then the proposed approach provides good estimation of gas conductivity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin     

Mohammed El Bastawesy  Safwat Gabr  Kevin White 《水文研究》2013,27(2):196-205

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Root‐related rhodochrosite and concretionary siderite formation in oxygen‐deficient conditions induced by a ground‐water table rise          下载免费PDF全文

Maciej J. Bojanowski  Elżbieta Jaroszewicz  Adrijan Košir  Maciej Łoziński  Leszek Marynowski  Anna Wysocka  Arkadiusz Derkowski 《Sedimentology》2016,63(3):523-551

Sedimentological, mineralogical, stable carbon and oxygen isotope determinations and biomarker analyses were performed on siderite concretions occurring in terrestrial silts to understand their formation and to characterize the sedimentary and diagenetic conditions favouring their growth. High δ¹³C values (6·4‰ on average) indicate that siderite precipitated in an anoxic environment where bacterial methanogenesis operated. The development of anoxic conditions during shallow burial was induced by a change in sedimentary environment from flood plain to swamp, related to a rise of the ground‐water table. Large amounts of decaying plant debris led to efficient oxygen consumption within the pore‐water in the peat. Oxygen depletion, in combination with a decrease in sedimentation rate, promoted anoxic diagenetic conditions under the swamp and favoured abundant siderite precipitation. This shows how a change in sedimentary conditions can have a profound impact on the early‐diagenetic environment and carbonate authigenesis. The concretions contain numerous rhizoliths; they are cemented with calcium‐rhodochrosite, a feature which has not been reported before. The rhodochrosite cement has negative δ¹³C values (?16·5‰ on average) and precipitated in suboxic conditions due to microbial degradation of roots coupled to manganese reduction. The exceptional preservation of the epidermis/exodermis and xylem vessels of former root tissues indicates that the rhodochrosite formed shortly after the death of a root in water‐logged sediments. Rhodochrosite precipitated during the initial stages of concretionary growth in suboxic microenvironments within roots, while siderite cementation occurred simultaneously around them in anoxic conditions. These suboxic microenvironments developed because oxygen was transported from the overlying oxygenated soil into sediments saturated with anoxic water via roots acting as permeable conduits. This model explains how separate generations of carbonate cements having different mineralogy and isotopic compositions, which would conventionally be regarded as cements precipitated sequentially in different diagenetic zones during gradual burial, can form simultaneously in shallow burial settings where strong redox gradients exist around vertically oriented permeable root structures.  相似文献   

Ionic conductivity in gem-quality single-crystal alkali feldspar from the Eifel: temperature,orientation and composition dependence     

Hamid El Maanaoui  Fabian Wilangowski  Aditya Maheshwari  Hans-Dieter Wiemhöfer  Rainer Abart  Nicolaas A. Stolwijk 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2016,43(5):327-340

We measured the ion conductivity of single-crystal alkali feldspar originating from two different locations in the Eifel/Germany, named Volkesfeld and Rockeskyller sanidine and having potassium site fractions \(C_\mathrm{K}\) of 0.83 and 0.71, respectively. The dc conductivities resulting from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy over the temperature range of 300–900 \(^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) show a weak composition dependence but pronounced differences between the b-direction [\(\perp (010)\)] and \(c^{*}\)-direction [\(\perp (001)\)] of the monoclinic feldspar structure. Conductivity activation energies obtained from the observed linear Arrhenius plots are close to 1.2 eV in all cases, which is closely similar to the activation energies of the \(^{22}\mathrm{Na}\) tracer diffusivity in the same crystals. Taking into account literature data on K tracer diffusion and diffusion correlation effects, the present results point to a predominance of the interstitialcy mechanism over the vacancy mechanism in mass and charge transport on the alkali sublattice in potassium-rich alkali feldspar.  相似文献