Identification of factors influencing hydrologic model performance using a top-down approach in a large number of U.S. catchments     

Carolina Massmann 《水文研究》2020,34(1):4-20

Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales.  相似文献   

Environmental factors influencing aggregation of manta rays (Manta birostris) off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula          下载免费PDF全文

Ana Hacohen‐Domené  Raúl O. Martínez‐Rincón  Felipe Galván‐Magaña  Natalí Cárdenas‐Palomo  Jorge Herrera‐Silveira 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(3)

Manta rays inhabit tropical, subtropical and temperate waters. Aggregation sites of manta rays have been recognized worldwide, but the reasons for this behavior are still poorly understood. This study describes environmental factors influencing aggregation sites of the giant manta ray (Manta birostris) off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Observations of manta rays were obtained from scientific surveys conducted during 2006–2011. Environmental data were obtained from satellite imagery. The maximum entropy (Maxent) method for habitat modeling was used to determine the effects of environmental conditions on the species and predict suitable habitat for manta rays in this region. Primary productivity and distance to the coast were the most influential variables, suggesting that aggregation occurs in highly productive coastal waters. The distribution of manta rays predicted by the Maxent model showed that the most suitable habitat within the study area is located off the northeastern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula, more precisely, northeast of Isla Holbox and northwest of Isla Contoy. Seasonal patterns of distribution suggest that the most suitable conditions are present from July through September.  相似文献   

Process-based forward numerical ecological modeling for carbonate sedimentary basins     

Roger Clavera-Gispert  Òscar Gratacós  Ana Carmona  Raimon Tolosana-Delgado 《Computational Geosciences》2017,21(3):373-391

Nowadays, numerical modeling is a common tool used in the study of sedimentary basins, since it allows to quantify the processes simulated and to determine interactions among them. One of such programs is SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, a 3D forward-model process-based code to simulate the sedimentation in a marine basin at a geological time scale. It models the fluid flow, siliciclastic transport and sedimentation, and carbonate production. In this article, we present the last improvements in the carbonate production model, in particular about the usage of Generalized Lotka-Volterra equations that include logistic growth and interaction among species. Logistic growth is constrained by environmental parameters such as water depth, energy of the medium, and depositional profile. The environmental parameters are converted to factors and combined into one single environmental value to model the evolution of species. The interaction among species is quantified using the community matrix that captures the beneficial or detrimental effects of the presence of each species on the other. A theoretical example of a carbonate ramp is computed to show the interaction among carbonate and siliciclastic sediment, the effect of environmental parameters to the modeled species associations, and the interaction among these species associations. The distribution of the modeled species associations in the theoretical example presented is compared with the carbonate Oligocene-Miocene Asmari Formation in Iran and the Miocene Ragusa Platform in Italy.  相似文献   

A New Appraisal of Sri Lankan BB Zircon as a Reference Material for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb Geochronology and Lu‐Hf Isotope Tracing          下载免费PDF全文

Maristella M. Santos  Cristiano Lana  Ricardo Scholz  Ian Buick  Mark D. Schmitz  Sandra L. Kamo  Axel Gerdes  Fernando Corfu  Simon Tapster  Penelope Lancaster  Craig D. Storey  Miguel A.S. Basei  Eric Tohver  Ana Alkmim  Herminio Nalini  Klaus Krambrock  Cristiano Fantini  Michael Wiedenbeck 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2017,41(3):335-358

A potential zircon reference material (BB zircon) for laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) U‐Pb geochronology and Hf isotope geochemistry is described. A batch of twenty zircon megacrysts (0.5–1.5 cm³) from Sri Lanka was studied. Within‐grain rare earth element (REE) compositions are largely homogeneous, albeit with some variation seen between fractured and homogeneous domains. Excluding fractured cathodoluminescence bright domains, the variation in U content for all analysed crystals ranged from 227 to 368 μg g^?1 and the average Th/U ratios were between 0.20 and 0.47. The Hf isotope composition (0.56–0.84 g/100 g Hf) is homogeneous within and between the grains – mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf of 0.281674 ± 0.000018 (2s). The calculated alpha dose of 0.59 × 10¹⁸ g^?1 for a number of BB grains falls within the trend of previously studied, untreated zircon samples from Sri Lanka. Aliquots of the same crystal (analysed by ID‐TIMS in four different laboratories) gave consistent U‐Pb ages with excellent measurement reproducibility (0.1–0.4% RSD). Interlaboratory assessment (by LA‐ICP‐MS) from individual crystals returned results that are within uncertainty equivalent to the TIMS ages. Finally, we report on within‐ and between‐grain homogeneity of the oxygen isotope systematic of four BB crystals (13.16‰ VSMOW).  相似文献   

