Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically DownscaledPredictors： Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Cecilia HELLSTR?M  Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2003,20(6):951-958

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.  相似文献   

Constructing temporal and spatial water vapor figures by GPS remote sensing along slant rays     

MAO Hui    MAO JieTai  BI YanMeng  LI ChengCai? & LIU XiaoYang Department of Atmospheric Sciences  School of Physics  Peking University  Beijing  China  Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau  Shenzhen  China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(2):296-305

A Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver can generally track 5-7 rays from GPS satellites at any moment, and water vapor along these ray paths (slant-path water vapor, SWV) may be retrieved using the methods developed in recent years. This paper suggests two new parameters-absolute vertical SWV (VSWV) and relative VSWV derived from SWV, and their temporal and spatial figures can reflect the heterogeneous distribution and variation of water vapor field. This approach has been applied to the weather diagnoses in a severe storm event in Beijing during July 2004, and it is concluded that the temporal and spatial figures of absolute VSWV and relative VSWV can be useful in monitoring the evolution of water vapor field and be potential in better understanding the precipitation process.  相似文献   

空间结构函数在北京地区气象观测站网设计中的应用   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

赵瑞霞李伟  王玉彬付强 《应用气象学报》2007,18(1):94-101

通过统计1978—2000年北京东南低地形区有关台站在春季、夏季、秋季、冬季的逐日平均气温和水汽压的结构函数, 分季节分析了该地区这两个二类气象要素的线段及平面内插精度和台站间距的对应关系, 并根据内插标准误差不超过观测标准误差的原则, 对上述两要素在北京东南低地形区的合理布站方案及间距进行了估算, 可以为2008年北京奥运会气象服务系统建设中气象台站布网建设提供一定的依据。结果表明, 正三角形排列方案为北京东南地区二类气象台站的最佳布站方案, 且布站精度应小于等于16 km。  相似文献   

新疆东天山南缘富钾硝酸盐盐湖成矿带地质特征及资源潜力   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

葛文胜  刘斌  邱斌  宋文杰  蔡克勤  付强 《矿床地质》2010,29(4):640-648

新疆东部是中国主要的盐类矿床聚集区,在东天山南缘形成了巨大的富钾硝酸盐盐湖成矿带。文章在系统总结东天山南缘富钾硝酸盐成矿带地质特征、成矿条件特征和晶间卤水特征的基础上,分析了富钾硝酸盐矿床成矿的地质条件、物质来源和气候因素,以及已有矿床的资源状况和资源潜力,指出富钾硝酸盐矿床是一种特殊类型的盐类矿床,特殊的构造条件是该类矿床物质来源和成矿作用发生的重要因素,晶间卤水和层间、裂隙卤水具有较大的资源潜力。加强该区富钾硝酸盐矿床的研究和勘查评价工作,不仅可以丰富中国陆相盐类矿床成盐理论,而且可以为罗布泊钾盐基地提供后续资源保障,同时也有利于新疆新型钾、氮肥工业基地的建立。  相似文献   

基于免疫粒子群算法的马斯京根模型参数识别     

甘丽云  付强  孙颖娜  郭维 《水文》2010,30(3)

目前在河道汇流计算中广泛应用的是马斯京根模型,该模型参数的优化求解是影响能否精确模拟实测水文过程的关键问题.以往的模型参数求解大多采用试错法、矩法等方法,计算过程繁琐,计算精度不高,影响到模型的模拟精度.针对此类问题,笔者将免疫原理与粒子群优化算法有机结合.提出了免疫粒子群优化新方法,有效解决了传统方法的计算结果精度不高的问题,并在马斯京根模型参数优化求解中得以应用,结果表明免疫粒子群算法的计算结果精度令人满意,为河道洪水演算方面研究提供了一种新的研究方法和研究模式.  相似文献   

