Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters     

Giovanni Dolif  Andre Engelbrecht  Alessandro Jatobá  Antônio José Dias da Silva  José Orlando Gomes  Marcos R. S. Borges  Carlos A. Nobre  Paulo Victor R. de Carvalho 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1831-1847

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.  相似文献   

A nonlinear macroelement model for the seismic analysis of masonry buildings   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Andrea Penna  Sergio Lagomarsino  Alessandro Galasco 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(2):159-179

The macroelement technique for modelling the nonlinear response of masonry panels is particularly efficient and suitable for the analysis of the seismic behaviour of complex walls and buildings. The paper presents a macroelement model specifically developed for simulating the cyclic in‐plane response of masonry walls, with possible applications in nonlinear static and dynamic analysis of masonry structures. The model, starting from a previously developed macroelement model, has been refined in the representation of flexural–rocking and shear damage modes, and it is capable of fairly simulating the experimental response of cyclic tests performed on masonry piers. By means of two internal degrees of freedom, the two‐node macroelement permits to represent the coupling of axial and flexural response as well as the interaction of shear and flexural damage. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A Warning System for Stromboli Volcano Based on Statistical Analysis     

Giuseppe Nunnari  Giuseppe Puglisi  Alessandro Spata 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(8):1619-1641

In this paper we describe a warning system based on statistical analysis for the purpose of monitoring ground deformation at the Sciara del Fuoco (Stromboli Volcano, Sicily). After a statistical analysis of ground deformation time-series measured at Stromboli by the monitoring system known as THEODOROS (THEOdolite and Distancemeter Robot Observatory of Stromboli), the paper describes the solution adopted for implementing the warning system. A robust statistical index has been defined in order to evaluate the movements of the area. A fuzzy approach has been proposed to evaluate an AI (Alarm Intensity) index which indicates the level of hazard of the Sciara del Fuoco sliding.  相似文献   

Spectroscopic Characterization of Compost at Different Maturity Stages   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Riccardo Spaccini  Alessandro Piccolo 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2008,36(2):152-157

We studied the physicochemical and molecular changes of compost during its maturation within 60, 90, and 150 days after the composting process. Moreover, the changes were also studied in compost residues after sequential removal of lipidic compounds. Infrared DRIFT spectrometry and ¹³C‐CPMAS‐NMR spectroscopy indicate that the molecular composition of compost changes dramatically during the stabilization period. The most decomposable components, mainly represented by bioavailable lipidic and peptidic structures, were progressively mineralized passing from 60 days to longer periods of compost stabilization. At increasing maturity stages, the composition of organic matter underwent a progressive enrichment in stable hydrophobic and ligno‐cellulosic material. The sequential extraction of lipidic compounds allowed an improved characterization of substrates and confirmed the outlined progressive transformation of compost. Compost may well be chosen on the basis of selected characteristics for environmental applications.  相似文献   

Dissolution/crystallization kinetics recorded in the 2002–2003 lavas of Stromboli (Italy)     

Alessandro Fornaciai  Patrizia Landi  Pietro Armienti 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(6):631-641

On 28 December 2002, new vents opened on the flanks of Stromboli, just below the summit craters, interrupting the persistent activity of the volcano with a 7-month-long effusive eruption. We here report on the plagioclase size distribution (PlgSD) in lava samples collected following the chronology of the 2002–2003 eruption. Data reveal a linear PlgSD similar to that found in samples of normal Stromboli activity, indicating that the switch from Strombolian explosive to effusive activity is not associated with changes in texture. Nevertheless, the crystal size distribution slopes and intercepts exhibit slight sinusoidal temporal variations that are here ascribed to a magma supply mechanism able to induce “resonance” in the crystal size distribution, with an amplitude that depends on the supply rate.  相似文献   

Reply to comments on “Depth–energy and depth–force relationships in open channel flows II: Analytical findings for power-law cross sections” by A. Valiani,V. Caleffi [Adv. Water Resour. 32 (2009) 213–224]     

Alessandro Valiani  Valerio Caleffi 《Advances in water resources》2009

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First study of fault trench stratigraphy at Mt. Etna volcano, Southern Italy: understanding Holocene surface faulting along the Moscarello fault     

