Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction     

Antonello?PasiniEmail author  Umberto?Triacca  Alessandro?Attanasio 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):873-880

The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean–atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001–2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere–ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.  相似文献   

The Contribution of Geoelectrical Investigations in the Analysis of Periglacial and Glacial Landforms in Ice Free Areas of the Northern Foothills (Northern Victoria Land, Antarctica)     

Mauro Guglielmin  Alessandro Biasini  & Claudio Smiraglia 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》1997,79(1-2):17-24

All periglacial and glacial landforms investigated in the Northern Foothills have a very thin active layer (0.1–0.3 m thickness) overlying a thin permafrost layer, characterised by electrical resistivities ranging between 13 and 50 kΩm and by different thicknesses. Below this surficial layer, different types of ground ice (with a resistivity range from 8000 to 0.1 kΩm) were detected. These different types of ground ice permitted ice-cored rock glaciers to be distinguished from ice-cemented rock glaciers, subsea permafrost to be identified in some raised beaches, and other interpretations to be suggested about a debris-covered glacier. These results have been obtained by vertical electrical soundings (VES) carried out in ice-free areas of the Northern Foothills, near Terra Nova Bay Station during the tenth national Italian expedition in Antarctica (1994–1995). In these areas on the basis of previous geomorphological research, some landforms such as rock glaciers, raised beaches with patterned ground and debris-covered glaciers were chosen to carry out the VES. The electrical prospection can be considered a good means for understanding the origins of landforms in ice-free areas of Antarctica and for making a contribution to the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of this continent.  相似文献   

Mean-Motion Resonances as a Source for Infalling Comets toward β Pictoris     

Hervé Beust  Alessandro Morbidelli 《Icarus》1996,120(2):358-370

Repeated time-variable redshifted absorption features in the spectrum of β Pictoris (β Pic) have been attributed to comet-like bodies falling toward the star, when evaporating in its immediate vicinity. This model explains now a large number of observational characteristics, but the exact mechanism that could generate these numerous star-grazers is still controversial, even if planetary perturbations are thought to be the basic process. The different models proposed up to now are here reviewed, and we discuss in particular a recent one, involving the effect of secular resonances in the β Pic system. We stress that it seems highly improbable that such a mechanism could apply to the β Pic case, because the extremely strong power of secular resonances is connected to the very specific structure of the Solar System. Therefore, the secular resonance mechanism is highly non-generic. Conversely, we propose a model involving the eccentricity-pumping effect of mean-motion resonances with a massive planet on a moderately eccentric orbit. We show in particular that the 4:1 mean-motion resonance is a very active source of star-grazers as soon as the eccentricity of the perturbing planet is ?0.05, while the 3:1 mean-motion resonance is less efficient. We stress that this mechanism is very generic. These theoretical predictions are confirmed by numerical integrations using the Extended Schubart Integrator. The time-scale of the process is discussed, and we show that if the eccentricity of the perturbing planet fluctuates, due to secular perturbations, this time-scale is compatible with the age of β Pic's system.  相似文献   

On the relationship between Lyapunov times and macroscopic instability times     

Alessandro Morbidelli  Claude Froeschlé 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1995,63(2):227-239

On the basis of the general theory of Hamiltonian systems, we consider the relationship between Lyapunov times and macroscopic diffusion times. We find out that there are two regimes: the Nekhoroshev regime and the resonant overlapping regime. In the first case the diffusion time is exponentially long with respect to Lyapunov times. In the second case, the relationship is polynomial although we do not find any theoretical reason for the existence of a universal power law. We show numerical evidences which confirm our theoretical considerations.  相似文献   

Geomaterials related to photovoltaics: a nanostructured Fe-bearing kuramite,Cu<Subscript>3</Subscript>SnS<Subscript>4</Subscript>     

Francesco Di Benedetto  Ilaria Bencistà  Francesco D’Acapito  Silvia Frizzera  Andrea Caneschi  Massimo Innocenti  Alessandro Lavacchi  Giordano Montegrossi  Werner Oberhauser  Maurizio Romanelli  Herbert Dittrich  Luca A. Pardi  Gerold Tippelt  Georg Amthauer 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2016,43(8):535-544