Episodic Biogeochemical Variability in a Low-Flow Mediterranean Estuary     

Gotzon Basterretxea  Antoni Jordi  Marly Carolina Martínez-Soto  Antonio Tovar-Sánchez 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(5):1247-1262

To investigate to what extent episodic physical processes regulate nutrient availability and phytoplankton assemblages of the Mahon estuary (Minorca Island), we carried out an intensive field study during 2010–2011. During the study period, environmental conditions spanned from intense stratification to a continuous mixing and from lack of riverine inflow to intense runoff. Our data reveals a sequence of biogeochemical states of the estuary that result from the interplay between runoff, other non-periodic forcings (winds, sea level oscillations), and variations in water renewal. Seasonal runoff was revealed as a major driver of winter circulation and of the influx of inorganic nutrients, in particular nitrate. However, because of the combination between runoff and flushing time, the effects of floodwater events on phytoplankton are short-lived (days). Conversely, during summer, when freshwater influx declines, water renewal relies on pulsed atmospheric forcing that may be of local or remote origin. As depicted from the low nitrate concentrations (<1 μM) and enhanced ammonium (>1 μM), this change in circulation and external loads carries nutrient assimilation within the estuary head and forces the use of remnant nutrients through regenerating pathways to sustain an enhanced phytoplankton biomass at the lower estuary. Episodic variability represented between 52 and 65% of the annual chlorophyll variance. Despite the fact that episodic pulses represented intense departures from base biogeochemical state of the estuary, at time scale larger than weeks, the phytoplankton community composition and dynamics was largely regulated by the integrated effect of these episodes and other environmental drivers associated with seasonality rather than by individual storm events only. Our results suggest that even though the system presents good recovery capacity to individual storm episodes, it may be more vulnerable to increased nutrient fluxes during summer, as well as to changes in episode timing and frequency.  相似文献   

Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004–2013     

Alexander Eleftheriou  Carolina Filizzola  Nicola Genzano  Teodosio Lacava  Mariano Lisi  Rossana Paciello  Nicola Pergola  Filippos Vallianatos  Valerio Tramutoli 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(1):285-303

Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth’s emitted radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years (2004–2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability—CSEP—Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space–time window around (M ≥ 4) earthquake's time and location of occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of false positives registered on a so long testing period, seems already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST approach and RETIRA index) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to t-DASH.  相似文献   

A long-term record of land use change impacts on sediments in Oualidia lagoon,Morocco     

Mehdi MAANAN  Ana Carolina RUIZ-FERNNDEZ  Mohamed MAANAN  Paul FATTAL  Bendahhou ZOURARAH  Mohamed SAHABI 《国际泥沙研究》2014,29(1):1-10

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NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS CONTROLLING GULLY EROSION IN THEBASALTIC UPLAND OF SOUTHERN BRAZIL     

Ana C. VIERO Nilza M. dos Reis CASTRO Joel A. GOLDENFUM Alfonso RISSO 《国际泥沙研究》2005,20(3):211-223

