Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin     

Mohammed A. Elganiny  Alaa Esmail Eldwer 《Water Resources》2018,45(5):660-671

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.  相似文献   

Improving sustainability of urban drainage systems for climate change adaptation using best management practices: a case study of Tehran,Iran     

Negin Binesh  Amin Sarang  Wolfgang Rauch 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(4):381-404

Although the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) in reducing urban flooding is widely recognized, the improved sustainability achieved by implementing BMPs in upstream suburban areas, reducing downstream urban floods, is still debated. This study introduces a new definition of urban drainage system (UDS) sustainability, focusing on BMP usage to enhance system performance after adaptation to climate change. Three types of hydraulic reliability index (HRI) plus robustness and improvability indices were used to quantify the potential enhanced sustainability of the system in a changing climate, together with a climate change adaptability index (CCAI). The sustainability of UDS for the safe conveyance of storm-water runoff was investigated under different land-use scenarios: No BMP, BMP in urban areas, and BMP inside and upstream of urban areas, considering climate change impacts. Rainfall–runoff simulation alongside drainage network modelling was conducted using a storm-water management model (US EPA SWMM) to determine the inundation areas for both base-line and future climatic conditions. A new method for disaggregating daily rainfall to hourly, proposed to provide a finer resolution of input rainfall to SWMM, was applied to a semi-urbanized catchment whose upstream runoff from mountainous areas may contribute to the storm-water runoff in downstream urban parts. Our findings confirm an increase in the number of inundation points and reduction in sustainability indices of UDS due to climate change. The results present an increase in UDS reliability from 4% to 16% and improvements in other sustainability indicators using BMPs in upstream suburban areas compared to implementing them in urban areas.  相似文献   

Possibility of the Application of Danube,Sava and Morava River Area Shallow Aquifer Groundwater (Serbia) in the Irrigation Purposes     

Sanja Mrazovac Kurilić  Staletović  Novica  Abulsba  Khalil Salem  Dagali  Khaled Salem 《Water Resources》2019,46(6):861-870

Water Resources - This paper presents the results of the groundwater quality assessment, on the Serbian Danube, Sava and Morava River water area, for irrigation purposes. The analysis was done at...  相似文献   

Vorticity analysis in the Zagros orogen,Shiraz area,Iran     

Sarkarinejad  Khalil  Heibati  Zahra 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2017,106(6):2041-2065

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Quantitative vorticity analyses in orogenic belts are essential for studying the kinematics of deformation and can be performed using a range of methods....  相似文献   

An integrated object-based image analysis and CA-Markov model approach for modeling land use/land cover trends in the Sarab plain     

Amin Naboureh  Mohammad Hossein Rezaei Moghaddam  Bakhtiar Feizizadeh  Thomas Blaschke 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(12):259

The present paper is an attempt to integrate a semi-automated object-based image analysis (OBIA) classification framework and a cellular automata-Markov model to study land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Land use maps for the Sarab plain in Iran for the years 2000, 2006, and 2014 were created from Landsat satellite data, by applying an OBIA classification using the normalized difference vegetation index, salinity index, moisture stress index, soil-adjusted vegetation index, and elevation and slope indicators. The classifications yielded overall accuracies of 91, 93, and 94% for 2000, 2006, and 2014, respectively. Finally, using the transition matrix, the spatial distribution of land use was simulated for 2020. The results of the study revealed that the number of orchards with irrigated agriculture and dry-farm agriculture in the Sarab plain is increasing, while the amount of bare land is decreasing. The results of this research are of great importance for regional authorities and decision makers in strategic land use planning.  相似文献   

Designing infill directional drilling in mineral exploration by using particle swarm optimization algorithm     

Moslem Fatehi  Hooshang Asadi Haroni  Amin Hossein Morshedy 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(22):487

