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11.
Giannini  Alessandra  Kaplan  Alexey 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):449-466
Climatic Change - We exploit the multi-model ensemble produced by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to synthesize current understanding of external forcing of Sahel...  相似文献   
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The NE portion of Gela Basin in the Sicily Channel is affected by multiple slope failures originated during the late‐Quaternary. Basin sequences show evidence of stacked acoustically transparent and/or chaotic units, characterized by irregular upper surfaces, interpreted as mass‐transport deposits. The seafloor morphology also shows evidence of both old, partially buried, as well as recent slide products. Two recent slides exposed at seafloor, only 6 km apart (Twin Slides), are similar in geomorphological parameters, age and multistage evolution. Multistage failure of Twin Slides evolved from mud flows, derived from the extensive failure of less consolidated post‐glacial units, to localized slides (second stage of failure) affecting older and more consolidated materials. Although Twin Slides are very close to each other and have similar runout and fall height, they produced very dissimilar organization of the displaced masses, likely reflecting the distinct source units affected by failures. Integrating geophysical, sedimentological, structural and palaeontological data, a detailed investigation was conducted to determine the size and internal geometry of this mass‐transport complex, to explain the differentiated product and to shed light on its predisposing factors, triggers and timing.  相似文献   
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Journal of Geographical Systems - Colombia is undergoing major changes in mortality patterns. National- and department-level cause-specific analyses have previously been carried out, but very...  相似文献   
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This paper is devoted to the dynamics in a central gravity field of two point masses connected by a massless tether (the so called “spring–mass” model of tethered satellite systems). Only the motions with straight strained tether are studied, while the case of “slack” tether is not considered. It is assumed that the distance between the point masses is substantially smaller than the distance between the system’s center of mass and the field center. This assumption allows us to treat the motion of the center of mass as an unperturbed Keplerian one, so to focus our study on attitude dynamics. A particular attention is given to the family of planar periodic motions in which the center of mass moves on an elliptic orbit, and the point masses never leave the orbital plane. If the eccentricity tends to zero, the corresponding family admits as a limit case the relative equilibrium in which the tether is elongated along the line joining the center of mass with the field center. We study the bifurcations and the stability of these planar periodic motions with respect to in-plane and out-of-plane perturbations. Our results show that the stable motions take place if the eccentricity of the orbit is sufficiently small.  相似文献   
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We provide a result of non-analytic integrability of the so-called J 2-problem. Precisely by using the Lerman theorem we are able to prove the existence of a region of the phase space, where the dynamical system exhibits chaotic motions.  相似文献   
18.
A global perspective on African climate   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a “tropospheric stabilization” mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals.  相似文献   
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Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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