This paper describes an analysis of natural and anthropogenic factors controlling the evolution of gullies in a rural basin in the basaltic upland in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. In this region of deep ferrallitic soils with more than 60% clay, runoff and erosion are of increasing concern. In the TaboAo drainage basin （100 km^2）, gully erosion was studied in a field survey that measured rills and gullies. Eighty-four gullies were identified. They had an average length of 136 m, were 10 m wide, and 3 m deep and had a volume of 15.458 m3. Each gully was characterised in terms of factors that included slope, geological structure, presence of piping, drainage, soil use, and the presence of surface and subsurface flow. On average, the main channels had knickpoints varying from 2 m to 7 m, and their evolution in the vertical plane increased until bed-rock basalt material was reached, after which gullies increase in width and length. Gully development was also monitored from 1991 to 2003. Subsurface flow appears to be the principal agent controlling their development. Results show that both natural （slope, surface curvature, geological structure and rainfall） and anthropogenic （soil use, road construction） factors are important in gully development. The change in cultural practices throughout the drainage basin from conventional to direct seeding has led to increased subsurface flow, which was more important than surface runoff in causing erosion. However, the higher rainfall during E1 Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events and the consequently higher subsurface flow were the dominant factors. From 1991 to 2003 a total land loss of 1,013 m3 was observed in one gully, with 236 m^3 lost during the 1992 ENSO and 702 m3 during the 1997 ENSO; 95% of the total volume lost occurred during ENSO periods.  相似文献   

High-Resolution Records of the Holocene Paleoenvironmental Variation Reflected by Carbonate and Its Isotopic Compositions in Bosten Lake and Response to Glacial Activities   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Chengjun  ZHENG Mianping  Alexander PROKOPENKO  Steffen MISCHKE  GOU Xiaohui  YANG Qili  ZHANG Wanyi  FENG Zhaodong 《《地质学报》英文版》2009,83(6):1101-1115

Abstract: The Early Holocene paleoclimate in Bosten Lake on the northern margin of the Tarim Basin, southern Xinjiang, is reconstructed through an analysis of a 953 cm long core (BSTC2000) taken from Bosten Lake. Multiple proxies of this core, including the mineral components of carbonate, carbonate content, stable isotopic compositions of carbonate, Ca/Sr, TOC and C/N and C/S of organic matter, are used to reconstruct the climatic change since 8500 a B.P. The chronology model is made by nine AMS 14C ages of leaves, seeds and organic matter contained in two parallel cores. The climate was cold and wet during 8500 to 8100 a B.P. Temperature increased from 8100 to 6400 a B.P., the climate was warm and humid, and the lake expanded. The lake level was highest during this stage. Then from 6400 to 5100 a B.P., the climate became cold and the lake level decreased slightly. During the late mid-Holocene, the climate was hot and dry from 5100 to 3100 a B.P., but there was a short cold period during 4400 to 3800 a B.P. At this temporal interval, a mass of ice and snow melting water supplied the lake at the early time and made the lake level rise. The second highest lake level stage occurred during 5200 to 3800 a B.P. The climate was cool and wet during 3100 to 2200 a B.P., when the lake expanded with decreasing evaporation. The lake had the last short-term high level during 3100 to 2800 a B.P. After this short high lake level period, the lake shrank because of the long-term lower temperature and reduced water supply. From 2200 to 1200 a B.P., the climate was hot and dry, and the lake shrank greatly. Although the temperature decreased somewhat from 1200 a B.P. to the present, the climate was warm and dry. The lake level began to rise a little again, but it did not reach the river bed altitude of the Konqi River, an outflow river of the Bosten Lake.  相似文献   

Assessment of the effects of a marine urban outfall discharge on caged mussels using chemical and biomarker analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

de los Ríos A  Juanes JA  Ortiz-Zarragoitia M  López de Alda M  Barceló D  Cajaraville MP 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(3):563-573

To assess the presence of endocrine disruptors in treated marine outfall discharges and their possible effects, mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) were caged in the environmental mixing zone of the outfall of the Santander sanitation system and in one control area. After 30, 60 and 90 days, samples were collected to perform chemical analyses (metals, anionic surfactants, alkylphenols, bisphenol A, phthalates and estrogenic hormones), biomarkers of general stress (lysosomal membrane stability-LMS, histopathology) and biomarkers of endocrine disruption (vitellogenin-like proteins and gonad index). There were no significant differences between outfall and control sites on contaminant levels, except for 4-tert-octylphenol which was higher in the outfall site. Bacteriological counts were higher in the outfall area. No relevant differences in biomarkers were detected between treated and control mussels. A significant reduction in LMS occurred in both groups after 90 days caging, indicating a stress situation possibly related to caging or to post-spawning reproductive state.  相似文献