Raffaele Azzaro  Domenico Bella  Luca Ferreli  Alessandro Maria Michetti  Federica Santagati  Leonello Serva  Eutizio Vittori 《Journal of Geodynamics》2000,29(3-5)

Paleoseismology, the study of past earthquakes based on their geological record in the stratigraphy and landscape, is a successful newly developing field of research. The application of fault trench studies in volcanic environments is one of the youngest branches of paleoseismology. In this paper, we present the results of the first exploratory trenches excavated at Mt. Etna in Sicily, the largest European volcano. Modern surface faulting at Etna is a very well known feature, which poses significant hazard to the local community, both in terms of ground displacement of essential lifelines and ground shacking from frequent damaging earthquakes. However, while the geomorphology and the seismicity of the active fault in the Etna region consistently show very high rates of tectonic activity, the Holocene cumulative throw and slip-rates, along with the nature (coseismic vs. creeping fault slip), dimension and timing of the displacement events, are still poorly constrained. For this purpose, we selected as a sample area the Moscarello fault, one of the most outstanding segment of the Timpe system of active normal faults in the volcano’s lower eastern flank. Displaced landforms and volcanic units at the Fondo Macchia basin, in the central sector of this fault, indicate some hundreds of meters of vertical offset in the last ca. 80 kyr, with a long-term slip-rate substantially higher than 1.5–2.0 mm/yr. According to the historical sources and instrumental observations, the Moscarello fault ruptured four times in the last 150 years during shallow (H < 5 km) and moderate magnitude (M < 4.8) earthquakes. These events were associated with severe damage in a narrow epicentral area (macroseismic intensities up to the IX–X grade of the MSK scale) and extensive surface faulting (end-to-end rupture length up to 6 km, vertical offsets up to 90 cm). This clearly indicates very high modern rates of deformation along this fault. We conducted trench investigations at the Fondo Macchia site, in a point where eyewitnesses observed ca. 20 cm of coseismic vertical displacement after the April 21, 1971, M_s=3.7, earthquake. The excavated sections provided direct stratigraphic evidence for a vertical slip-rate of 1.4–2.7 mm/yr in the last ca. 6 kyr. This should be regarded as a minimum slip-rate for the central section of the fault. We explored a single scarp at a single site, while we know from recent historical observations that several parallel scarps may rupture coseismically at Fondo Macchia. Thus, the relevant deformation rate documented for the modern period might be likely extended back in the past to a time-span of some thousands of years at least. As expected, for such a volcanic environment, the activity rates of the Moscarello fault are also significantly higher than for the Apennines normal faults, typically showing slip-rates lower than 1 mm/yr. The agriculturally reworked trench hangingwall stratigraphy did not allow to recognize individual displacement events. Nevertheless, the sedimentary structures observed in the trench footwall strongly suggest that, as for the last 150–200 years of detailed historical record, fault behavior at Fondo Macchia is governed by coseismic surface displacement rather than fault creep. This research confirms that paleoseismology techniques can be effectively applied also in active volcanic environments, typically characterized by rheology and, consequently, seismicity and fault dynamics very different from those of other tectonic environments in which paleoseismology has been firstly developed and is today extensively applied.  相似文献   

Ephemeral rollover points and clinothem evolution in the modern Po Delta based on repeated bathymetric surveys     

Fabio Trincardi  Alessandro Amorosi  Alessandro Bosman  Annamaria Correggiari  Fantina Madricardo  Claudio Pellegrini 《Basin Research》2020,32(2):402-418