Soil and vegetation seasonal changes in the grazing Andean Mountain grasslands     

MU?OZ María ángeles  FAZ ángel 《山地科学学报》2014,11(5):1123-1137

Andean grasslands ecosystems are fragile environments with rigorous climatologic conditions and low and variable food for the grazing. The Apolobamba area is located in the Bolivian Andean Mountains. Its high grasslands provide a natural habitat for wild and domestic camelids such as vicuna（Vicugna vicugna） and alpaca（Lama pacos）. The botanical diversity plays an essential role in maintaining vital ecosystem functions. The objectives of this research were to determine the seasonal changes in soil properties, to study the vegetation changes during the wet and dry seasons and the influence of soil properties and camelid densities on the vegetation in the Apolobamba grasslands. Four zones with different vicuna populations were selected to be studied. The following soil parameters were determined： total organic carbon, total nitrogen, available phosphorous, cation exchange capacity, exchangeable cations, pH and texture. The vegetation season changes were studied through botanical identification, above-ground biomass, plant cover and species richness. Results showed that some soil properties such as C/N ratio, CEC, silt and clay percentages kept stable against the seasonal changes. Generally, soil nutrients were relatively higher during the dry season in the surface and subsurface. The results did not point out the predominant vegetation growth during the wet season. The seasonal vegetation growth depended on each species. Thegood soil fertility corresponded to the highest plant cover. Soil fertility presented no influence on the above-ground biomass of the collected species. The negative influence of camelid grazing on soil properties could not be assessed. However, overgrazing could affect some plant species. Therefore, protection is needed in order to preserve the biodiversity in the Andean mountain grasslands.  相似文献   

Biodiversity and invasibility: Distribution patterns of invasive plant species in the Himalayas,Nepal   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

BHATTARAI Khem Raj  M?REN Inger Elisabeth  SUBEDI Suresh Chandra 《山地科学学报》2014,11(3):688-696

Invasive plant species are exerting a serious threat to biological diversity in many regions of the world. To understand plant invasions this study aims to test which of the two plant invasiveness hypotheses; ‘low native diversity' vs. ‘high native diversity', is supported by the regional distribution patterns of invasive plant species in the Himalayas,Nepal. This study is based on data retrieved from published literatures and herbarium specimens. The relationship between invasive plant species distribution patterns and that of native plant species is elucidated by scatter plots, as well as by generalized linear models. The native plant species and invasive plant species have similar distribution patterns and the maximum number of invasive plant species is found in the same altitudinal range where the highest richness for native tree species is found. There is a clear trend of higher invasive plant richness in regions where native tree species richness is relatively high.Consequently, the native plant richness is highest in the central phytogeographic region, followed by the eastern and the western regions, respectively. The invasive plant species also follows a similar trend.Additionally, the invasive plant species richness was positively correlated with anthropogenic factors such as human population density and the number of visiting tourists. This study supports the hypothesis that ‘high native diversity' supports or facilitates invasive plant species. Further, it indicates that nativeand invasive plant species may require similar natural conditions, but that the invasive plant species seem more dependent and influenced by anthropogenic disturbance factors.  相似文献   

Earthquakes as a potential contributing factor to climate change at multi-decadal scale     

KeYan Fang  Heikki Sepp? 《寒旱区科学》2014,6(2):0131-0138

Climate changes at the multi-decadal scale are often associated with multi-decadal phase shifts of the dominant sea surface temperature （SST） pattern, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The PDO may be associated with the North Pacific branch of the Thermohaline Circulation （THC）. Great earthquakes （M 〉8）, particularly along the route of the THC, might modulate the vertical mixing and bring deep, cold water to surface, contributing to multi-decadal changes in surface currents and the PDO. This may eventually lead to multi-decadal climate changes. We tested this hypothesis for the Pacific Ocean where great earthquakes have been frequently recorded. We found associations between the PDO and recurrent earthquakes along the route of the deep currents of the THC in the modern period since 1900, and relationships between hydroclimate change in Monsoonal Asia and historical earthquakes since 1300. However, it should be noted that this hypothesis is very preliminary and has many gaps that needs further evidences from more observational records and modeling studies.  相似文献   

吉林省中部两次强对流天气过程比较分析     

张莹莹  胡中明  巩宪伟  付强 《吉林气象》2014,(4)

2013年6月3日和7月2日,长春地区先后发生了冰雹及暴雨天气。利用常规观测资料、雷达回波资料以及NECP 1°×1°再分析资料,对上述两次强对流过程进行分析和比较。结果表明:两次天气发生的大尺度环流背景较为相似,暴雨天气有两条水汽通道建立,湿层较厚,存在明显的暖平流;冰雹天气中低层有明显冷空气切入,并且存在一个明显的上升运动中心。从雷达回波特征分析可以看出冰雹天气回波强度要远远大于暴雨回波;暴雨过程速度场存在一条辐合线,该辐合线东移转向且零速度线成S型;冰雹的回波顶比暴雨天气的回波顶高度高,并且强回波区所达到的高度也比暴雨高得多。垂直累计液态水含量产品VIL在这两次天气的对比分析中也有很好的指示意义。  相似文献   

Seasonal changes in sea ice conditions along the Northeast Passage in 2007 and 2012     

Lei Ruibo  Li Na  Li Chunhua  Jónsdóttir Ingibj?rg 《极地研究(英文版)》2014,(4)

Remote sensing data from passive microwave and satellite-based altimeters, associated with the data measured underway, were used to characterize seasonal and spatial changes in sea ice conditions along...  相似文献