Geostatistical optimization in designing infill boreholes is an important cost-effective approach in increasing the accuracy of the tonnage and grade of an ore deposit. In this research, a new approach is proposed to design the optimum infill directional boreholes. In the proposed approach, the Kriging estimation variance is considered as the objective function and the number and properties of the optimum boreholes are estimated to minimize the objective function. The optimization procedure is implemented by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Range of the spatial and directional properties of new boreholes is determined by considering the primary information of the mineralization and administrative constraint of drilling. Then, the PSO algorithm is iteratively applied, and in each iteration, the variation of the estimated Kriging variance after drilling the new boreholes is determined and properties of the new boreholes are updated. The iterative procedure of the algorithm is continued until minimum Kriging variance is satisfied. The approach was applied to the Dalli Cu-Au porphyry deposit in Iran and three new infill directional boreholes were designed by considering six earlier boreholes from the preliminary exploration stage. New optimum boreholes were located where less information from the preliminary exploration stage exists and the highest variance is considered. Two new boreholes are near to vertical (78°) and the third is an inclined with 55° dip. By drilling these three new boreholes, the estimated grade model could be upgraded by 20%. For simplicity, quickness and the ability to search for the required numbers and specifications of a group of directional boreholes in a 3D environment are the most advantages aspects of the proposed approach.  相似文献   

3D Gravity Inversion of Northern Sinai Peninsula: A Case Study     

Mohamed A. Khalil  Fernando M. Santos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(7):1557-1569

The Sinai Peninsula has attracted the attention of many geological and geophysical studies as it is influenced and bounded by major tectonic events. Those are (1) the Mesozoic to Early Cenozoic tectonically active opening of the Tethys, (2) the Late Cretaceous to Early Tertiary (Laramide) Syrian arc system, due to closing of the Tethys (3) the Oligo-Miocene Gulf of Suez rifted basin, and (4) the Late Miocene to Recent transform Dead Sea–Gulf of Aqaba rift. Additionally, the shear zones inside Sinai such as the Ragabet El-Naam and Minsherah-Abu Kandu Shear Zones. Each of these major tectonic events has affected dramatically the structure evolution of the northern Sinai area. The present paper estimates the 3D density contrast model using the gravity data of northern Sinai. The estimated 3D density contrast model elucidated the peculiarities of the main structural elements in the region. The estimated 3D density contrast model showed the high and low gravity anomalies that form the main mountains and main valleys in northern Sinai. The estimated low density zones are in agreement with the inferred faults resulting from the first horizontal derivative. Comparing the 3D model with the tectonic history of the region and the results of the first horizontal derivative and least square separation increased the reliability of the model.  相似文献   

Establishing a predictive performance indicator for real‐time hybrid simulation          下载免费PDF全文

Amin Maghareh  Shirley J. Dyke  Arun Prakash  Gregory B. Bunting 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(15):2299-2318

Real‐time hybrid simulation (RTHS) is increasingly being recognized as a powerful cyber‐physical technique that offers the opportunity for system evaluation of civil structures subject to extreme dynamic loading. Advances in this field are enabling researchers to evaluate new structural components/systems in cost‐effective and efficient ways, under more realistic conditions. For RTHS, performance metric clearly needs to be developed to predict and evaluate the accuracy of various partitioning choices while incorporating the dynamics of the transfer system, and computational/communication delays. In addition, because of the dynamics of the transfer system, communication delays, and computation delays, the RTHS equilibrium force at the interface between numerical and physical substructures is subject to phase discrepancy. Thus, the transfer system dynamics must be accommodated by appropriate actuator controllers. In this paper, a new performance indicator, predictive performance indicator (PPI), is proposed to assess the sensitivity of an RTHS configuration to any phase discrepancy resulting from transfer system dynamics and computational/communication delays. The predictive performance indicator provides a structural engineer with two sets of information as follows: (i) in the absence of a reference response, what is the level of fidelity of the RTHS response? and (ii) if needed, what partitioning adjustments can be made to effectively enhance the fidelity of the response? Moreover, along with the RTHS stability switch criterion, this performance metric may be used as an acceptance criteria for conducting single‐degree‐of‐freedom RTHS. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Atmospheric Nitrogen and Phosphorus Deposition at Three Sites in Nanjing,China, and Possible Links to Nitrogen Deposition Sources   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Liying Sun  Yinglie Liu  Jinyang Wang  Mohammad Aslam K. Khalil  Jianwen Zou  Zhengqin Xiong 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(11):1650-1659

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Cometabolic Degradation Kinetics of Trichloroethylene Based on Toluene Enhancement by Encapsulated Burkholderia cepacia G4          下载免费PDF全文

Shanawar Hamid  Muhammad T. Amin  Abdulrahman A. Alazba  Umair Manzoor  Muhammad N. Amin 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(11):1642-1649

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