Reconstructions of ancient delta systems rely typically on a two-dimensional (2D) view of prograding clinothems but may miss their three-dimensional (3D) stratigraphic complexity which can, instead, be best documented on modern delta systems by integrating high-resolution geophysical data, historical cartography, core data and geomorphological reconstructions offshore. We quantitatively compare three precisely positioned, high-resolution multi-beam bathymetry maps in the delta front and pro delta sectors (0.3 to 10 m water depth) of Po di Pila, the most active of the modern Po Delta five branches. By investigating the detailed morphology of the prograding modern Po Delta, we shed new light on the mechanisms that control the topset to foreset transition in clinothems and show the temporal and spatial complexity of a delta and its pro delta slope, under the impact of oceanographic processes. This study documents the ephemeral nature of the rollover point at the transition between sandy topset (fluvial, delta plain to mouth-bar) and muddy seaward-dipping foreset deposits advancing, in this case, in >20 m of water depth. Three multibeam surveys, acquired between 2013 and 2016, document the complexity in space and time of the topset and foreset regions and their related morphology, a diagnostic feature that could not be appreciated using solely 2D, even very high-resolution, seismic profiles. In addition, the comparison of bathymetric surveys gathered with one-year lapses shows the migration of subaqueous sand dunes on the clinothem topset, the formation of ephemeral cut-and-fill features at the rollover point (few m below mean sea level), the presence of collapse depressions derived by sagging of sediments and fluid expulsion (possibly induced by storm waves) on the foreset, and splays of sand likely reflecting gravity flows on the lower foreset. Though the modern Po Delta is anthropogenic in many respects, its subaqueous clinothem can be studied as a scale model for ancient clinothems that are less resolved geometrically and far less constrained chronologically.  相似文献   

Logarithmic spiral trajectories generated by Solar sails     

Marco Bassetto  Lorenzo Niccolai  Alessandro A. Quarta  Giovanni Mengali 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2018,130(2):18

Analytic solutions to continuous thrust-propelled trajectories are available in a few cases only. An interesting case is offered by the logarithmic spiral, that is, a trajectory characterized by a constant flight path angle and a fixed thrust vector direction in an orbital reference frame. The logarithmic spiral is important from a practical point of view, because it may be passively maintained by a Solar sail-based spacecraft. The aim of this paper is to provide a systematic study concerning the possibility of inserting a Solar sail-based spacecraft into a heliocentric logarithmic spiral trajectory without using any impulsive maneuver. The required conditions to be met by the sail in terms of attitude angle, propulsive performance, parking orbit characteristics, and initial position are thoroughly investigated. The closed-form variations of the osculating orbital parameters are analyzed, and the obtained analytical results are used for investigating the phasing maneuver of a Solar sail along an elliptic heliocentric orbit. In this mission scenario, the phasing orbit is composed of two symmetric logarithmic spiral trajectories connected with a coasting arc.  相似文献   

Capture into first-order resonances and long-term stability of pairs of equal-mass planets     

Gabriele Pichierri  Alessandro Morbidelli  Aurélien Crida 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2018,130(8):54

Massive planets form within the lifetime of protoplanetary disks, and therefore, they are subject to orbital migration due to planet–disk interactions. When the first planet reaches the inner edge of the disk, its migration stops and consequently the second planet ends up locked in resonance with the first one. We detail how the resonant trapping works comparing semi-analytical formulae and numerical simulations. We restrict to the case of two equal-mass coplanar planets trapped in first-order resonances, but the method can be easily generalized. We first describe the family of resonant stable equilibrium points (zero-amplitude libration orbits) using series expansions up to different orders in eccentricity as well as a non-expanded Hamiltonian. Then we show that during convergent migration the planets evolve along these families of equilibrium points. Eccentricity damping from the disk leads to a final equilibrium configuration that we predict precisely analytically. The fact that observed multi-exoplanetary systems are rarely seen in resonances suggests that in most cases the resonant configurations achieved by migration become unstable after the removal of the protoplanetary disk. Here we probe the stability of the resonances as a function of planetary mass. For this purpose, we fictitiously increase the masses of resonant planets, adiabatically maintaining the low-amplitude libration regime until instability occurs. We discuss two hypotheses for the instability, that of a low-order secondary resonance of the libration frequency with a fast synodic frequency of the system, and that of minimal approach distance between planets. We show that secondary resonances do not seem to impact resonant systems at low amplitude of libration. Resonant systems are more stable than non-resonant ones for a given minimal distance at close encounters, but we show that the latter nevertheless play the decisive role in the destabilization of resonant pairs. We show evidence that as the planetary mass increases and the minimal distance between planets gets smaller in terms of mutual Hill radius, the region of stability around the resonance center shrinks, until the equilibrium point itself becomes unstable.  相似文献