Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study     

Anabele Lindner  Cira Souza Pitombo  Samille Santos Rocha  José Alberto Quintanilha 《地球空间信息科学学报》2016,19(4):245-254

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.  相似文献   

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand     

Alberto E. Patiño Douce 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(1):71-90

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.  相似文献   

DNA and fluorescein tracer tests to study the recharge,groundwater flowpath and hydraulic contact of aquifers in the Umbria-Marche limestone ridge (central Apennines,Italy)     

Lucia Aquilanti  Francesca Clementi  Torquato Nanni  Stefano Palpacelli  Alberto Tazioli  Paola Maria Vivalda 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(7):626

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Snowmelt contribution to the sustainability of the irrigated Mendoza’s Oasis,Argentina: an isotope study     

Hector Massone  Daniel Martinez  Alberto Vich  Mauricio Quiroz Londoño  Darío Trombotto  Sebastián Grondona 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(6):520

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The Cabo Frio upwelling overrides geographical patterns in the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris Spence Bate, 1888 (Decapoda: Penaeidae)     

Abner Carvalho‐Batista  Joo Alberto Farinelli Pantaleo  Antonio Leo Castilho  Rogrio Caetano da Costa 《Marine Ecology》2019,40(2)

Upwelling areas are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet, influencing the biology of marine organisms. This study investigated the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris in two regions in southeastern Brazil, one inside (Macaé—Rio de Janeiro State) and one outside (Ubatuba—State of São Paulo) the Cabo Frio upwelling area. The aim was to verify the influence of the upwelling phenomenon on the abundance, growth, longevity, size of sexual maturity, and reproductive period of the species. In total, 188,902 individuals were captured at Macaé and 3,461 at Ubatuba. Individuals captured at Macaé showed larger maximum size, higher longevity, and slower growth rate, besides reaching sexual maturity at larger sizes than at Ubatuba. Continuous reproduction was observed in both regions, with juvenile recruitment peaks in spring and summer. Local conditions observed at Macaé were influenced by the Cabo Frio upwelling zone, characterized by productive and cooler waters that are around 20°C during most of the year. The upwelling phenomenon is probably the main factor influencing the population parameters studied here, changing the geographic patterns previously observed for the variation of these parameters in A. longinaris.  相似文献   

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height     

Fernando J. Mndez  Melisa Menndez  Alberto Luceo  Raúl Medina  Nicholas E. Graham 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(1):131-138

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.  相似文献   

The amphipod Talitrus saltator as a bioindicator of human trampling on sandy beaches     

Ugolini A  Ungherese G  Somigli S  Galanti G  Baroni D  Borghini F  Cipriani N  Nebbiai M  Passaponti M  Focardi S 《Marine environmental research》2008,65(4):349-357

The present paper assesses the use of the supralittoral amphipod Talitrus saltator as a bioindicator of the effects of human trampling on the supralittoral sandy band. Samplings in delimited areas were carried out at sites subjected to different human impact. The results showed a strong negative correlation between the number of swimmers and the sandhopper population density, while there was no clear relationship between sandhopper abundance and the other factors considered: granulometry, compactness and organic carbon content of the sand, and trace metal contents in the sand and sandhoppers. A field test of trampling conducted in a confined space showed its direct negative effect on sandhopper survival. However, trace metal analysis confirmed the ability of T. saltator to bioaccumulate some elements (Hg, Zn, Cu, Cd). Our study demonstrates that T. saltator is a good bioindicator of human impact in the supralittoral zone of sandy shores.  相似文献   

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081     

Diego G. Lloveras  Alberto M. Vásquez  Federico A. Nuevo  Richard A. Frazin 《Solar physics》2017,292(10):153

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.  相似文献   

Joint editorial – Fostering innovation and improving impact assessment for journal publications in hydrology     

Demetris Koutsoyiannis  Günter Blöschl  András Bárdossy  Christophe Cudennec  Denis Hughes  Alberto Montanari 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1170-1173

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A thermo-plastic constitutive law for brittle-plastic behavior of rocks at high temperatures     

Tomasz Hueckel  Alberto Peano  Rita Pellegrini 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,143(1-3):483-510

Mechanical properties of rocks change under the influence of, temperature. Stress at the onset of yielding, ultimate strength, dilatancy, strain hardening and softening, and the confining pressure at brittle-ductile transition are all reduced by the increasing temperature. This study presents a framework of constitutive modeling of thermo-brittle-plastic behavior of rocks which encompasses these changes. The constitutive law is based on a thermo-plasticity theory first proposed for metals byPrager (1958). Two phenomenological mechanisms have been identified as central for the modeling: temperature dependence of the yield locus (thermal softening), and temperature dependence of the strain-hardening function (thermally enhanced ductility). Material parameters for two rocks, Carrara marble and Westerly granite, were determined on the basis of additional hypotheses. These parameters are used in numerical simulations of triaxial tests at different temperatures. The obtained stress-strain curves compare well to the experimental results. The changes with temperature in the stress at the onset of yielding are more accurately reproduced that the evolution of hardening or softening. Suggestions for possible improvements and future research directions are indicated.  相似文献