The successful synthesis of nanoparticles of Fe-bearing kuramite, (Cu,Fe)₃SnS₄, is reported in this study. Nanocrystalline powders were obtained through a mild, environmentally friendly and scalable solvothermal approach, in a single run. The sample was the object of a multidisciplinary investigation, including X-ray diffraction and absorption, scanning electron microscopy and microanalysis, electron paramagnetic resonance, diffuse reflectance and Mössbauer spectroscopy as well as SQUID magnetometry. The nanoparticles consist of pure Fe-bearing kuramite, exhibiting tetragonal structure. The valence state of the metal cations was assessed to be Cu⁺, Sn⁴⁺ and Fe³⁺. The material presents a band gap value of 1.6 eV, which is fully compatible with solar cell applications. The uptake of Fe by nanokuramite opens a compositional field where the physical properties can be tuned. We thus foster the application of Fe-bearing nanokuramite for photovoltaics and energy storage purposes.  相似文献   

H-bonding scheme and cation partitioning in axinite: a single-crystal neutron diffraction and Mössbauer spectroscopic study     

G. Diego Gatta  Günther J. Redhammer  Alessandro Guastoni  Giorgio Guastella  Martin Meven  Alessandro Pavese 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2016,43(5):341-352

The crystal chemistry of a ferroaxinite from Colebrook Hill, Rosebery district, Tasmania, Australia, was investigated by electron microprobe analysis in wavelength-dispersive mode, inductively coupled plasma–atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP–AES), ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy and single-crystal neutron diffraction at 293 K. The chemical formula obtained on the basis of the ICP–AES data is the following: \( ^{X1,X2} {\text{Ca}}_{4.03} \,^{Y} \left( {{\text{Mn}}_{0.42} {\text{Mg}}_{0.23} {\text{Fe}}^{2 + }_{1.39} } \right)_{\varSigma 2.04} \,^{Z1,Z2} \left( {{\text{Fe}}^{3 + }_{0.15} {\text{Al}}_{3.55} {\text{Ti}}_{0.12} } \right)_{\varSigma 3.82} \,^{T1,T2,T3,T4} \left( {{\text{Ti}}_{0.03} {\text{Si}}_{7.97} } \right)_{\varSigma 8} \,^{T5} {\text{B}}_{1.96} {\text{O}}_{30} \left( {\text{OH}} \right)_{2.18} \). The ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectrum shows unambiguously the occurrence of Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺ in octahedral coordination only, with Fe²⁺/Fe³⁺ = 9:1. The neutron structure refinement provides a structure model in general agreement with the previous experimental findings: the tetrahedral T1, T2, T3 and T4 sites are fully occupied by Si, whereas the T5 site is fully occupied by B, with no evidence of Si at the T5, or Al or Fe³⁺ at the T1–T5 sites. The structural and chemical data of this study suggest that the amount of B in ferroaxinite is that expected from the ideal stoichiometry: 2 a.p.f.u. (for 32 O). The atomic distribution among the X1, X2, Y, Z1 and Z2 sites obtained by neutron structure refinement is in good agreement with that based on the ICP–AES data. For the first time, an unambiguous localization of the H site is obtained, which forms a hydroxyl group with the oxygen atom at the O16 site as donor. The H-bonding scheme in axinite structure is now fully described: the O16–H distance (corrected for riding motion effect) is 0.991(1) Å and an asymmetric bifurcated bonding configuration occurs, with O5 and O13 as acceptors [i.e. with O16···O5 = 3.096(1) Å, H···O5 = 2.450(1) Å and O16–H···O5 = 123.9(1)°; O16···O13 = 2.777(1) Å, H···O13 = 1.914(1) Å and O16–H···O13 = 146.9(1)°].  相似文献   

Thermodynamics and phonon dispersion of pyrope and grossular silicate garnets from ab initio simulations     

Jacopo Baima  Matteo Ferrabone  Roberto Orlando  Alessandro Erba  Roberto Dovesi 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2016,43(2):137-149

