Performance of Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis (MMCCA) for prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using GCMs output     

Ankita Singh  Nachiketa Acharya  Uma Charan Mohanty  Gopbandhu Mishra 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2013,345(2):62-72

The emerging advances in the field of dynamical prediction of monsoon using state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCMs) have led to the development of various multi model ensemble techniques (MMEs). In the present study, the concept of Canonical Correlation Analysis is used for making MME (referred as Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis or MMCCA) for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during June-July-August-September (JJAS). This method has been employed on the rainfall outputs of six different GCMs for the period 1982 to 2008. The prediction skill of ISMR by MMCCA is compared with the simple composite method (SCM) (i.e. arithmetic mean of all GCMs), which is taken as a benchmark. After a rigorous analysis through different skill metrics such as correlation coefficient and index of agreement, the superiority of MMCCA over SCM is illustrated. Performance of both models is also evaluated during six typical monsoon years and the results indicate the potential of MMCCA over SCM in capturing the spatial pattern during extreme years.  相似文献   

Markov chain model to study the occurrence of pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar,India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Surajit Chattopadhyay  Nachiketa Acharya  Goutami Chattopadhyay  Siripurapu Kiran Prasad  Uma Charan Mohanty 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2012,344(10):473-482

The present work deals with pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar belonging to the state of Orissa, India. A Markovian approach has been adopted to discern the probabilistic behavior of the time series of the occurrence and non-occurrence of this hazardous weather event by introducing a dichotomy within the time series. After a painstaking analysis through chi-square tests, we have identified serial independence in a few years and first-order two-state Markovian dependence in a few years (2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006). Finally, for the years of first-order two-state Markovian dependence, it has been observed that the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of thunderstorm gets higher if the state of the previous day is similar to that of the current day. Furthermore, the probability of getting non-thunderstorm day followed by non-thunderstorm day is higher than the probability of getting thunderstorm day followed by thunderstorm day. It has been also observed that the unconditional climatological probability of the occurrence of severe pre-monsoon thunderstorm implied by the Markov chain is closely in agreement with the observed relative frequencies. However, it could be revealed that Markov chain cannot, in general, be suggested as a predictive tool for pre-monsoon thunderstorms under study without investigating the serial dependence inherent in the time series.  相似文献   

Impact of atmospheric and physical forcings on biogeochemical cycling of dissolved oxygen and nutrients in the coastal Bay of Bengal   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

V. V. S. S. Sarma  B. Sridevi  K. Maneesha  T. Sridevi  S. A. Naidu  V. R. Prasad  V. Venkataramana  T. Acharya  M. D. Bharati  Ch. V. Subbaiah  B. S. Kiran  N. P. C. Reddy  V. V. Sarma  Y. Sadhuram  T. V. R. Murty 《Journal of Oceanography》2013,69(2):229-243

Time-series observations were conducted off Visakhapatnam, central west coast of Bay of Bengal, from October 2007 to April 2009 to examine the influence of physical and atmospheric processes on water column nutrients biogeochemistry. The thermal structure displayed inversions of 0.5 to 1.0° C during winter and were weaker in summer. The water column was vertically stratified during the entire study period and was stronger during October–November 2007 and August–December 2008 compared to other study periods. High concentrations of chlorophyll-a and nutrients were associated with the extreme atmospheric events. The strong relationship of nutrients with salinity indicates that physical processes, such as circulation, mixing and river discharge, have a significant control on phytoplankton blooms in the coastal Bay of Bengal. Phosphate seems to be a controlling nutrient during winter whereas availability of light and suspended matter limits production in summer. Formation of low oxygen conditions were observed in the bottom waters due to enhanced primary production by extreme atmospheric events; however, re-oxygenation of bottom waters through sinking of oxygen-rich surface waters by a warm core (anticyclonic) eddy led to its near recovery. This study reveals that atmospheric and physical processes have significant impacts on the water column biogeochemistry in the coastal Bay of Bengal.  相似文献   

Wind-induced hydrodynamic changes impact on sediment resuspension for large,shallow Lake Taihu,China     

Abdul Jalil  Yiping Li  Ke Zhang  Xiaomeng Gao  Wencai Wang  Hafiz Osama Sarwar Khan  Baozhu Pan  Salar Ali  Kumud Acharya 《国际泥沙研究》2019,34(3):205-215

The internal sediment release is a key factor controlling eutrophication processes in large,shallow lakes.Sediment resuspension is associated with the wave and current induced shear stress in large,shallow lakes.The current study investigated the wind field impacts on sediment resuspension from the bottom at Meiliang Bay of large,shallow Lake Taihu.The impacts of the wind field on the wave,current,and wave-current combined shear stresses were calculated.The critical wind speed range was 4–6 m/s after which wave and current shear stress started to increase abruptly,and onshore wind directions were found to be mainly responsible for greater shear stress at the bottom of Lake Taihu.A second order polynomial fitting correlation was found between wave(R^2 0.4756)and current(R^2 0.4466)shear stresses with wind speed.Wave shear stress accounted for 92.5% of the total shear stress at Meiliang Bay.The critical wave shear stress and critical total shear stress were 0.13 N/m^2 for sediment resuspension whereas the current shear stress was 0.019 N/m^2 after which suspended sediment concentrations(SSC)increased abruptly.A second order polynomial fitting correlation was found between wave(R^2 0.739),current(R^2 0.6264),and total shear stress(R^2 0.7394)with SSC concentrations at Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu.The sediment resuspension rate was 120 to 738 g/m^2/d during 4–6 m/s onshore winds while offshore winds contributed ≥ 200 g/m^2/d.The study results reveal the driving mechanism for understanding the role of the wind field in sediment resuspension while considering wind speed and direction as control parameters to define wave and current shear stresses.  相似文献   

多目标优化下平原河网引调水改善水环境效果评估     

潘泓哲  李一平  唐春燕  Kumud Achary  姚向阳  张剑  朱雅  程一鑫  程月  于珊  岳桢铻 《湖泊科学》2021,33(4):1138-1152

引调水是改善平原河网地区水环境的重要方法之一,通过构建太湖流域走马塘东南片平原河网区一维水动力水质数学模型,研究不同引调水方案对区域水环境改善效果,确定引调水过程中的异质性因子.从决策目标、水质指标、空间指标3个层面综合考虑,构建环境效益与经济效益结合的多目标函数及评价体系,对引调水方案进行评估优选.结果表明:引调水流量较大时,能够在一定程度上改善区域水环境状况,规划方案下引调水5 d后,高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总磷的平均改善率分别为30.7%、22.2%、26.4%;引调水时,区域河网中不同空间点位、不同水质指标之间的水质改善过程与效果都存在一定异质性;引调水水量、调度模式及污染源分布都会对调水后的河网区水质产生差异性影响;本研究建立的多目标评价体系较现有方法能够有效涵盖引调水中存在的异质性因子,从多个目标层面优选引调水方案,实现水量水质综合优化调控,为平原河网地区水环境长效管理与科学决策提供理论参考.  相似文献