The phonon dispersion and thermodynamic properties of pyrope (\(\hbox {Mg}_3\hbox {Al}_2\hbox {Si}_3\hbox {O}_{12}\)) and grossular (\(\hbox {Ca}_3\hbox {Al}_2\hbox {Si}_3\hbox {O}_{12}\) ) have been computed by using an ab initio quantum mechanical approach, an all-electron variational Gaussian-type basis set and the B3LYP hybrid functional, as implemented in the Crystal program. Dispersion effects in the phonon bands have been simulated by using supercells of increasing size, containing 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280 and 2160 atoms, corresponding to 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 27 \(\mathbf {k}\) points in the first Brillouin zone. Phonon band structures, density of states and corresponding inelastic neutron scattering spectra are reported. Full convergence of the various thermodynamic properties, in particular entropy (S) and specific heat at constant volume (\(C_\mathrm{{V}}\)), with the number of \(\mathbf {k}\) points is achieved with 27 \(\mathbf {k}\) points. The very regular behavior of the S(T) and \(C_\mathrm{{V}}(T)\) curves as a function of the number of \(\mathbf {k}\) points, determined by high numerical stability of the code, permits extrapolation to an infinite number of \(\mathbf {k}\) points. The limiting value differs from the 27-\(\mathbf {k}\) case by only 0.40 % at 100 K for S (the difference decreasing to 0.11 % at 1000 K) and by 0.29 % (0.05 % at 1000 K) for \(C_\mathrm{{V}}\). The agreement with the experimental data is rather satisfactory. We also address the problem of the relative entropy of pyrope and grossular, a still debated question. Our lattice dynamical calculations correctly describe the larger entropy of pyrope than grossular by taking into account merely vibrational contributions and without invoking “static disorder” of the Mg ions in dodecahedral sites. However, as the computed entropy difference is found to be larger than the experimental one by a factor of 2–3, present calculations cannot exclude possible thermally induced structural changes, which could lead to further conformational contributions to the entropy.  相似文献   

Integrating agriculture and energy to assess GHG emissions reduction: a methodological approach     

Alessandro Chiodi  Trevor Donnellan  James Breen  Paul Deane  Kevin Hanrahan  Maurizio Gargiulo 《Climate Policy》2016,16(2):215-236

Agriculture is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic global GHG emissions. This significant share highlights the fundamental importance of the agricultural sector in the global GHG emissions reduction challenge. This article develops and tests a methodology for the integration of agricultural and energy systems modelling. The goal of the research is to extend an energy systems modelling approach to agriculture in order to provide richer insights into the dynamics and interactions between the two (e.g. in competition for land-use). We build Agri-TIMES, an agricultural systems module using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework, to model the effect of livestock emissions and explore emissions reduction options. The research focuses on Ireland, which is an interesting test case for two reasons: first, agriculture currently accounts for about 30% of Ireland's GHG emissions, significantly higher than other industrialized countries yet comparable with global levels (here including emissions associated with other land-use change and forestation); second, Ireland is both a complete and reasonably sized agricultural system to act as a test case for this new approach. This article describes the methodology used, the data requirements, and technical assumptions made to facilitate the modelling. It also presents results to illustrate the approach and provide associated initial insights.

Policy relevance

Most of the policy focus with regard to climate mitigation targets has been on reducing energy-related CO₂ emissions, which is understandable as they represent by far the largest source of emissions. Non-energy-related GHG emissions – largely from agriculture, industrial processes, and waste – have received significantly less attention in policy discourse. Going forward, however, if significant cuts are made in energy-related CO₂ emissions, the role of non-energy-related GHG emissions will grow in importance. It is therefore crucial that climate mitigation analyses and strategies are not limited to the energy system. This article shows the value of using integrated energy and agriculture techno-economic modelling techniques to draw evidence for new comprehensive climate policy strategies able to discern between the full range of technical solutions available. It enables the production of economy-wide least-cost climate mitigation pathways.  相似文献   

A multi-disciplinary study of deformation of the basaltic cover over fine-grained valley fills: a case study from Eastern Sardinia,Italy     

Rita Deiana  Iginio Dieni  Francesco Massari  Maria Teresa Perri  Matteo Rossi  Alessandro Brovelli 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(4):1245-1255

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A decision tree tool supporting the assessment of groundwater vulnerability     

Christine Stumpp  Anna J. Żurek  Przemysław Wachniew  Alessandro Gargini  Alexandra Gemitzi  Maria Filippini  Stanisław Witczak 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(13):1057

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